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Will China fall flat on its face just like Japan? Will China fall flat on its face just like Japan?
(8 days later)
By Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC NewsBy Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC News
In the late 80s, Japan was the Godzilla economy.In the late 80s, Japan was the Godzilla economy.
Its output had grown 50-fold in dollar terms in the space of a generation, and Japan had seemingly overtaken the US as the most hi-tech nation. For many observers it was just a matter of a decade or so before Japan would become the world's biggest economy and its third superpower. Its output had grown 50-fold in dollar terms in the space of just over a generation, and Japan had seemingly overtaken the US as the most hi-tech nation. For many observers it was just a matter of a decade or so before Japan would become the world's biggest economy and its third superpower.
But, of course, things didn't turn out that way. Instead, in 1990 Japan's stock market and property market both crashed spectacularly, leaving two decades (and counting) of economic stagnation in their wake.But, of course, things didn't turn out that way. Instead, in 1990 Japan's stock market and property market both crashed spectacularly, leaving two decades (and counting) of economic stagnation in their wake.
The more recent giddy rise of China's dragon economy is chillingly familiar.The more recent giddy rise of China's dragon economy is chillingly familiar.
And many sceptical commentators have drawn the analogy with Japan, saying it is destined for a fall. But is this fair?And many sceptical commentators have drawn the analogy with Japan, saying it is destined for a fall. But is this fair?
We have put the two head-to-head, so you can decide:We have put the two head-to-head, so you can decide: