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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| China party congress: old guard finds it hard to let go | China party congress: old guard finds it hard to let go |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| The melody to a long-forgotten song for the 1930s movie Jungle Princess. A hefty donation to a scholarship fund for poor students. Prominent seats at the women's finals at the China Open. | The melody to a long-forgotten song for the 1930s movie Jungle Princess. A hefty donation to a scholarship fund for poor students. Prominent seats at the women's finals at the China Open. |
| From such apparently disparate strands, analysts discern a common theme: the re-emergence of China's former party leaders just as incumbents prepare to hand power to younger figures this week. | From such apparently disparate strands, analysts discern a common theme: the re-emergence of China's former party leaders just as incumbents prepare to hand power to younger figures this week. |
| When the 18th party congress opened last Thursday, the three generations took their places at the front of the dais in Beijing's Great Hall of the People. The anointed heir, Xi Jinping, commanded less attention than former general secretary Jiang Zemin, seated next to current leader Hu Jintao. | When the 18th party congress opened last Thursday, the three generations took their places at the front of the dais in Beijing's Great Hall of the People. The anointed heir, Xi Jinping, commanded less attention than former general secretary Jiang Zemin, seated next to current leader Hu Jintao. |
| Other elders further down the table were easily identified by their fading locks – though former premier Li Peng, with his startlingly black brows, is clearly still wedded to the dye used by those in office. | Other elders further down the table were easily identified by their fading locks – though former premier Li Peng, with his startlingly black brows, is clearly still wedded to the dye used by those in office. |
| The meeting, which concludes in Beijing on Wednesday, demonstrates the Communist party's attempts to institutionalise politics and contain the power of individuals. Introducing set terms and age limits was supposed to ensure smooth transitions. | The meeting, which concludes in Beijing on Wednesday, demonstrates the Communist party's attempts to institutionalise politics and contain the power of individuals. Introducing set terms and age limits was supposed to ensure smooth transitions. |
| But the enduring role of retired leaders illustrates the limits of that project and the extent to which power in China is still about personalities and patronage. | But the enduring role of retired leaders illustrates the limits of that project and the extent to which power in China is still about personalities and patronage. |
| "From Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin, to Hu Jintao, to Xi Jinping, the tradition carries on," said independent scholar Chen Ziming. | "From Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin, to Hu Jintao, to Xi Jinping, the tradition carries on," said independent scholar Chen Ziming. |
| While elders might not challenge the incumbents' overall stance, said Chen, "they do pay attention to key events – especially political reform, their historical reputation or evaluation, and their children or relatives' career arrangements." | While elders might not challenge the incumbents' overall stance, said Chen, "they do pay attention to key events – especially political reform, their historical reputation or evaluation, and their children or relatives' career arrangements." |
| Last year, 86-year-old Jiang was so low profile that a Hong Kong television station was forced to apologise for wrongly reporting his death, which had been widely rumoured. This year, he has met the Starbucks CEO, attended a concert and written a verse for his old school. | Last year, 86-year-old Jiang was so low profile that a Hong Kong television station was forced to apologise for wrongly reporting his death, which had been widely rumoured. This year, he has met the Starbucks CEO, attended a concert and written a verse for his old school. |
| Both People's Daily – the official Communist party newspaper – and a state television channel devoted coverage last month to former leader Li Lanqing's search for the sheet music to Moonlight and Shadows, from a Dorothy Lamour film. His patron Jiang had been able to write the song's tune and lyrics from memory, it noted. It was, surmised analysts, a not particularly subtle hint about his continuing vigour and alertness. | Both People's Daily – the official Communist party newspaper – and a state television channel devoted coverage last month to former leader Li Lanqing's search for the sheet music to Moonlight and Shadows, from a Dorothy Lamour film. His patron Jiang had been able to write the song's tune and lyrics from memory, it noted. It was, surmised analysts, a not particularly subtle hint about his continuing vigour and alertness. |
| Like former premier Li Peng's 3m yuan (£300,000) donation to a scholarship fund, and the attendance of another elder, Li Ruihuan, at the tennis match, such forays into the public eye are intended to signal that retired leaders are still around and active, say analysts. | Like former premier Li Peng's 3m yuan (£300,000) donation to a scholarship fund, and the attendance of another elder, Li Ruihuan, at the tennis match, such forays into the public eye are intended to signal that retired leaders are still around and active, say analysts. |
| Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based political analyst, said their role reflected the hierarchical nature of Chinese political culture and tendency to venerate the old – but also, paradoxically, the introduction of hard and fast retirement rules. "They don't jump so much as are pushed – and they are not reluctant to push back," he noted. | Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based political analyst, said their role reflected the hierarchical nature of Chinese political culture and tendency to venerate the old – but also, paradoxically, the introduction of hard and fast retirement rules. "They don't jump so much as are pushed – and they are not reluctant to push back," he noted. |
| Feng Chongyi, an expert on Chinese politics at the University of Technology, Sydney, argued that they mainly influenced personnel choices. Jiang is widely reported to have played a key role in the choice of the new politburo standing committee – the top political body – pushing out candidates favoured by Hu. | Feng Chongyi, an expert on Chinese politics at the University of Technology, Sydney, argued that they mainly influenced personnel choices. Jiang is widely reported to have played a key role in the choice of the new politburo standing committee – the top political body – pushing out candidates favoured by Hu. |
| "The patronage networks are extremely important for the protection and promotion of senior officials in China. There are strong mutual demands between patrons and clients. Jiang and other elders are making desperate efforts to support their protégés," said Feng. | "The patronage networks are extremely important for the protection and promotion of senior officials in China. There are strong mutual demands between patrons and clients. Jiang and other elders are making desperate efforts to support their protégés," said Feng. |
| Not only do they want to protect their political legacies, but many also have families who have prospered in business – and whose fortunes could be made or broken by state policy. | Not only do they want to protect their political legacies, but many also have families who have prospered in business – and whose fortunes could be made or broken by state policy. |
| But Jiang's re-emergence may say as much about the party as about him. Some analysts think he has taken advantage of a vacuum; others see him as effect as much as cause, stepping in to voice broader frustrations with the current administration. | But Jiang's re-emergence may say as much about the party as about him. Some analysts think he has taken advantage of a vacuum; others see him as effect as much as cause, stepping in to voice broader frustrations with the current administration. |
| The sense that reforms have stalled over the last decade "helped Jiang Zemin rally a certain number of people; even leaders who didn't belong to the Shanghai clique and are not particularly close to him," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan of Hong Kong Baptist University. | The sense that reforms have stalled over the last decade "helped Jiang Zemin rally a certain number of people; even leaders who didn't belong to the Shanghai clique and are not particularly close to him," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan of Hong Kong Baptist University. |
| But, he warned, the intervention of elders contributes to the paralysis of the whole system, as vested interests accumulate. | But, he warned, the intervention of elders contributes to the paralysis of the whole system, as vested interests accumulate. |
| Xi boasts the advantages of a revered revolutionary family and the backing of Jiang, who is thought to have been critical in his elevation. Yet he will have two predecessors and many more elders in the shadows. | Xi boasts the advantages of a revered revolutionary family and the backing of Jiang, who is thought to have been critical in his elevation. Yet he will have two predecessors and many more elders in the shadows. |
| "Are [elders] going to trust Xi Jinping as the new CEO of China and remain as board members meeting every year or so to evaluate results?" asked Cabestan. "The more retired emperors you have got, the more complicated the game is." | "Are [elders] going to trust Xi Jinping as the new CEO of China and remain as board members meeting every year or so to evaluate results?" asked Cabestan. "The more retired emperors you have got, the more complicated the game is." |
| Chen said that in theory Xi could rule without consulting the elders, but that his style made it unlikely. | Chen said that in theory Xi could rule without consulting the elders, but that his style made it unlikely. |
| "None of the laws or regulations or people's opinions say he has to," he noted. | "None of the laws or regulations or people's opinions say he has to," he noted. |
| "But Xi was chosen to be the next leader because he fit the requirements and is after their minds." | "But Xi was chosen to be the next leader because he fit the requirements and is after their minds." |
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