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Surviving the Infirmity of 2 Unions Surviving the Infirmity of 2 Unions
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LONDON — When their day is done, empires shrink back on themselves, but the yearning for greatness never quite fades.LONDON — When their day is done, empires shrink back on themselves, but the yearning for greatness never quite fades.
Imperial rule leaves its imprint on the overlord as much as the lorded over. Colonialism scars the colonized for decades, but, for their erstwhile masters, the itch to play once more on the big stage never quite goes away.Imperial rule leaves its imprint on the overlord as much as the lorded over. Colonialism scars the colonized for decades, but, for their erstwhile masters, the itch to play once more on the big stage never quite goes away.
Or so it has seemed.Or so it has seemed.
Rising from the Ottoman ruins in 1923, modern Turkey now seeks to resurrect regional power in lands that once fell under the sway of the sultans. The Soviet empire dwindled as the Berlin Wall crumbled in 1989. But that has merely emboldened President Vladimir V. Putin to thrust his land to the fore, both globally and in Russia’s “near abroad” — witness Moscow’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. (A nuclear arsenal and lots of oil and gas help, of course.)Rising from the Ottoman ruins in 1923, modern Turkey now seeks to resurrect regional power in lands that once fell under the sway of the sultans. The Soviet empire dwindled as the Berlin Wall crumbled in 1989. But that has merely emboldened President Vladimir V. Putin to thrust his land to the fore, both globally and in Russia’s “near abroad” — witness Moscow’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. (A nuclear arsenal and lots of oil and gas help, of course.)
As much as it may wish to disown memories of the Reich, Germany seems condemned to lead in Europe, if only by dint of its economic brawn. France has kindled its vaunted exceptionalism from the ashes of an empire that lingered in some West African lands long after formal independence. Italy still seeks a special place in the affairs of its former colony in Libya, while Rome is built on the ruins of a much grander empire. In the catalog of Europe’s former imperial powers, only Austria’s modesty, possibly tactical, offers an exception to prove the rule.As much as it may wish to disown memories of the Reich, Germany seems condemned to lead in Europe, if only by dint of its economic brawn. France has kindled its vaunted exceptionalism from the ashes of an empire that lingered in some West African lands long after formal independence. Italy still seeks a special place in the affairs of its former colony in Libya, while Rome is built on the ruins of a much grander empire. In the catalog of Europe’s former imperial powers, only Austria’s modesty, possibly tactical, offers an exception to prove the rule.
Yet, could it be that Britain, the arch-imperialist from Asia to Africa to America, has finally accepted its post-colonial contraction? After decades seeking to overcome the economic and political debilitation of victory in World War II, has Britain come to terms with the notion that the Little Englanders have won the day, as they failed to do with their opposition to colonialism in the 19th and early 20th centuries? Yet, could it be that Britain, the arch-imperialist from Asia to Africa to the Americas, has finally accepted its post-colonial contraction? After decades seeking to overcome the economic and political debilitation of victory in World War II, has Britain come to terms with the notion that the Little Englanders have won the day, as they failed to do with their opposition to colonialism in the 19th and early 20th centuries?
Consider just two moments last week, when Prime Minister David Cameron signed a formal agreement on the terms of a referendum on Scottish independence in two years’ time, and signaled more clearly than ever his desire for a “new settlement” with the other 26 members of the European Union.Consider just two moments last week, when Prime Minister David Cameron signed a formal agreement on the terms of a referendum on Scottish independence in two years’ time, and signaled more clearly than ever his desire for a “new settlement” with the other 26 members of the European Union.
Now take both developments to their potential conclusion. By late 2014 — coincidentally the deadline for Britain to end its role in the most enduring projection of 21st-century power in Afghanistan — Scotland will conceivably be on the way to dissolving 300 years of union with Britain. Then, to win euro-skeptic support in the scheduled 2015 national vote, Mr. Cameron may hold another plebiscite to seek Britons’ consent to a new relationship with the European Union, foreshadowing the negation or dilution of Britain’s bonds with its most important trading partner.Now take both developments to their potential conclusion. By late 2014 — coincidentally the deadline for Britain to end its role in the most enduring projection of 21st-century power in Afghanistan — Scotland will conceivably be on the way to dissolving 300 years of union with Britain. Then, to win euro-skeptic support in the scheduled 2015 national vote, Mr. Cameron may hold another plebiscite to seek Britons’ consent to a new relationship with the European Union, foreshadowing the negation or dilution of Britain’s bonds with its most important trading partner.
