This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/07/barack-obama-foreign-policy-promises
The article has changed 7 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| Barack Obama has another chance to deliver his foreign policy promises | Barack Obama has another chance to deliver his foreign policy promises |
| (7 days later) | |
| The last time a triumphant Barack Obama appeared before thousands of cheering supporters in Chicago and promised change, there was indeed a sense that the world had shifted on its axis, and that the election of America's first black president – whose middle name was Hussein – would transform the world. | The last time a triumphant Barack Obama appeared before thousands of cheering supporters in Chicago and promised change, there was indeed a sense that the world had shifted on its axis, and that the election of America's first black president – whose middle name was Hussein – would transform the world. |
| Since that moment in 2008, the world has indeed been transformed, but not by Obama. The US role in the Arab spring, the great tectonic shift of his first term, was both wavering and largely irrelevant. Iran's nuclear programme advanced steadily no matter what the US did, threatening to trigger a new age of nuclear proliferation. Washington had similarly had little choice but to look on in wonder and apprehension at China's phenomenal economic rise. | Since that moment in 2008, the world has indeed been transformed, but not by Obama. The US role in the Arab spring, the great tectonic shift of his first term, was both wavering and largely irrelevant. Iran's nuclear programme advanced steadily no matter what the US did, threatening to trigger a new age of nuclear proliferation. Washington had similarly had little choice but to look on in wonder and apprehension at China's phenomenal economic rise. |
| Obama now has four more years and a second chance to deliver on his promise to become an agent of change in the world. The logic of a second term will certainly push him to try. All presidents want an enduring legacy, and an obdurate, even vengeful, Republican majority in the House of Representatives will send Obama in search of one abroad, where he will enjoy a freer hand. | Obama now has four more years and a second chance to deliver on his promise to become an agent of change in the world. The logic of a second term will certainly push him to try. All presidents want an enduring legacy, and an obdurate, even vengeful, Republican majority in the House of Representatives will send Obama in search of one abroad, where he will enjoy a freer hand. |
| Obama has pulled American forces out of Iraq. By the end of 2014, US combat troops will have left Afghanistan. He has managed so far to keep the US out of the Syrian conflict, but aid to the armed opposition, overt and covert, is bound to creep up as the conflict drags on. A few hours after the election result, it was reported that Turkey was in talks with the US over the deployment of patriot missiles along its border, which would go a long way to establishing a no-fly zone over a rebel-held strip of northern Syria. | Obama has pulled American forces out of Iraq. By the end of 2014, US combat troops will have left Afghanistan. He has managed so far to keep the US out of the Syrian conflict, but aid to the armed opposition, overt and covert, is bound to creep up as the conflict drags on. A few hours after the election result, it was reported that Turkey was in talks with the US over the deployment of patriot missiles along its border, which would go a long way to establishing a no-fly zone over a rebel-held strip of northern Syria. |
| The greatest looming crisis offers the greatest opportunity. Iran is in the balance, but Obama also has a chance to avert another war in the Middle East and finally earn the Nobel peace prize he won at the beginning of his first term. | The greatest looming crisis offers the greatest opportunity. Iran is in the balance, but Obama also has a chance to avert another war in the Middle East and finally earn the Nobel peace prize he won at the beginning of his first term. |
| A new round of international talks is due at the end of the month. The US has been holding secret bilateral discussions with Tehran in parallel, and Obama signalled publicly in a presidential debate that his administration is prepared to negotiate one-on-one. | A new round of international talks is due at the end of the month. The US has been holding secret bilateral discussions with Tehran in parallel, and Obama signalled publicly in a presidential debate that his administration is prepared to negotiate one-on-one. |
| Soon after Obama's victory, a prominent Iranian figure, Mohammad Javad Larijani, head of Iran's human rights council and the parliamentary speaker's brother, said that talks with US were not taboo. | Soon after Obama's victory, a prominent Iranian figure, Mohammad Javad Larijani, head of Iran's human rights council and the parliamentary speaker's brother, said that talks with US were not taboo. |
| The outlines of a possible deal are clear: Iran gives up production of 20%-enriched uranium (the biggest proliferation threat) in return for sanctions relief. It also wins the right to carry on making low enriched uranium for power reactors but in exchange has to accept more intrusive monitoring. Israel will not like such a deal, but Binyamin Netanyahu backed the wrong horse in this US election race, and will not have much of a say. It will ultimately be up to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the clerical-military regime around him, to make up their mind. Obama's victory means that the ball will be very much in their court. | The outlines of a possible deal are clear: Iran gives up production of 20%-enriched uranium (the biggest proliferation threat) in return for sanctions relief. It also wins the right to carry on making low enriched uranium for power reactors but in exchange has to accept more intrusive monitoring. Israel will not like such a deal, but Binyamin Netanyahu backed the wrong horse in this US election race, and will not have much of a say. It will ultimately be up to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the clerical-military regime around him, to make up their mind. Obama's victory means that the ball will be very much in their court. |
