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| Under pressure: the man who must rule on next UK airport | Under pressure: the man who must rule on next UK airport |
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| Reclining in an office chair usually filled by the transport minister, Norman Baker, who is away for the day, Sir Howard Davies, 61 – former senior mandarin at the Treasury, one-time aide to Nigel Lawson, former director of the London School of Economics, head of the Financial Services Authority under Labour and now chairman of Phoenix Insurance – oozes the confidence of a man who has seen it all before. | Reclining in an office chair usually filled by the transport minister, Norman Baker, who is away for the day, Sir Howard Davies, 61 – former senior mandarin at the Treasury, one-time aide to Nigel Lawson, former director of the London School of Economics, head of the Financial Services Authority under Labour and now chairman of Phoenix Insurance – oozes the confidence of a man who has seen it all before. |
| "It happened in the way these things do. Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, gave me a call and said, ehm, your number's come up," he chuckles. "I was slightly surprised. It wasn't an obvious thing to do, although, curiously enough, I did a couple of years in the Treasury on aerospace, but I don't think Jeremy was even aware of that when he asked me." | "It happened in the way these things do. Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, gave me a call and said, ehm, your number's come up," he chuckles. "I was slightly surprised. It wasn't an obvious thing to do, although, curiously enough, I did a couple of years in the Treasury on aerospace, but I don't think Jeremy was even aware of that when he asked me." |
| Ever since, critics have been lining up to point out how far it was from being the "obvious thing to do". Heywood was inviting Davies to be the man to decide whether and where to build Britain's next major airport, an issue that in other countries might be regarded as a dry administrative task, but in the UK is a peculiarly red rag to the many-headed bull that is the green lobby, local communities under flight paths, regional tsars jealous of the south-east and political leaders looking to display their environmentally friendly or business credentials – depending on the fashion. | Ever since, critics have been lining up to point out how far it was from being the "obvious thing to do". Heywood was inviting Davies to be the man to decide whether and where to build Britain's next major airport, an issue that in other countries might be regarded as a dry administrative task, but in the UK is a peculiarly red rag to the many-headed bull that is the green lobby, local communities under flight paths, regional tsars jealous of the south-east and political leaders looking to display their environmentally friendly or business credentials – depending on the fashion. |
| Then, of course, there's Boris Johnson, a London mayor in search of a defining issue for his political career, frustrated that the prime minister has not made a decision on the issue, determined to have a third runway at Heathrow ruled out, and for a new airport, popularly known as "Boris Island", to be built swiftly on the Thames estuary. | Then, of course, there's Boris Johnson, a London mayor in search of a defining issue for his political career, frustrated that the prime minister has not made a decision on the issue, determined to have a third runway at Heathrow ruled out, and for a new airport, popularly known as "Boris Island", to be built swiftly on the Thames estuary. |
| It is a political quagmire that even the most capable of mandarins might struggle with and Davies has not, it is pointed out, enjoyed the easiest of times recently. His period as executive chairman of the FSA, where he stewarded light-touch regulation of the City between 1997 and 2003, cannot be said to have been an unqualified success. It was on his watch that the banking crisis, which in part delivered the UK its double-dip recession, was brewing. | It is a political quagmire that even the most capable of mandarins might struggle with and Davies has not, it is pointed out, enjoyed the easiest of times recently. His period as executive chairman of the FSA, where he stewarded light-touch regulation of the City between 1997 and 2003, cannot be said to have been an unqualified success. It was on his watch that the banking crisis, which in part delivered the UK its double-dip recession, was brewing. |
| His next job was as director of the LSE, a position he resigned from last year after it emerged that the university had taken a £300,000 donation from a foundation run by none other than the playboy son of Colonel Gaddafi, Saif, who is currently incarcerated by the new Libyan government but wanted by the International Criminal Court to face charges of crimes against humanity. | His next job was as director of the LSE, a position he resigned from last year after it emerged that the university had taken a £300,000 donation from a foundation run by none other than the playboy son of Colonel Gaddafi, Saif, who is currently incarcerated by the new Libyan government but wanted by the International Criminal Court to face charges of crimes against humanity. |
| Perhaps it was felt that a decision on airport capacity would be a doddle for a man who has dealt with all that. As a Treasury mandarin in 1979 he was, after all, in charge of nationalising British Aerospace under Labour, then equally quickly privatising it under Margaret Thatcher. "It was crazy," he admits. | Perhaps it was felt that a decision on airport capacity would be a doddle for a man who has dealt with all that. As a Treasury mandarin in 1979 he was, after all, in charge of nationalising British Aerospace under Labour, then equally quickly privatising it under Margaret Thatcher. "It was crazy," he admits. |
