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| Nor'easter will be snow joke for New York and New Jersey after Sandy | Nor'easter will be snow joke for New York and New Jersey after Sandy |
| (7 days later) | |
| With the memory of Sandy fresh in our minds, the northern mid-Atlantic is about to get one heck of a shock to the system. Word of a nor'easter to hit today has been around for days. We have always expected heavy wind, and there will be heavy wind. The big surprise is going to be the snow. Let's get to it all and start with the snow. | With the memory of Sandy fresh in our minds, the northern mid-Atlantic is about to get one heck of a shock to the system. Word of a nor'easter to hit today has been around for days. We have always expected heavy wind, and there will be heavy wind. The big surprise is going to be the snow. Let's get to it all and start with the snow. |
There is currently a winter storm warning (meaning, there will be dangerous travel conditions) from noontime through early evening for Philadelphia into interior southern New Jersey. This warning is in effect for three to five inches of snow. We also have winter weather advisories (meaning hazardous but travel-able conditions) for noontime through the early evening for one to four inches of snow in northern New Jersey into the far northern suburbs of New York City. | There is currently a winter storm warning (meaning, there will be dangerous travel conditions) from noontime through early evening for Philadelphia into interior southern New Jersey. This warning is in effect for three to five inches of snow. We also have winter weather advisories (meaning hazardous but travel-able conditions) for noontime through the early evening for one to four inches of snow in northern New Jersey into the far northern suburbs of New York City. |
| Right now, it seems like a pretty safe bet that Philadelphia and to the north and east are going to get heavier bands and have the cold air get to the surface for snow. The question is over what will happen in New York City and the surrounding areas just to the north and west. | Right now, it seems like a pretty safe bet that Philadelphia and to the north and east are going to get heavier bands and have the cold air get to the surface for snow. The question is over what will happen in New York City and the surrounding areas just to the north and west. |
| Based on the latest data, I would not be surprised if those advisories in the New York City suburbs are pushed closer to the city and the amounts of snow are increased to what we see in Philadelphia. The reason has to do with where the heavy snow bands setup. On a similar point, if the snow is too light, it won't be able to stick that well to a relatively warm surface. Heavier bands will also allow for colder air to come to the surface from above. | Based on the latest data, I would not be surprised if those advisories in the New York City suburbs are pushed closer to the city and the amounts of snow are increased to what we see in Philadelphia. The reason has to do with where the heavy snow bands setup. On a similar point, if the snow is too light, it won't be able to stick that well to a relatively warm surface. Heavier bands will also allow for colder air to come to the surface from above. |
| The latest models are indicating that heavier bands may in fact set up over and near the city. That should, in combination with a cold air flow from the north, keep the cold air in place. | The latest models are indicating that heavier bands may in fact set up over and near the city. That should, in combination with a cold air flow from the north, keep the cold air in place. |
| What I'll also be watching in New York City is the dew points. As the precipitation in New York City gets started, the temperature will fall and meet the dew point for saturation. | What I'll also be watching in New York City is the dew points. As the precipitation in New York City gets started, the temperature will fall and meet the dew point for saturation. |
| The dew points from Manhattan westward are in the mid-20s and lower. The dew points from Queens eastward are in the upper-20s into the mid-30s. Could that be where the line from no accumulation to snow actually sticking will reside? We'll have to wait and see until a little later on. The best bet for now is to stick with a mix of rain and snow with little in the way of accumulating snow in New York City and the immediate western suburbs. | The dew points from Manhattan westward are in the mid-20s and lower. The dew points from Queens eastward are in the upper-20s into the mid-30s. Could that be where the line from no accumulation to snow actually sticking will reside? We'll have to wait and see until a little later on. The best bet for now is to stick with a mix of rain and snow with little in the way of accumulating snow in New York City and the immediate western suburbs. |
| The snow will extend into Southern New England with one to four inches of snow later this afternoon into tonight from Hartford, Connecticut to Worcester, Massachusetts and to Southern New Hampshire. The snow could end as a little freezing rain. | The snow will extend into Southern New England with one to four inches of snow later this afternoon into tonight from Hartford, Connecticut to Worcester, Massachusetts and to Southern New Hampshire. The snow could end as a little freezing rain. |
| Remember, wet snow such as this storm will deliver can stick to trees and powerlines and cause even more power outages to an area that is still recovering from Sandy. | Remember, wet snow such as this storm will deliver can stick to trees and powerlines and cause even more power outages to an area that is still recovering from Sandy. |
| Of course, snow won't be the only story. Winds will also wreck havoc with a low pressure system be around 985 to 990 millibars and tightly wound. This is no Sandy, but 990 millibars is nothing to laugh at with a ~1025 millibar high pressure in Maine and Southern Canada. Remember it's the differences in pressure that give us wind. | Of course, snow won't be the only story. Winds will also wreck havoc with a low pressure system be around 985 to 990 millibars and tightly wound. This is no Sandy, but 990 millibars is nothing to laugh at with a ~1025 millibar high pressure in Maine and Southern Canada. Remember it's the differences in pressure that give us wind. |
| We have a high-wind warning for 25- to 35mph winds and 60mph gusts for the Jersey Coast, New York City and eastward. That will almost certainly knock out power to some people who have just gotten it back. Further inland, there are wind advisories 15- to 25mph winds with gusts up to 50mph. Outages won't be as severe in these areas, but they can occur. | We have a high-wind warning for 25- to 35mph winds and 60mph gusts for the Jersey Coast, New York City and eastward. That will almost certainly knock out power to some people who have just gotten it back. Further inland, there are wind advisories 15- to 25mph winds with gusts up to 50mph. Outages won't be as severe in these areas, but they can occur. |
| Finally, the coast will also be dealing with more storm surge. Tidal departures of three to five feet seem likely tonight and two to four feet tomorrow morning. This is not Sandy material. Still, any sort of water getting into areas in the Rockaways and Staten Island won't be helpful for recovery efforts. | Finally, the coast will also be dealing with more storm surge. Tidal departures of three to five feet seem likely tonight and two to four feet tomorrow morning. This is not Sandy material. Still, any sort of water getting into areas in the Rockaways and Staten Island won't be helpful for recovery efforts. |
| The only good news I can deliver is that temperatures are expected to rebound into the 60s by the weekend. | The only good news I can deliver is that temperatures are expected to rebound into the 60s by the weekend. |
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