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| Salmond's EU crisis: polling suggests Scottish voters care | Salmond's EU crisis: polling suggests Scottish voters care |
| (4 months later) | |
| The continuing furore over Alex Salmond's legal advice on an independent Scotland's entry into the European Union is certainly not how he would wish to celebrate becoming Scotland's longest-serving first minister. | The continuing furore over Alex Salmond's legal advice on an independent Scotland's entry into the European Union is certainly not how he would wish to celebrate becoming Scotland's longest-serving first minister. |
| That milestone – surpassing Jack McConnell's tenure as the last Labour first minister - was passed on Wednesday; Salmond has now been first minister for 2002 days – a milestone marked by the Herald on Saturday with a useful 'report card' style piece, profiles and interviews by the BBC and elsewhere. | That milestone – surpassing Jack McConnell's tenure as the last Labour first minister - was passed on Wednesday; Salmond has now been first minister for 2002 days – a milestone marked by the Herald on Saturday with a useful 'report card' style piece, profiles and interviews by the BBC and elsewhere. |
| EU liar: Alex Salmond blasted as SNP are forced into climbdown after admitting they never took legal advice on EU entry thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepa… | EU liar: Alex Salmond blasted as SNP are forced into climbdown after admitting they never took legal advice on EU entry thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepa… |
| Future polling will tell us whether the EU legal advice crisis has affected Salmond's wider popularity – splash headlines such as "EU Liar" in the Scottish edition of the Sun cannot have helped - and wider support for independence. | Future polling will tell us whether the EU legal advice crisis has affected Salmond's wider popularity – splash headlines such as "EU Liar" in the Scottish edition of the Sun cannot have helped - and wider support for independence. |
| What recent polling tells us about Scottish attitudes to European Union membership is instructive: it suggests that Scots tend to be more Euro-phile than voters elsewhere in the UK, and have less deep-seated hostility towards the EU and institutions. | What recent polling tells us about Scottish attitudes to European Union membership is instructive: it suggests that Scots tend to be more Euro-phile than voters elsewhere in the UK, and have less deep-seated hostility towards the EU and institutions. |
| But that tendency is balanced by consistently significant levels of scepticism in Scotland – not as deep rooted as in England, certainly, but still commanding more a third of voter sentiment. | But that tendency is balanced by consistently significant levels of scepticism in Scotland – not as deep rooted as in England, certainly, but still commanding more a third of voter sentiment. |
| While sketchy (no in-depth Scottish polling on Europe has been done of late), the Scottish data suggests voters may be more troubled by doubts about maintaining EU membership than most English voters. In the short-term, that could make life more uncomfortable for Salmond and the SNP. It also illustrates why Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, his deputy, are keen to regain control of this agenda. | While sketchy (no in-depth Scottish polling on Europe has been done of late), the Scottish data suggests voters may be more troubled by doubts about maintaining EU membership than most English voters. In the short-term, that could make life more uncomfortable for Salmond and the SNP. It also illustrates why Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, his deputy, are keen to regain control of this agenda. |
| Professor John Curtice, the elections expert at Strathclyde university and a research consultant with the Scottish Centre for Social Research, says the Scottish samples in recent YouGov polling suggests a warmer attitude towards Europe – but only by a few percentage points. Nothing dramatic. | Professor John Curtice, the elections expert at Strathclyde university and a research consultant with the Scottish Centre for Social Research, says the Scottish samples in recent YouGov polling suggests a warmer attitude towards Europe – but only by a few percentage points. Nothing dramatic. |
| Curtice said: | Curtice said: |
| We know from the standard Scottish Social attitudes survey's constitutional preferences question that those in favour of independence would prefer to be in rather than out of the EU by a ratio of around 2:1. | We know from the standard Scottish Social attitudes survey's constitutional preferences question that those in favour of independence would prefer to be in rather than out of the EU by a ratio of around 2:1. |
| Otherwise it is a case of scratching around the Scottish end of British polls. | Otherwise it is a case of scratching around the Scottish end of British polls. |
| Three UK-wide YouGov polls since December which tested sentiment in detail had a modest total sample of 473 Scottish voters. What they did show that 13% of Scots favoured "more integrated Europe" versus an 8% UK average, with 18% of Scots favouring the status quo against 14% across the UK. | Three UK-wide YouGov polls since December which tested sentiment in detail had a modest total sample of 473 Scottish voters. What they did show that 13% of Scots favoured "more integrated Europe" versus an 8% UK average, with 18% of Scots favouring the status quo against 14% across the UK. |
| Asked about less integration, that was backed by 36% of Scots against a 37% UK average; on complete EU withdrawal, Scots voters were somewhat less supportive: 23% of UK voters as a whole favoured pulling out, against 19% of Scottish voters. So when those answers are aggregated, we find a slim majority which is critical of the status quo. | Asked about less integration, that was backed by 36% of Scots against a 37% UK average; on complete EU withdrawal, Scots voters were somewhat less supportive: 23% of UK voters as a whole favoured pulling out, against 19% of Scottish voters. So when those answers are aggregated, we find a slim majority which is critical of the status quo. |
| Both the ambivalence and the scepticism were underlined by a fourth YouGov poll last month, for the Sunday Times. Again, the Scottish sample was small – the weighted sample was 165 (unweighted 198) – but if found that 62% of Scots wanted a referendum on EU membership (two points more than the UK total). | Both the ambivalence and the scepticism were underlined by a fourth YouGov poll last month, for the Sunday Times. Again, the Scottish sample was small – the weighted sample was 165 (unweighted 198) – but if found that 62% of Scots wanted a referendum on EU membership (two points more than the UK total). |