| But Davies's frustration at the political debate raging, even on day one of the launch of his commission into Britain's aviation – due to publish an interim report in 2013 and a final one in 2015 – is evident: "Obviously we have to have a public process here but the public process I want is about the issues rather than about the timing and the politics." | But Davies's frustration at the political debate raging, even on day one of the launch of his commission into Britain's aviation – due to publish an interim report in 2013 and a final one in 2015 – is evident: "Obviously we have to have a public process here but the public process I want is about the issues rather than about the timing and the politics." |
| On Friday morning he gave a short interview to the Today programme but didn't know, until he spoke to the producers, that Johnson, all fired up, was coming on later to trash everything he had said, in particular the plan to wait three years for Davies's answers to the big questions. It was an undoubted attempt to ambush Davies on his big day. "Did he succeed?" Davies asks. The headlines the following day suggest Johnson may have, although it will be Davies's word on Britain's airports that will be the last. | On Friday morning he gave a short interview to the Today programme but didn't know, until he spoke to the producers, that Johnson, all fired up, was coming on later to trash everything he had said, in particular the plan to wait three years for Davies's answers to the big questions. It was an undoubted attempt to ambush Davies on his big day. "Did he succeed?" Davies asks. The headlines the following day suggest Johnson may have, although it will be Davies's word on Britain's airports that will be the last. |
| The former mandarin, who will work "a day, or a day and a half, a week" in the unpaid role, admits that he "can't be convinced" that when he reports in 2015 the politicians will actually listen. | The former mandarin, who will work "a day, or a day and a half, a week" in the unpaid role, admits that he "can't be convinced" that when he reports in 2015 the politicians will actually listen. |
| It may be a new government; what is certain is that the politics of the moment will be different, and that matters. The Conservatives, who delighted in ruling out a third runway at Heathrow before the 2010 general election on environmental grounds, are now procrastinating and split on the issue, hence pushing it into what Davies admits is the "long grass" of his commission. | It may be a new government; what is certain is that the politics of the moment will be different, and that matters. The Conservatives, who delighted in ruling out a third runway at Heathrow before the 2010 general election on environmental grounds, are now procrastinating and split on the issue, hence pushing it into what Davies admits is the "long grass" of his commission. |
| And Labour has been on a diametrically opposite journey. "I note it is not that long ago that the Labour party was in favour of the third runway and appeared to be going to go ahead and now it is not fashionable again," he says. "I don't think you can take these things as completely fixed anyway." | And Labour has been on a diametrically opposite journey. "I note it is not that long ago that the Labour party was in favour of the third runway and appeared to be going to go ahead and now it is not fashionable again," he says. "I don't think you can take these things as completely fixed anyway." |
| So he won't allow Boris and the politics of the moment to come into the commission's thinking? "No, I don't think we can afford them to be. I think the whole point of asking an independent commission to do this is in order not to do that. I observe the political debate swirling around this, but I don't think it makes sense to get involved in it. | So he won't allow Boris and the politics of the moment to come into the commission's thinking? "No, I don't think we can afford them to be. I think the whole point of asking an independent commission to do this is in order not to do that. I observe the political debate swirling around this, but I don't think it makes sense to get involved in it. |
| "I think you have to step back a bit and start with demand forecasts, how do you fit it into the climate change commitment? How different is the rail environment, does that open up options that you've not had before? And you have to build from there and see where that takes you. But we have been told that all options, including the third runway, are on the table and for the moment that is where they shall remain." | "I think you have to step back a bit and start with demand forecasts, how do you fit it into the climate change commitment? How different is the rail environment, does that open up options that you've not had before? And you have to build from there and see where that takes you. But we have been told that all options, including the third runway, are on the table and for the moment that is where they shall remain." |
| Whatever way Davies falls on the issues ahead, there will be critics, fierce ones. How do you weigh up the interests of homeowners under the flight path at Heathrow against the economic stimulus of building a proper hub airport, with one, maybe two, new runways? "We haven't worked that out yet. The things you have got to look at include 'are you going to create more unpleasant noise for people?'. | Whatever way Davies falls on the issues ahead, there will be critics, fierce ones. How do you weigh up the interests of homeowners under the flight path at Heathrow against the economic stimulus of building a proper hub airport, with one, maybe two, new runways? "We haven't worked that out yet. The things you have got to look at include 'are you going to create more unpleasant noise for people?'. |
