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| Gay marriage activists hope to make history as four states vote on initiative | Gay marriage activists hope to make history as four states vote on initiative |
| (7 days later) | |
| With fingers crossed and mounting trepidation, same-sex marriage advocates are allowing themselves to hope that voters in a US state will finally endorse their cause after a history of false dawns and disappointments. | With fingers crossed and mounting trepidation, same-sex marriage advocates are allowing themselves to hope that voters in a US state will finally endorse their cause after a history of false dawns and disappointments. |
| Twenty-eight times referendums on same-sex marriage have been on the election ballot in US states. And 28 times, voters have either rejected the idea, overturned legislation allowing it, or approved amendments to state constitutions defining marriage as being between a man and a woman. | Twenty-eight times referendums on same-sex marriage have been on the election ballot in US states. And 28 times, voters have either rejected the idea, overturned legislation allowing it, or approved amendments to state constitutions defining marriage as being between a man and a woman. |
| This time hopes are high. Not only has there been a shift in social attitudes, according to national opinion polls, but the end of the "don't ask, don't tell" policy barring gays and lesbians from the US military, public support for marriage equality from the White House and high-profile judicial decisions overturning same-sex marriage bars on human rights grounds have raised expectations that voters may be catching up. | This time hopes are high. Not only has there been a shift in social attitudes, according to national opinion polls, but the end of the "don't ask, don't tell" policy barring gays and lesbians from the US military, public support for marriage equality from the White House and high-profile judicial decisions overturning same-sex marriage bars on human rights grounds have raised expectations that voters may be catching up. |
| And this time the referendums are taking place on more favourable grounds. Votes for or against same-sex marriage – in one form or another – are on the ballot in four states: Minnesota, Maine, Maryland and Washington. All four are among the more liberal of the blue states: all are reliably Democratic states in presidential voting. | And this time the referendums are taking place on more favourable grounds. Votes for or against same-sex marriage – in one form or another – are on the ballot in four states: Minnesota, Maine, Maryland and Washington. All four are among the more liberal of the blue states: all are reliably Democratic states in presidential voting. |
| Yet of the four states, only tiny Maine, in America's north-east corner, is close to being a sure bet. In the other three, hopes for more victories are on hold, in some cases after last-minute ad blitzes caused polls to swing back. | Yet of the four states, only tiny Maine, in America's north-east corner, is close to being a sure bet. In the other three, hopes for more victories are on hold, in some cases after last-minute ad blitzes caused polls to swing back. |
| A few weeks ago in Maryland, polls were showing a solid majority backing Question 6 on the state ballot. But as the Baltimore Sun reports: | A few weeks ago in Maryland, polls were showing a solid majority backing Question 6 on the state ballot. But as the Baltimore Sun reports: |
| A month ago, the same-sex marriage question was ahead by 10 percentage points – 49% to 39% – in an earlier Sun poll. The contest is now a dead heat in part because some African Americans who supported the measure or were undecided are now saying no. | A month ago, the same-sex marriage question was ahead by 10 percentage points – 49% to 39% – in an earlier Sun poll. The contest is now a dead heat in part because some African Americans who supported the measure or were undecided are now saying no. |
| The numbers have moved amid television and radio commercials from the Maryland Marriage Alliance, which opposes same-sex marriage, and stepped-up efforts by pastors preaching against Question 6. | The numbers have moved amid television and radio commercials from the Maryland Marriage Alliance, which opposes same-sex marriage, and stepped-up efforts by pastors preaching against Question 6. |
| The latest polling in Maryland had support for same-sex marriage trailing by 46% to 47%. | The latest polling in Maryland had support for same-sex marriage trailing by 46% to 47%. |
| In Minnesota, the battle is over a proposal to amend the state constitution banning gay marriage. But despite what the Twin Cities' Pioneer Press described as "Minnesota's angriest electoral fight in memory," the last poll showed a majority likely to shoot down a proposal to amend the state constitution so that "only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage". | In Minnesota, the battle is over a proposal to amend the state constitution banning gay marriage. But despite what the Twin Cities' Pioneer Press described as "Minnesota's angriest electoral fight in memory," the last poll showed a majority likely to shoot down a proposal to amend the state constitution so that "only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage". |
| Yet the Pioneer Press noted: | Yet the Pioneer Press noted: |
| The marriage amendment mobilized thousands of volunteers and attracted $16m in campaign contributions, drawing far more passion than the state's presidential or Senate contests. | The marriage amendment mobilized thousands of volunteers and attracted $16m in campaign contributions, drawing far more passion than the state's presidential or Senate contests. |
| In Washington state, Referendum 74 asks voters to either approve or reject the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage, passed earlier this year. The most recent poll by a local TV channel King 5 found: | In Washington state, Referendum 74 asks voters to either approve or reject the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage, passed earlier this year. The most recent poll by a local TV channel King 5 found: |
| The poll also shows that the race over Referendum 74 has tightened. The referendum on same-sex marriage has 52% approving with 43% saying they'll reject. With ballot measures, undecided votes often lean "no" toward the end, and the latest King 5 poll finds 5 percent saying they're not sure. Two weeks ago, the King 5 poll had the measure leading at 54% to 41%. | The poll also shows that the race over Referendum 74 has tightened. The referendum on same-sex marriage has 52% approving with 43% saying they'll reject. With ballot measures, undecided votes often lean "no" toward the end, and the latest King 5 poll finds 5 percent saying they're not sure. Two weeks ago, the King 5 poll had the measure leading at 54% to 41%. |
| In Maine, where the polling in favour of gay marriage is 52% to 45%, pollsters PPP noted: | In Maine, where the polling in favour of gay marriage is 52% to 45%, pollsters PPP noted: |
| What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way – this is likely to be a pretty close vote. | What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way – this is likely to be a pretty close vote. |
| But some in Maine recall that voters in the state launched a successful petition to overturn the state legislature's previous attempt to recognise same-sex marriage, winning the resulting referendum by 53% to 47%. That was just three years ago, in 2009. | But some in Maine recall that voters in the state launched a successful petition to overturn the state legislature's previous attempt to recognise same-sex marriage, winning the resulting referendum by 53% to 47%. That was just three years ago, in 2009. |
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