The cartography of erstwhile empire could well be supplanted by a rump state between the English Channel and a new Scottish frontier to the north. Britain’s voice in European affairs would be silenced or diminished, its access to European markets and North Sea oil limited, and its base rights in Scotland for nuclear-armed submarines, the very totem of global reach, threatened by the newly empowered authorities in Edinburgh.The cartography of erstwhile empire could well be supplanted by a rump state between the English Channel and a new Scottish frontier to the north. Britain’s voice in European affairs would be silenced or diminished, its access to European markets and North Sea oil limited, and its base rights in Scotland for nuclear-armed submarines, the very totem of global reach, threatened by the newly empowered authorities in Edinburgh.
That scenario, some would say, is exaggerated. Indeed, it is hard to see why British politicians would take such risks, although the politics of introspection rarely function along lines of obvious logic.That scenario, some would say, is exaggerated. Indeed, it is hard to see why British politicians would take such risks, although the politics of introspection rarely function along lines of obvious logic.
Many questions remain to be thrashed out, including the depth of Mr. Cameron’s commitment to Britain as what he called “a very active and strong participant in the European Union.”Many questions remain to be thrashed out, including the depth of Mr. Cameron’s commitment to Britain as what he called “a very active and strong participant in the European Union.”
Many answers will emerge from Europe’s handling of the euro crisis.Many answers will emerge from Europe’s handling of the euro crisis.
The 17 countries using the single currency, led by Germany but not including Britain, clearly confront a common challenge. But, while euro zone leaders promote ever-closer integration, British euro-skeptics associate such cozy talk with a loss of sovereignty to be resisted at all costs.The 17 countries using the single currency, led by Germany but not including Britain, clearly confront a common challenge. But, while euro zone leaders promote ever-closer integration, British euro-skeptics associate such cozy talk with a loss of sovereignty to be resisted at all costs.
While Continental Europeans talk, publicly at least, of solidarity in adversity, Mr. Cameron has sounded a more solipsistic tone, saying Europe’s turmoil yields “fresh opportunities” for Britain.While Continental Europeans talk, publicly at least, of solidarity in adversity, Mr. Cameron has sounded a more solipsistic tone, saying Europe’s turmoil yields “fresh opportunities” for Britain.
Above all, those on the right who want Britain to go it alone seem to calculate that, as earlier in its history, their land has the might to stand apart from, and above, its peers. They do not acknowledge that, from a Continental perspective, their ambivalence toward the common European endeavor is becoming tiresome.Above all, those on the right who want Britain to go it alone seem to calculate that, as earlier in its history, their land has the might to stand apart from, and above, its peers. They do not acknowledge that, from a Continental perspective, their ambivalence toward the common European endeavor is becoming tiresome.
At a recent gathering hosted by the International Herald Tribune in Paris, a panel of Europeans aired their concerns without once mentioning Britain. As Alex Stubb, the Finnish minister for European affairs, told Reuters, “It’s almost as if the boat is pulling away and one of our best friends is somehow saying ‘bye-bye’ and there’s not really that much we can do about it.”At a recent gathering hosted by the International Herald Tribune in Paris, a panel of Europeans aired their concerns without once mentioning Britain. As Alex Stubb, the Finnish minister for European affairs, told Reuters, “It’s almost as if the boat is pulling away and one of our best friends is somehow saying ‘bye-bye’ and there’s not really that much we can do about it.”
On both his Scottish and European fronts, Mr. Cameron insisted that Britain would survive with both unions intact. If he is wrong, then the Little Englanders might well discover just how small their post-imperial realm could be.On both his Scottish and European fronts, Mr. Cameron insisted that Britain would survive with both unions intact. If he is wrong, then the Little Englanders might well discover just how small their post-imperial realm could be.