| It is widely forgotten, but the most ambitious, "transformational" speech Obama made in his first term was delivered three months after taking office, in Prague. The new president described a future for the world free of nuclear arms, and pledged that America, one of the world's two leading nuclear powers, would play its part in moving in that direction. The next year, he took the first step towards delivering on that promise, signing the New Start treaty with the then Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, which reduced both countries' nuclear stockpiles by a third, to a ceiling of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads. But the huge political effort of pushing the deal through a reluctant Senate exhausted the administration's disarmament effort for the first term. | It is widely forgotten, but the most ambitious, "transformational" speech Obama made in his first term was delivered three months after taking office, in Prague. The new president described a future for the world free of nuclear arms, and pledged that America, one of the world's two leading nuclear powers, would play its part in moving in that direction. The next year, he took the first step towards delivering on that promise, signing the New Start treaty with the then Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, which reduced both countries' nuclear stockpiles by a third, to a ceiling of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads. But the huge political effort of pushing the deal through a reluctant Senate exhausted the administration's disarmament effort for the first term. |
| All the signs from the White House suggest Obama still believes the world's nuclear powers will have to disarm much further if they are to continue to expect the nuclear have-nots to accept the status quo. The administration will soon release its presidential guidance on what the US nuclear posture should look like in the coming four years, and that guidance will almost certainly point towards more cuts, perhaps to 1,000 strategic weapons. There will also be a new push to engage the Russians in a new treaty that would encompass tactical weapons as well and mark a step change in the number of nuclear weapons on the planet – a substantial legacy by any standards. But Russia, under President Vladimir Putin once more, would have to go along. | All the signs from the White House suggest Obama still believes the world's nuclear powers will have to disarm much further if they are to continue to expect the nuclear have-nots to accept the status quo. The administration will soon release its presidential guidance on what the US nuclear posture should look like in the coming four years, and that guidance will almost certainly point towards more cuts, perhaps to 1,000 strategic weapons. There will also be a new push to engage the Russians in a new treaty that would encompass tactical weapons as well and mark a step change in the number of nuclear weapons on the planet – a substantial legacy by any standards. But Russia, under President Vladimir Putin once more, would have to go along. |
| For Russia to do a deal, more would have to be on the table, most importantly missile defence. In the course of the campaign, Obama was overheard privately assuring Medvedev that he would have "more flexibility" to compromise on missile defence once the election was over. That is certainly true, in part because Iran's missile programme (which the system is designed to counter) has not advanced as fast as feared, and because there are profound technical problems with the American system. It is quite possible the third stage of the phased scheme, involving missile interceptors being deployed in Poland, could be postponed or scrapped, opening up negotiating room with Putin. The Russian president, however, would have to show some imagination and vision in order to seize the opportunity. | For Russia to do a deal, more would have to be on the table, most importantly missile defence. In the course of the campaign, Obama was overheard privately assuring Medvedev that he would have "more flexibility" to compromise on missile defence once the election was over. That is certainly true, in part because Iran's missile programme (which the system is designed to counter) has not advanced as fast as feared, and because there are profound technical problems with the American system. It is quite possible the third stage of the phased scheme, involving missile interceptors being deployed in Poland, could be postponed or scrapped, opening up negotiating room with Putin. The Russian president, however, would have to show some imagination and vision in order to seize the opportunity. |