| While the UK-wide figures were very firmly in favour of quitting the EU by 48% to the 31% who preferred to stay in (presumably because of the eurozone debt crisis), in Scotland opinion was more cleanly divided. YouGov found 42% would vote to leave the EU against 43% who would vote to stay. | While the UK-wide figures were very firmly in favour of quitting the EU by 48% to the 31% who preferred to stay in (presumably because of the eurozone debt crisis), in Scotland opinion was more cleanly divided. YouGov found 42% would vote to leave the EU against 43% who would vote to stay. |
| But cast forward, what if the Westminster coalition government's split over a future referendum on Europe deepens? | But cast forward, what if the Westminster coalition government's split over a future referendum on Europe deepens? |
| What if, in the run-up to the 2015 general election, David Cameron is forced into ever-greater concessions to Tory Eurosceptics while his deputy Nick Clegg continues to champion European integration, and rails violently against his Tory partners as he bids to build for the election? | What if, in the run-up to the 2015 general election, David Cameron is forced into ever-greater concessions to Tory Eurosceptics while his deputy Nick Clegg continues to champion European integration, and rails violently against his Tory partners as he bids to build for the election? |
| Perhaps then, an SNP strategy of embracing Europe might eventually play well at home. While facing a hammering on the non-existent EU legal advice, SNP ministers and spin-doctors are carefully at work here, preparing a longer term strategy, as part of their shift to capture the centre left high ground in Scotland from Labour. | Perhaps then, an SNP strategy of embracing Europe might eventually play well at home. While facing a hammering on the non-existent EU legal advice, SNP ministers and spin-doctors are carefully at work here, preparing a longer term strategy, as part of their shift to capture the centre left high ground in Scotland from Labour. |
| There is a reason for that, says Prof James Mitchell, a Scottish politics specialist also at Strathclyde university, and co-author of the definitive study on SNP members politics and attitudes, The Scottish National Party, published by OUP. | There is a reason for that, says Prof James Mitchell, a Scottish politics specialist also at Strathclyde university, and co-author of the definitive study on SNP members politics and attitudes, The Scottish National Party, published by OUP. |
| He said the differences between Scottish and English sentiment on Europe are often exaggerated; the aggregated polling results underline that point. Indeed Scotland was once the most Euro-sceptic part of the UK: it came close to voting against EEC membership in 1975 referendum. | He said the differences between Scottish and English sentiment on Europe are often exaggerated; the aggregated polling results underline that point. Indeed Scotland was once the most Euro-sceptic part of the UK: it came close to voting against EEC membership in 1975 referendum. |
| Yet that changed markedly during the Thatcher era; while she became more phobic and hostile, senior Scottish political figures and opinion-formers became fans of Brussels. The SNP became a keenly pro-EU party in the early 90s. | Yet that changed markedly during the Thatcher era; while she became more phobic and hostile, senior Scottish political figures and opinion-formers became fans of Brussels. The SNP became a keenly pro-EU party in the early 90s. |
| That could happen again: a Euro-phobic Tory-led government could make Scots more favourable to Europe. | That could happen again: a Euro-phobic Tory-led government could make Scots more favourable to Europe. |
| Because Scots want to define ourselves as 'not Tories', [there's] no doubt we know from the past that London, particularly under the Tories and how they behave, affects the Scottish view of things. If the past is any guide, we can expect a shift. | Because Scots want to define ourselves as 'not Tories', [there's] no doubt we know from the past that London, particularly under the Tories and how they behave, affects the Scottish view of things. If the past is any guide, we can expect a shift. |
So Salmond's pro-Europe positioning "could make sense, longer term. | So Salmond's pro-Europe positioning "could make sense, longer term. |
| What will be interesting will be not only what the SNP says but how the various elites and opinion formers in Scotland react: how does the Labour party, the unions and business leaders react? What the SNP is trying to do is lead opinion in a direction to highlight differences [with Westminster]. | What will be interesting will be not only what the SNP says but how the various elites and opinion formers in Scotland react: how does the Labour party, the unions and business leaders react? What the SNP is trying to do is lead opinion in a direction to highlight differences [with Westminster]. |
| So, would Salmond's troubles over EU membership and legal advice make Scotland's Euro-sceptics more cynical about independence? Half-jokingly, Mitchell asks whether some would vote for independence if Scotland's continued EU membership was in doubt. | So, would Salmond's troubles over EU membership and legal advice make Scotland's Euro-sceptics more cynical about independence? Half-jokingly, Mitchell asks whether some would vote for independence if Scotland's continued EU membership was in doubt. |
| Yet there are troubles here too for Salmond within the SNP. Senior figures in the older more conservative SNP generation – former leader Gordon Wilson and former SNP MP and deputy leader Jim Sillars – want Scotland to quit the EU and like Norway join the European Free Trade Alliance instead, reported the Herald on Tuesday. As open critics from within the SNP they are in a minority, but it shows that ambivalence is widespread. Salmond will need to tread carefully; playing the pro-EU card could be risky. | Yet there are troubles here too for Salmond within the SNP. Senior figures in the older more conservative SNP generation – former leader Gordon Wilson and former SNP MP and deputy leader Jim Sillars – want Scotland to quit the EU and like Norway join the European Free Trade Alliance instead, reported the Herald on Tuesday. As open critics from within the SNP they are in a minority, but it shows that ambivalence is widespread. Salmond will need to tread carefully; playing the pro-EU card could be risky. |
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