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| Numbers nerd Nate Silver's forecasts prove all right on election night | Numbers nerd Nate Silver's forecasts prove all right on election night |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| One big winner of US election night was the statistical guru and unashamed numbers nerd Nate Silver, who correctly predicted not only Barack Obama's victory but the outcome of the presidential contest in all 50 states. | One big winner of US election night was the statistical guru and unashamed numbers nerd Nate Silver, who correctly predicted not only Barack Obama's victory but the outcome of the presidential contest in all 50 states. |
| Silver, the political forecaster at the New York Times, infuriated Republicans in the closing days of the race by arguing on his blog FiveThirtyEight.com that Obama's chances of winning were steadily increasing. His final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance of victory. | Silver, the political forecaster at the New York Times, infuriated Republicans in the closing days of the race by arguing on his blog FiveThirtyEight.com that Obama's chances of winning were steadily increasing. His final forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance of victory. |
| Silver also forecast 332 electoral college votes for Obama against 206 for Romney – the actual result, assuming Obama's Florida victory is confirmed. | Silver also forecast 332 electoral college votes for Obama against 206 for Romney – the actual result, assuming Obama's Florida victory is confirmed. |
| In his just-published book, The Signal and the Noise, Silver recounts how his love of data and mathematical models transformed him into the US's leading political seer. In 2003, bored of a consulting job, he designed Pecota, a system to predict the performance of Major League Baseball players. Its probabalistic forecasts proved more accurate than those of any other system. | In his just-published book, The Signal and the Noise, Silver recounts how his love of data and mathematical models transformed him into the US's leading political seer. In 2003, bored of a consulting job, he designed Pecota, a system to predict the performance of Major League Baseball players. Its probabalistic forecasts proved more accurate than those of any other system. |
| Before the 2008 presidential election he founded FiveThirtyEight (the number refers to the number of electoral college votes up for grabs, with 270 a majority). Silver correctly predicted the winner of Obama v John McCain in 49 out of 50 states, as well as the winner of all 35 Senate races. | Before the 2008 presidential election he founded FiveThirtyEight (the number refers to the number of electoral college votes up for grabs, with 270 a majority). Silver correctly predicted the winner of Obama v John McCain in 49 out of 50 states, as well as the winner of all 35 Senate races. |
| This prognosticative feat made him a household name; he had more than 360,000 Twitter followers at the last count. In 2010 the New York Times licensed his blog. Republicans joked that he was actually from the future. | This prognosticative feat made him a household name; he had more than 360,000 Twitter followers at the last count. In 2010 the New York Times licensed his blog. Republicans joked that he was actually from the future. |
| On Tuesday night congratulations on doing it again poured in from fans. Larry G from Los Angeles wrote: "Nate you're the man. I told my friends we had it in the bag? Although I still had plenty of anxiety." Edward, also from LA, posed the inevitable Hollywood question: "So Nate, who would you like to be played in the movie of your life?" | On Tuesday night congratulations on doing it again poured in from fans. Larry G from Los Angeles wrote: "Nate you're the man. I told my friends we had it in the bag? Although I still had plenty of anxiety." Edward, also from LA, posed the inevitable Hollywood question: "So Nate, who would you like to be played in the movie of your life?" |
| Silver's overarching thesis is that in an era of big information, data can be used to predict man's destiny. These themes, of course, have been around for a long time – not least in the plays of Shakespeare. Silver notes that Julius Caesar is a classic example of prediction ("beware the ides of March"), with Caesar – a bit like Karl Rove and some other members of the Republican party – wilfully ignoring the signs that point to his own demise. | Silver's overarching thesis is that in an era of big information, data can be used to predict man's destiny. These themes, of course, have been around for a long time – not least in the plays of Shakespeare. Silver notes that Julius Caesar is a classic example of prediction ("beware the ides of March"), with Caesar – a bit like Karl Rove and some other members of the Republican party – wilfully ignoring the signs that point to his own demise. |
| But Silver also acknowledges that big data can get it badly wrong. The US failed to anticipate the 9/11 attacks; nor did its models forecast the global financial crisis. Political predictions have gone awry in the past, with pundits forecasting a landslide 11-point victory for Al Gore against George Bush in 2000. Inevitably, Silver writes, prediction isn't failsafe and connects "subjective and objective reality". | But Silver also acknowledges that big data can get it badly wrong. The US failed to anticipate the 9/11 attacks; nor did its models forecast the global financial crisis. Political predictions have gone awry in the past, with pundits forecasting a landslide 11-point victory for Al Gore against George Bush in 2000. Inevitably, Silver writes, prediction isn't failsafe and connects "subjective and objective reality". |
| Still, Silver's conservative critics who denigrated his methods and accused him of partisan bias today look rather silly. Geekdom has again triumphed: the 34-year-old analyst describes himself on Twitter as a "sports/politics/food geek". | Still, Silver's conservative critics who denigrated his methods and accused him of partisan bias today look rather silly. Geekdom has again triumphed: the 34-year-old analyst describes himself on Twitter as a "sports/politics/food geek". |
| He is also an Obama supporter. The forecaster's task, he writes, is to separate out the truth (the signal) from what distracts us from the truth (the noise). On this occasion he has done it admirably. | He is also an Obama supporter. The forecaster's task, he writes, is to separate out the truth (the signal) from what distracts us from the truth (the noise). On this occasion he has done it admirably. |
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