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| Police commissioner elections: will enough people vote? | Police commissioner elections: will enough people vote? |
| (8 days later) | |
| Finding a better way of holding the police to account has long been a cherished ambition for the three main political parties. | Finding a better way of holding the police to account has long been a cherished ambition for the three main political parties. |
| Labour has twice recently proposed directly electing police authority chairmen, and the Liberal Democrats went into the last election with a manifesto commitment to directly elect police authorities. | Labour has twice recently proposed directly electing police authority chairmen, and the Liberal Democrats went into the last election with a manifesto commitment to directly elect police authorities. |
| So there should be little surprise that the Conservatives have pushed ahead with their flagship plan for directly elected police and crime commissioners (PCCs). | So there should be little surprise that the Conservatives have pushed ahead with their flagship plan for directly elected police and crime commissioners (PCCs). |
| But despite this apparent political consensus, the first ever PCC elections will be held on 15 November in 41 police force areas across England and Wales, with little or no apparent enthusiasm from either Westminster politicians or, more importantly, the public. | But despite this apparent political consensus, the first ever PCC elections will be held on 15 November in 41 police force areas across England and Wales, with little or no apparent enthusiasm from either Westminster politicians or, more importantly, the public. |
| One particularly doom-laden forecast, based on an Ipsos MORI poll taken more than three weeks ago, suggests that only 15% of the 40 million adults outside London eligible to vote are certain to do so. | One particularly doom-laden forecast, based on an Ipsos MORI poll taken more than three weeks ago, suggests that only 15% of the 40 million adults outside London eligible to vote are certain to do so. |
| The actual turnout this Thursday will be higher than that, but whether it is high enough to deliver the kind of democratic mandate that a newly elected commissioner needs in any future, high-profile clash with their chief constable must be open to doubt. | The actual turnout this Thursday will be higher than that, but whether it is high enough to deliver the kind of democratic mandate that a newly elected commissioner needs in any future, high-profile clash with their chief constable must be open to doubt. |
| The birth of this new breed of politicians has not been easy. The first elections were supposed to take place in the bright May sunshine along with the rest of the local elections, including the London contest that led to Boris Johnson's re-election. | The birth of this new breed of politicians has not been easy. The first elections were supposed to take place in the bright May sunshine along with the rest of the local elections, including the London contest that led to Boris Johnson's re-election. |
| But an alliance of Lib Dem peers and retired senior police officers in the House of Lords, concerned about the impact of direct party politics on policing, secured a six-month delay. The idea was that the first wave of directly elected mayors would happen at the same time, however all but one for Bristol were vetoed in local referendums, leaving the commissioners looking like a jilted bride at the wedding altar. | But an alliance of Lib Dem peers and retired senior police officers in the House of Lords, concerned about the impact of direct party politics on policing, secured a six-month delay. The idea was that the first wave of directly elected mayors would happen at the same time, however all but one for Bristol were vetoed in local referendums, leaving the commissioners looking like a jilted bride at the wedding altar. |
| The Home Office has already spent millions trying to redeem the situation. A £3m advertising campaign, with prime-time spots during Downton Abbey and the X Factor, has succeeded at least in raising awareness of the elections to 63% of the public. But Cabinet Office rules on purdah meant that successful initiative had to end a fortnight ago. Since then, the Home Office has been relying on the goodwill of broadcasters. | The Home Office has already spent millions trying to redeem the situation. A £3m advertising campaign, with prime-time spots during Downton Abbey and the X Factor, has succeeded at least in raising awareness of the elections to 63% of the public. But Cabinet Office rules on purdah meant that successful initiative had to end a fortnight ago. Since then, the Home Office has been relying on the goodwill of broadcasters. |
| On top of this, there has been a Dad's Army quality to the whole enterprise that the late Clive Dunn would have appreciated. More than 2m English-only ballot papers in Wales have had to be shredded because there was at the time no legal authority to print a bilingual version. A second set of ballot papers in English and Welsh has added £350,000 to the bill. | On top of this, there has been a Dad's Army quality to the whole enterprise that the late Clive Dunn would have appreciated. More than 2m English-only ballot papers in Wales have had to be shredded because there was at the time no legal authority to print a bilingual version. A second set of ballot papers in English and Welsh has added £350,000 to the bill. |
| The prohibitive cost of a free mailshot for all 194 candidates, which ministers put at £35m on top of the £75m bill they already face, has meant that 7 million potential voters without internet access have had to ring a helpline to try to get hard-copy candidate details. This has not always gone smoothly. | The prohibitive cost of a free mailshot for all 194 candidates, which ministers put at £35m on top of the £75m bill they already face, has meant that 7 million potential voters without internet access have had to ring a helpline to try to get hard-copy candidate details. This has not always gone smoothly. |
| Having failed to attract the kind of "big local figures" that David Cameron envisaged for the job when he launched the hunt for candidates, several well qualified people with relevant criminal justice experience found they were forced to withdraw, owing to strict rules barring those convicted of minor offences in their youth. | Having failed to attract the kind of "big local figures" that David Cameron envisaged for the job when he launched the hunt for candidates, several well qualified people with relevant criminal justice experience found they were forced to withdraw, owing to strict rules barring those convicted of minor offences in their youth. |
| Indeed, in a bizarre twist in Northamptonshire, this rule could mean that one of the candidates will have to stand down, forcing an immediate byelection if he is elected this week. | Indeed, in a bizarre twist in Northamptonshire, this rule could mean that one of the candidates will have to stand down, forcing an immediate byelection if he is elected this week. |
| Lee Barron was suspended as the Labour candidate after he revealed he had been fined £20 in 1990 for trying to stop the police from arresting a friend during a dispute in a Northampton pub. His name remains on the ballot paper because this was not disclosed until the date for withdrawals had passed. Northamptonshire could see a much higher than expected Labour vote, as the Corby byelection is also taking place in the county on Thursday. | Lee Barron was suspended as the Labour candidate after he revealed he had been fined £20 in 1990 for trying to stop the police from arresting a friend during a dispute in a Northampton pub. His name remains on the ballot paper because this was not disclosed until the date for withdrawals had passed. Northamptonshire could see a much higher than expected Labour vote, as the Corby byelection is also taking place in the county on Thursday. |
| There are some good-quality candidates standing for all the main parties and for none in these elections, but even David Cameron has recognised it is not just a London-centric national press writing off the elections as a damp squib. "Even if the turnout is low this time around, I think it will grow as people realise the elected PCC is an important job," he said last week. "We all care about law and order, we care about antisocial behaviour and crime. When people see what this job is about, the turnout will grow." | There are some good-quality candidates standing for all the main parties and for none in these elections, but even David Cameron has recognised it is not just a London-centric national press writing off the elections as a damp squib. "Even if the turnout is low this time around, I think it will grow as people realise the elected PCC is an important job," he said last week. "We all care about law and order, we care about antisocial behaviour and crime. When people see what this job is about, the turnout will grow." |
| The lowest turnout in recent British political history for a near-nationwide election was the 23% recorded for the 1999 European elections. It will be criminal if that dismal record is broken this week. | The lowest turnout in recent British political history for a near-nationwide election was the 23% recorded for the 1999 European elections. It will be criminal if that dismal record is broken this week. |
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