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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Hurricane Sandy: what to expect, where | Hurricane Sandy: what to expect, where |
| (7 days later) | |
| Hurricane Sandy is beginning to make its left turn in the Atlantic on its way to southern New Jersey and, eventually, Pennsylvania. We are already feeling the effects of the rain and wind associated with this massive storm. It's scheduled to make landfall as about a 945 millibar low – an all-time record for New Jersey. (See my earlier commentary on how this storm is will set itself apart.) | Hurricane Sandy is beginning to make its left turn in the Atlantic on its way to southern New Jersey and, eventually, Pennsylvania. We are already feeling the effects of the rain and wind associated with this massive storm. It's scheduled to make landfall as about a 945 millibar low – an all-time record for New Jersey. (See my earlier commentary on how this storm is will set itself apart.) |
| Now, it's crunch time when we will finally feel the full brunt of Sandy. We are expecting rain amounts of up to 12 inches in southern New Jersey, with 3-6 inches the norm even over 200 miles inland. This will lead to a lot of flooding. | Now, it's crunch time when we will finally feel the full brunt of Sandy. We are expecting rain amounts of up to 12 inches in southern New Jersey, with 3-6 inches the norm even over 200 miles inland. This will lead to a lot of flooding. |
| We can expect storm surges of 6ft and more above normal from Delaware to Rhode Island thanks to the wind and full moon. This has meant evacuations, and will only make flooding worse. | We can expect storm surges of 6ft and more above normal from Delaware to Rhode Island thanks to the wind and full moon. This has meant evacuations, and will only make flooding worse. |
| Snowfall upwards of 12-24in, even up to 36in, will be possible in the mountains of West Virginia. Snow will also extend down the Appalachian mountain chain into North Carolina, where 4-8in, perhaps up to 12in, will fall. | Snowfall upwards of 12-24in, even up to 36in, will be possible in the mountains of West Virginia. Snow will also extend down the Appalachian mountain chain into North Carolina, where 4-8in, perhaps up to 12in, will fall. |
| All of this will be combined with sustained wins of 40-50mph and gusts of up to 60-75mph in many places. The result will certainly be widespread outages, with many people without power. | All of this will be combined with sustained wins of 40-50mph and gusts of up to 60-75mph in many places. The result will certainly be widespread outages, with many people without power. |
| But let's get more specific. Here's a breakdown of the major coastal cities and a few inland areas 200-plus miles inland to give you an idea of how individual places will be encountering the storm. | But let's get more specific. Here's a breakdown of the major coastal cities and a few inland areas 200-plus miles inland to give you an idea of how individual places will be encountering the storm. |
| New York City | New York City |
| Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Monday night, with heavy showers lasting through Tuesday, and perhaps light showers through Wednesday. We are expecting around 3in overall, with more to the south and less to the north. | Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Monday night, with heavy showers lasting through Tuesday, and perhaps light showers through Wednesday. We are expecting around 3in overall, with more to the south and less to the north. |
| Winds: 35mph sustained winds during the day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 50mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature hurricane force gusts of 75mph. Winds should drop to about 30mph during the day Tuesday, and fall below 20mph on Tuesday night. | Winds: 35mph sustained winds during the day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 50mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature hurricane force gusts of 75mph. Winds should drop to about 30mph during the day Tuesday, and fall below 20mph on Tuesday night. |
| Storm surge: 6-11ft above normal on Monday night into Tuesday. This could break a record at Battery Park, in lower Manhattan. Worst-case scenario would be streets under water in lower Manhattan. | Storm surge: 6-11ft above normal on Monday night into Tuesday. This could break a record at Battery Park, in lower Manhattan. Worst-case scenario would be streets under water in lower Manhattan. |
| Worst period: Monday night into early Tuesday. | Worst period: Monday night into early Tuesday. |
| Philadelphia | Philadelphia |
| Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Monday night, with heavy showers lasting through Tuesday, and perhaps light showers through Wednesday. We are expecting around 6in overall, with more to the south and east and less to the north. | Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Monday night, with heavy showers lasting through Tuesday, and perhaps light showers through Wednesday. We are expecting around 6in overall, with more to the south and east and less to the north. |
