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| Poor communication obscures emergency warnings | Poor communication obscures emergency warnings |
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| The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck off British Columbia's Canadian northwest coast this past weekend set off a chain of broken communication that is reminiscent of what happened in L'Aquila, Italy. Last week, an Italian court convicted six government scientists and a government spokesman of manslaughter, sentencing each to six years in prison, for failing to adequately communicate the risk of a large earthquake striking. | The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck off British Columbia's Canadian northwest coast this past weekend set off a chain of broken communication that is reminiscent of what happened in L'Aquila, Italy. Last week, an Italian court convicted six government scientists and a government spokesman of manslaughter, sentencing each to six years in prison, for failing to adequately communicate the risk of a large earthquake striking. |
| We all know the broken telephone game (also known as Chinese whispers). You murmur a message into the ear of the person next to you. They pass it on, and so on, round the circle – and then we all chuckle as we discover how that message has changed through its re-tellings. This is essentially how emergency warning systems work. But when scientists' conclusions are passed through various parties on their way to local citizens, who need to know only whether they are in danger or not, it is the broken telephone game with the added complication that there is already a gap between the way scientists understand information and the way that same information may be understood by members of the general public. | We all know the broken telephone game (also known as Chinese whispers). You murmur a message into the ear of the person next to you. They pass it on, and so on, round the circle – and then we all chuckle as we discover how that message has changed through its re-tellings. This is essentially how emergency warning systems work. But when scientists' conclusions are passed through various parties on their way to local citizens, who need to know only whether they are in danger or not, it is the broken telephone game with the added complication that there is already a gap between the way scientists understand information and the way that same information may be understood by members of the general public. |
| Professor John Clague, a geologist who specialises in earthquakes and seismic risk at Vancouver's Simon Fraser University, understands well the problems of trying to communicate both science and uncertainty. He is often the "go-to guy" for the Canadian media when they need a quip following any seismic rumble. But even he, a specialist in the field, faces a challenge when trying to comprehend and relay the information. | Professor John Clague, a geologist who specialises in earthquakes and seismic risk at Vancouver's Simon Fraser University, understands well the problems of trying to communicate both science and uncertainty. He is often the "go-to guy" for the Canadian media when they need a quip following any seismic rumble. But even he, a specialist in the field, faces a challenge when trying to comprehend and relay the information. |
| Government agencies automatically post information almost immediately after a seismic event. However, while the Geological Survey of Canada initially assessed this quake as magnitude 7.1, the United States Geological Survey put it at 7.7. These numbers may sound nearly the same to a layperson, but Clague knows that a 7.7 quake releases 20 times more energy than a 7.1 quake – a significant difference in his assessment of risk. Three days after the quake, the two institutions still differ on the location of its centre by about 40 km: the Geological Survey of Canada places it under the ocean (where it is more likely to generate a tsunami) and the US Geological Survey places it under land. "It irritates me," Clague says, "because I'm getting requests to provide understandable information. But when I'm not getting accurate information from the seismologists, it makes life difficult." | |
| And this is all before the information enters the broken telephone line. | And this is all before the information enters the broken telephone line. |
| In North America, the assessment of tsunami risk is communicated from primary government sources, such as Natural Resources Canada/Earthquakes Canada, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, to provincial emergency planning entities such as Emergency Info BC, as well as to anyone who signs up to receive their bulletins, from municipal officials to media and individual citizens. Many municipal officials seem to have believed that they were supposed to wait their turn down the chain, to receive direction from the province. The province had no new information; for nearly an hour, it broadcast nothing further. Municipal officials, however, hearing nothing from the venue that they expected to hear from, felt stuck with no information. | In North America, the assessment of tsunami risk is communicated from primary government sources, such as Natural Resources Canada/Earthquakes Canada, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, to provincial emergency planning entities such as Emergency Info BC, as well as to anyone who signs up to receive their bulletins, from municipal officials to media and individual citizens. Many municipal officials seem to have believed that they were supposed to wait their turn down the chain, to receive direction from the province. The province had no new information; for nearly an hour, it broadcast nothing further. Municipal officials, however, hearing nothing from the venue that they expected to hear from, felt stuck with no information. |
| "This is a problem for the communities, because they didn't have any information [from the province] for close to an hour," says Clague. He notes that everyone was lucky this time, because the wave that was generated was so small. "By the time they heard something, the tsunami wave had already arrived in many of these communities." | "This is a problem for the communities, because they didn't have any information [from the province] for close to an hour," says Clague. He notes that everyone was lucky this time, because the wave that was generated was so small. "By the time they heard something, the tsunami wave had already arrived in many of these communities." |
| Tofino, a remote village of about 1,800 people located on a low-lying peninsula on the west coast of Vancouver Island, was one of those communities that felt it was left in that information void. Although bulletins issued by NOAA within minutes of the quake indicated that Tofino was not within the tsunami warning zone, in the absence of any information from the province, the mayor and the local emergency crew activated the tsunami warning sirens and implemented an evacuation plan for residents in low-lying areas. | Tofino, a remote village of about 1,800 people located on a low-lying peninsula on the west coast of Vancouver Island, was one of those communities that felt it was left in that information void. Although bulletins issued by NOAA within minutes of the quake indicated that Tofino was not within the tsunami warning zone, in the absence of any information from the province, the mayor and the local emergency crew activated the tsunami warning sirens and implemented an evacuation plan for residents in low-lying areas. |
| Joanna Streetly was one of the residents affected. She had already received the NOAA bulletin by email, and she knew that her family was safe where they were. But the blaring sirens were frightening her eight-year-old daughter, and the conflicting information she was receiving was unsettling. So, along with hundreds of other Tofino residents, she packed her family up late that night, to head for the high ground in the centre of town. | Joanna Streetly was one of the residents affected. She had already received the NOAA bulletin by email, and she knew that her family was safe where they were. But the blaring sirens were frightening her eight-year-old daughter, and the conflicting information she was receiving was unsettling. So, along with hundreds of other Tofino residents, she packed her family up late that night, to head for the high ground in the centre of town. |
| What this needless evacuation points to is a problem in communication. The issue, in the end, is little different from the issue in L'Aquila: our communication system, as set up, does not work. In L'Aquila, the government scientists did the science, but clear communication with the public did not occur. Jailing scientists on manslaughter charges will not fix that problem: changing the communication systems will. Here, in Canada, the communication system also broke down. Luckily, the tsunami waves that arrived during that one-hour information void this weekend measured centimetres, not metres. Luckily, community officials who did not understand the information issued to them were not actually under any tsunami warning. | What this needless evacuation points to is a problem in communication. The issue, in the end, is little different from the issue in L'Aquila: our communication system, as set up, does not work. In L'Aquila, the government scientists did the science, but clear communication with the public did not occur. Jailing scientists on manslaughter charges will not fix that problem: changing the communication systems will. Here, in Canada, the communication system also broke down. Luckily, the tsunami waves that arrived during that one-hour information void this weekend measured centimetres, not metres. Luckily, community officials who did not understand the information issued to them were not actually under any tsunami warning. |
| No one died, so no one's head is now on the chopping block. This time. | No one died, so no one's head is now on the chopping block. This time. |