All Blacks Head to Europe With Targets on Their Backs

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/sports/rugby/09iht-rugby09.html

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WELLINGTON — There will be more than just bragging rights on the line in Europe during the next four weeks of international rugby.

World ranking points will be up for grabs in each of the 29 tests played by the 22 countries in action. For the 12 teams that have already qualified for the 2015 Rugby World Cup, their world rankings on Dec. 3 will be used to band them for the 2015 pool allocation draw.

There are five bands, each made up of four countries. Nations ranked first to fourth are in Band 1. Those ranked fifth to eighth are in Band 2, and countries ranked 9th to 12th are in Band 3.

Bands 4 and 5 will be filled by countries taking part in World Cup qualifying competitions that will continue over the next three years.

Teams in Band 1 will be the top seeds in each of the four World Cup pools. If the draw took place now, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England, the top-ranked teams currently, would avoid one another in the pool phase.

England will be hoping that that situation does not change by December, as avoiding the Southern Hemisphere trio in pool play is a big advantage.

But France and Wales are close on England’s heels. Only 0.06 of a ranking point separates England and France, with Wales 0.77 behind the French.

In the ranking system, teams take points from one another based on match results, the relative strength of each team, the margin of victory and an allowance for home-field advantage.

Countries could swap ranking places with one another every week as the month and the matches unfold.

Of the three European powers, England potentially has the tougher month, as its test against Fiji is followed by matches against Australia, South Africa and New Zealand on successive weekends.

Wales plays Argentina and Samoa, then New Zealand and Australia, while France takes on Australia, Argentina and Samoa.

Ireland and Scotland, currently ranked seventh and ninth respectively, are also in action. Ireland plays South Africa and Argentina, while Scotland takes on New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga.

Other teams playing during the period include Canada, Georgia, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Romania, Russia, the United States and Uruguay.

For players from England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, there is also the added incentive of British and Irish Lions selection. Good performances, particularly against the heavyweights of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia, will count for plenty as Lions coach Warren Gatland, who is also the coach of Wales, casts his eye over potential players for the trip to Australia next June.

While he is assessing players, Gatland will hand over his Welsh duties to Rob Howley for the matches against Argentina and Samoa. He will return to take the reins against New Zealand and Australia.

These next few weeks will be the last chance the players get to face their Southern Hemisphere counterparts before Gatland announces his Lions squad next year.

As is always the case at this time of the year, the most prized scalp for the northern teams will be that of the world champion, New Zealand, which plays Scotland, Italy, Wales and England.

Wales, which pushed Australia hard in its June series and plays the most expansive brand of rugby among New Zealand’s opponents, has perhaps the best chance of upsetting Steve Hansen’s side, which is still smarting from its ugly 18-18 draw with the Australians, which ended its attempt at the record for most consecutive victories.

A rejuvenated England should also test the All Blacks, particularly in the forwards, but it is difficult to see either Scotland or Italy claiming a first-ever victory over New Zealand, even if Hansen sticks to his decision to rotate his squad so all 32 players get game time in the opening two tests.

All Blacks captain Richie McCaw said the team remained determined to lift its standards even higher as it set out to make good on his declaration that the team needed to play rugby befitting a world champion and world No. 1 — something previous World Cup winners have failed to do.

“I’m happy with where we’re at, but I still think there’s room to improve,” McCaw said.

“The boys are enjoying going about their work,” he added. “I think there’s a little bit of last year being parked, and there’s not that big white elephant that’s down the track.

“When you get on the training pitch, there is a lot more honest conversations now than there perhaps has been in the past, which is a great thing because hopefully that’s driving the standards even higher.”

Add in the fact that the All Blacks have gone unbeaten for 17 tests; have not lost a test in Europe, outside the 2007 Rugby World Cup, since 2002; and play the game with a power and speed that few other sides can match, and it is no surprise that they remain the team to beat.

“It sounds a little bit cocky, but it’s an expectation that you want to win or you’re going to win. So you work out how do you do it, and you prepare as such,” McCaw said of his team’s consistency. “That’s the sign of good teams.” Australia and South Africa look far less assured, and it would be no surprise if they failed to win all of their games.

Robbie Deans’s position as coach of the Wallabies is slightly more secure than it was early in the Rugby Championship, thanks to his injury-ravaged team’s second-place finish in the tournament and its recent draw with the All Blacks.

But a run of poor results in the next four weeks could see calls for his firing begin again in earnest.

South Africa has also been hit hard by injuries during the long, tough season, which began for most Southern Hemisphere players in February. In Heyneke Meyer’s first year in charge, the side has been erratic in its nine tests so far, so putting out three consistent performances will be among his key goals.

The other will be to continue the more free-flowing approach it took in the closing stages of the Rugby Championship when it thrashed Australia, 31-8, and made New Zealand work hard for its 32-16 victory in Soweto.

If it can achieve both of those, it will make life hard for Ireland, Scotland and England.