| Winds: up to 40mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 45mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of 65mph. Winds should hold at 35-45mph Tuesday, before falling to 20mph on Tuesday night. | Winds: up to 40mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 45mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of 65mph. Winds should hold at 35-45mph Tuesday, before falling to 20mph on Tuesday night. |
| Storm surge: 5-7ft above normal on Monday night into Tuesday, which, with 6in of rain, is an ugly scenario. | Storm surge: 5-7ft above normal on Monday night into Tuesday, which, with 6in of rain, is an ugly scenario. |
| Worst period: Monday night into most of Tuesday | Worst period: Monday night into most of Tuesday |
| Washington, DC | Washington, DC |
| Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Monday night, with heavy showers lasting through Tuesday, and perhaps light showers through Tuesday night into Wednesday. We are expecting around 6in overall, with more to the north and east and less to the south and west. | Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Monday night, with heavy showers lasting through Tuesday, and perhaps light showers through Tuesday night into Wednesday. We are expecting around 6in overall, with more to the north and east and less to the south and west. |
| Winds: up to 35mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 45mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of near-hurricane levels of 70mph. Winds should hold at 40-45mph Tuesday before falling to 20-30mph on Tuesday night. | Winds: up to 35mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 45mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of near-hurricane levels of 70mph. Winds should hold at 40-45mph Tuesday before falling to 20-30mph on Tuesday night. |
| Storm surge: not a real factor, but flooding should still be an issue with 6in of rain. | Storm surge: not a real factor, but flooding should still be an issue with 6in of rain. |
| Worst period: Monday for rain, and Monday night through Tuesday for winds. | Worst period: Monday for rain, and Monday night through Tuesday for winds. |
| State College, Pennsylvania | State College, Pennsylvania |
| Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Tuesday, with heavy showers lasting through perhaps Wednesday night, and lighter showers through Thursday night. We are expecting around 3-6in overall. | Rain: consistently during the day Monday, through Tuesday, with heavy showers lasting through perhaps Wednesday night, and lighter showers through Thursday night. We are expecting around 3-6in overall. |
| Winds: up to 25mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 35mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of 60mph. Winds should hold at 20-30mph Tuesday before falling to 20mph on Tuesday night, with gusts still around 35mph. | Winds: up to 25mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 35mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of 60mph. Winds should hold at 20-30mph Tuesday before falling to 20mph on Tuesday night, with gusts still around 35mph. |
| Storm surge: not an issue, but flooding could be significant nonetheless. | Storm surge: not an issue, but flooding could be significant nonetheless. |
| Worst period: Monday night through Tuesday. | Worst period: Monday night through Tuesday. |
| Snowshoe, West Virginia | Snowshoe, West Virginia |
| Snow: it's snowing now and will keep doing so all the way through at least Wednesday. We're going to see easily 1-2in per hour during the Monday overnight. We are expecting 1-2ft or more, when all's said and done. | Snow: it's snowing now and will keep doing so all the way through at least Wednesday. We're going to see easily 1-2in per hour during the Monday overnight. We are expecting 1-2ft or more, when all's said and done. |
| Winds: up to 35mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 55mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of 65mph. Winds should hold at 30-35mph Tuesday, before falling to 20-25mph on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with gusts still around 40mph. | Winds: up to 35mph sustained winds during late day Monday, which will increase to upwards of 55mph during the overnight hours. The overnight period could also feature strong gusts of 65mph. Winds should hold at 30-35mph Tuesday, before falling to 20-25mph on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with gusts still around 40mph. |
| Storm surge: no issue here. It's all snow – and there's a reason a blizzard warning is in effect. | Storm surge: no issue here. It's all snow – and there's a reason a blizzard warning is in effect. |
| Worst period: it's all bad, but heaviest snowfall rates look to be on Monday night into Tuesday. | Worst period: it's all bad, but heaviest snowfall rates look to be on Monday night into Tuesday. |
| Overall | Overall |
| If the forecasts are anywhere close to being correct, this one will be remembered for a long time. | If the forecasts are anywhere close to being correct, this one will be remembered for a long time. |
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