| "There are some options which say that you wouldn't necessarily do that. If you move where the runways are, there are options for moving Heathrow westward; that's an interesting sort of idea which would reduce the noise envelope. Other countries have got other compensation regimes, but we haven't got an equation for doing that at this point." | "There are some options which say that you wouldn't necessarily do that. If you move where the runways are, there are options for moving Heathrow westward; that's an interesting sort of idea which would reduce the noise envelope. Other countries have got other compensation regimes, but we haven't got an equation for doing that at this point." |
| But he is equally keen to look at Boris's plan, which is why he insisted to the prime minister that his commission needed to at least shortlist the options in his 2013 interim report. "The estuary island has the mayor supporting it, but it doesn't really have a corporate sponsor because it isn't there. So if you decide that is the one you want to look at, you need to have time to do some more work yourself, and the commission will do more work to level the playing field, if you like". | But he is equally keen to look at Boris's plan, which is why he insisted to the prime minister that his commission needed to at least shortlist the options in his 2013 interim report. "The estuary island has the mayor supporting it, but it doesn't really have a corporate sponsor because it isn't there. So if you decide that is the one you want to look at, you need to have time to do some more work yourself, and the commission will do more work to level the playing field, if you like". |
| What clearly will not influence Davies, a Manchester Grammar School boy, Oxford graduate and alumnus of Stanford Graduate School of Business, is the prime minister's notion of a happiness index, once promoted by David Cameron as a rival barometer of success to growth which, it was said, would play a key role in the big future policy decisions. | What clearly will not influence Davies, a Manchester Grammar School boy, Oxford graduate and alumnus of Stanford Graduate School of Business, is the prime minister's notion of a happiness index, once promoted by David Cameron as a rival barometer of success to growth which, it was said, would play a key role in the big future policy decisions. |
| "I think that's quite difficult territory and I haven't seen that that has gone terribly far," he says. "There are these, you know, happiness indices, but I don't quite know what they mean really." | "I think that's quite difficult territory and I haven't seen that that has gone terribly far," he says. "There are these, you know, happiness indices, but I don't quite know what they mean really." |
| Neither can we expect him to be a climate change pioneer. He worked as an adviser to the sceptic Nigel Lawson in the 1980s, but refuses to discuss his own views, adding that it is irrelevant because he will work within the government's climate change commitments. | Neither can we expect him to be a climate change pioneer. He worked as an adviser to the sceptic Nigel Lawson in the 1980s, but refuses to discuss his own views, adding that it is irrelevant because he will work within the government's climate change commitments. |
| "I am honestly not sufficiently expert to have my own independent views on climate change," he says. "But certainly the fact that I once worked for Nigel Lawson– now 28 years ago – is not relevant. What I do is take whatever the commitment is. There is a government commitment, and indeed there is legislation, that says we are going to reduce our emissions by 80% by 2050." | "I am honestly not sufficiently expert to have my own independent views on climate change," he says. "But certainly the fact that I once worked for Nigel Lawson– now 28 years ago – is not relevant. What I do is take whatever the commitment is. There is a government commitment, and indeed there is legislation, that says we are going to reduce our emissions by 80% by 2050." |
| It is possible, of course, that Davies could simply rejig things and not suggest any building projects at all in 2015. There is spare capacity in less popular airports, while some in the environmental lobby say that the UK would be able to cope with demand up until 2050, based on a recent dip in the number of people travelling and perhaps pessimistic forecasts on the UK's economic growth. | It is possible, of course, that Davies could simply rejig things and not suggest any building projects at all in 2015. There is spare capacity in less popular airports, while some in the environmental lobby say that the UK would be able to cope with demand up until 2050, based on a recent dip in the number of people travelling and perhaps pessimistic forecasts on the UK's economic growth. |
| But it doesn't sound likely. "I was in Scotland last week and there were two flights a day to go to Dubai, taking people and rerouting them to India, or wherever. So now we might decide as a nation that that is sustainable, but clearly at the moment it is not the plan is it? Nobody is saying we should stop having any flights here and they should bugger off and go somewhere else. | But it doesn't sound likely. "I was in Scotland last week and there were two flights a day to go to Dubai, taking people and rerouting them to India, or wherever. So now we might decide as a nation that that is sustainable, but clearly at the moment it is not the plan is it? Nobody is saying we should stop having any flights here and they should bugger off and go somewhere else. |
| "So given that the brief is to say how do you maintain international hub status, it does look like doing nothing is not likely to achieve that." | "So given that the brief is to say how do you maintain international hub status, it does look like doing nothing is not likely to achieve that." |
| Is Davies, despite the delays, ultimately going to be seen as a man of action? "Actually, I've got to go now. I've got an insurance company to run." | Is Davies, despite the delays, ultimately going to be seen as a man of action? "Actually, I've got to go now. I've got an insurance company to run." |
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