| Obama needs to settle the US relationship with Moscow to help sustain his "pivot to Asia" intended to contain a rising, more assertive China, which is beginning to challenge America's regional allies over territory. He will continue to bolster those alliances, but he has little control over the driving force in the region, China's economic growth and the political uncertainty that comes with it. The coming party congress in Beijing will usher in a new generation of Chinese leaders who are far more nationalist than their predecessors and who may be tempted to look for confrontation abroad as a distraction if growth rates start to sag. In his new book on Obama's foreign policy, Confront and Conceal, David Sanger quotes a senior American diplomat as saying: "If we get China wrong, in 30 years that's the only thing anyone will remember." | Obama needs to settle the US relationship with Moscow to help sustain his "pivot to Asia" intended to contain a rising, more assertive China, which is beginning to challenge America's regional allies over territory. He will continue to bolster those alliances, but he has little control over the driving force in the region, China's economic growth and the political uncertainty that comes with it. The coming party congress in Beijing will usher in a new generation of Chinese leaders who are far more nationalist than their predecessors and who may be tempted to look for confrontation abroad as a distraction if growth rates start to sag. In his new book on Obama's foreign policy, Confront and Conceal, David Sanger quotes a senior American diplomat as saying: "If we get China wrong, in 30 years that's the only thing anyone will remember." |
| The rise of China, as well as of other new powers such as Brazil and Turkey, serves as a reminder that the US is increasingly operating in a multipolar world. That global transition is likely to be smoother because America has re-elected a president who embraces that transition rather than one pledged to fight it, but Obama will probably still chafe against the diminishing capacity of an American president to shape events around the globe. | The rise of China, as well as of other new powers such as Brazil and Turkey, serves as a reminder that the US is increasingly operating in a multipolar world. That global transition is likely to be smoother because America has re-elected a president who embraces that transition rather than one pledged to fight it, but Obama will probably still chafe against the diminishing capacity of an American president to shape events around the globe. |
| One important exception is the Middle East, specifically the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The US alliance with Israel gives Obama a powerful lever he can pull to influence the course of events but he has so far balked at using it. In his second would-be transformational speech on foreign policy, made in Cairo in June 2009, Obama pledged to change the US role in the Middle East, and Arabs took that to mean more American pressure on Israel to accept a peace deal that left Palestinians with a viable state based on 1967 borders. However, in a stand-off with Netanyahu over Israeli West Bank settlements later the same year, Obama blinked, mindful of the imperatives of re-election in a strongly pro-Israel country. | One important exception is the Middle East, specifically the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The US alliance with Israel gives Obama a powerful lever he can pull to influence the course of events but he has so far balked at using it. In his second would-be transformational speech on foreign policy, made in Cairo in June 2009, Obama pledged to change the US role in the Middle East, and Arabs took that to mean more American pressure on Israel to accept a peace deal that left Palestinians with a viable state based on 1967 borders. However, in a stand-off with Netanyahu over Israeli West Bank settlements later the same year, Obama blinked, mindful of the imperatives of re-election in a strongly pro-Israel country. |
| With that now out of the way, the question is whether the president has the stamina to try again. Bill Clinton's attempt to make Israel-Palestine the legacy project of his second term did not end well, and he was operating in a far more promising environment. After Israel's 22 January election, Obama may well have to contend with Netanyahu in an even more rightwing coalition. In such circumstances, he may well go through the motions of peace-making, with very little hope of progress until there is a significant realignment of Israeli politics. | With that now out of the way, the question is whether the president has the stamina to try again. Bill Clinton's attempt to make Israel-Palestine the legacy project of his second term did not end well, and he was operating in a far more promising environment. After Israel's 22 January election, Obama may well have to contend with Netanyahu in an even more rightwing coalition. In such circumstances, he may well go through the motions of peace-making, with very little hope of progress until there is a significant realignment of Israeli politics. |
| The great attraction of foreign affairs for a second-term president is that he does not have to deal with Congress. The downside is that he has to find partners prepared to take the long view. Netanyahu, Putin and Khamenei are not the most promising pool to pick from, but their own hold on power is far from assured. As he moves into his second term, Obama will still need some luck if he is to make the transition from a good president to a great one. | The great attraction of foreign affairs for a second-term president is that he does not have to deal with Congress. The downside is that he has to find partners prepared to take the long view. Netanyahu, Putin and Khamenei are not the most promising pool to pick from, but their own hold on power is far from assured. As he moves into his second term, Obama will still need some luck if he is to make the transition from a good president to a great one. |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. | Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. Enter your email address to subscribe. | Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. Enter your email address to subscribe. |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. |