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| Republicans dare to believe in President Mitt Romney | Republicans dare to believe in President Mitt Romney |
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| As Republican challenger Mitt Romney addressed a throng of supporters in the Virginian town of Leesburg last week, he started to rattle through a list of campaign promises. "When I become president" he began. Then he paused and regarded the crowd for a moment before repeating the first word with extra emphasis. "When I become president, we are finally going to cut spending," he said, to shouts of approval. | As Republican challenger Mitt Romney addressed a throng of supporters in the Virginian town of Leesburg last week, he started to rattle through a list of campaign promises. "When I become president" he began. Then he paused and regarded the crowd for a moment before repeating the first word with extra emphasis. "When I become president, we are finally going to cut spending," he said, to shouts of approval. |
| It would have fallen flat just a few weeks ago. The former Massachusetts governor's campaign was emerging from a disastrous summer. It was firmly behind in the polls, had been savaged by an efficient Democrat attack machine and been hit by the release of a secret videotape revealing Romney dismissing 47% of Americans as dependent on government. Many observers, including some panicking Republicans, were writing him off as a rightwing version of Michael Dukakis, another former Massachusetts governor, who was soundly beaten by George Bush in 1988. | It would have fallen flat just a few weeks ago. The former Massachusetts governor's campaign was emerging from a disastrous summer. It was firmly behind in the polls, had been savaged by an efficient Democrat attack machine and been hit by the release of a secret videotape revealing Romney dismissing 47% of Americans as dependent on government. Many observers, including some panicking Republicans, were writing him off as a rightwing version of Michael Dukakis, another former Massachusetts governor, who was soundly beaten by George Bush in 1988. |
| But that was then. In Leesburg, Romney appeared relaxed and confident, cracking jokes and launching attacks against President Barack Obama's economic record. He turned on the charm, too. "There is so much about this country I love," he gushed, before reciting a litany of inspiring anecdotes collected from his many months on the campaign trail. "We are going to win Virginia, you know that? We are going to win," he said. | But that was then. In Leesburg, Romney appeared relaxed and confident, cracking jokes and launching attacks against President Barack Obama's economic record. He turned on the charm, too. "There is so much about this country I love," he gushed, before reciting a litany of inspiring anecdotes collected from his many months on the campaign trail. "We are going to win Virginia, you know that? We are going to win," he said. |
| He has grounds for optimism. After Obama's disastrous performance in the first presidential debate – and Romney's solid, warm showing – the 2012 election has upended itself. For two weeks a flood of polls has detailed a surge in Romney's support. A Gallup tracking survey has him seven points in the lead nationally, beating Obama by 52% to 45%. In the key battlegrounds of Virginia and Florida, Romney is back in the game. He is closing the gap in Wisconsin, which many had seen as out of reach. Even in Pennsylvania, which no one had seen as up for grabs, one recent poll had him ahead. In North Carolina, which narrowly went for Obama in 2008, Romney's team is now so confident of victory that it has started moving out staff and redeploying them to Ohio. | He has grounds for optimism. After Obama's disastrous performance in the first presidential debate – and Romney's solid, warm showing – the 2012 election has upended itself. For two weeks a flood of polls has detailed a surge in Romney's support. A Gallup tracking survey has him seven points in the lead nationally, beating Obama by 52% to 45%. In the key battlegrounds of Virginia and Florida, Romney is back in the game. He is closing the gap in Wisconsin, which many had seen as out of reach. Even in Pennsylvania, which no one had seen as up for grabs, one recent poll had him ahead. In North Carolina, which narrowly went for Obama in 2008, Romney's team is now so confident of victory that it has started moving out staff and redeploying them to Ohio. |
| The Romney campaign, which all summer seemed on the defensive, is suddenly aggressively on the attack. It is hammering away at the issue of Obama's economic record, ignoring signs of a gradual recovery and instead repeatedly referring to high unemployment, millions of people on food stamps and growing poverty. It is a message that strikes a chord with many people still suffering from the impact of the recession. | The Romney campaign, which all summer seemed on the defensive, is suddenly aggressively on the attack. It is hammering away at the issue of Obama's economic record, ignoring signs of a gradual recovery and instead repeatedly referring to high unemployment, millions of people on food stamps and growing poverty. It is a message that strikes a chord with many people still suffering from the impact of the recession. |
| Certainly in the Leesburg crowd no one was talking about good times being ahead. "He was a governor of a Democratic state and if he was able to get things done there, then he could get things done anywhere. He should be able to make things happen on a national scale," said Diane Senyitko, 52, whose construction business has been hit hard for more than five years of economic turmoil. | Certainly in the Leesburg crowd no one was talking about good times being ahead. "He was a governor of a Democratic state and if he was able to get things done there, then he could get things done anywhere. He should be able to make things happen on a national scale," said Diane Senyitko, 52, whose construction business has been hit hard for more than five years of economic turmoil. |
| "Obama already had his chance. If he was going to bring about a recovery, it would have happened already," she said. Indeed, Senyitko is now campaigning for Romney, knocking on doors all over Leesburg and trying to win people over. "I see a lot of enthusiasm that I did not see before. I don't even think it will be neck and neck at the end. It will be a big win," she said. | "Obama already had his chance. If he was going to bring about a recovery, it would have happened already," she said. Indeed, Senyitko is now campaigning for Romney, knocking on doors all over Leesburg and trying to win people over. "I see a lot of enthusiasm that I did not see before. I don't even think it will be neck and neck at the end. It will be a big win," she said. |
| That is probably unlikely. Obama is still – when all the polls are taken into consideration – likely to be narrowly ahead. But the race has certainly shifted and the prospect of a Romney win has gone from a poor joke to a perfectly realistic prospect. "The chances that Romney will win have gotten a lot better," said Professor Kevin Leicht, a political expert at the University of Iowa. | That is probably unlikely. Obama is still – when all the polls are taken into consideration – likely to be narrowly ahead. But the race has certainly shifted and the prospect of a Romney win has gone from a poor joke to a perfectly realistic prospect. "The chances that Romney will win have gotten a lot better," said Professor Kevin Leicht, a political expert at the University of Iowa. |
| Now stories of internal dissent within the Romney camp have been replaced with accounts of a "happy warrior" candidate, comfortable at the end of an almost six-year quest to get to the White House. Party bigwigs – once critical of his campaign – have lined up loyally behind him. So have evangelical leaders, who privately remain sceptical because he is a Mormon. Media critics have fallen silent. Even Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's old guru, has been speculating enthusiastically on Romney's chances of winning the White House back for a party that in 2008 was seen as headed for a lengthy period in the wilderness. Already some have begun to speculate on what that would mean for America and the rest of the world. "He will run this country like the chief executive of a large corporation," said Steven Mitchell, a Republican pollster and founder of Mitchell Research. | Now stories of internal dissent within the Romney camp have been replaced with accounts of a "happy warrior" candidate, comfortable at the end of an almost six-year quest to get to the White House. Party bigwigs – once critical of his campaign – have lined up loyally behind him. So have evangelical leaders, who privately remain sceptical because he is a Mormon. Media critics have fallen silent. Even Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's old guru, has been speculating enthusiastically on Romney's chances of winning the White House back for a party that in 2008 was seen as headed for a lengthy period in the wilderness. Already some have begun to speculate on what that would mean for America and the rest of the world. "He will run this country like the chief executive of a large corporation," said Steven Mitchell, a Republican pollster and founder of Mitchell Research. |
| What you think of that prospect depends on your politics. Liberals would see such a thing as a return to the worst excesses from before the recession. Romney has pledged to deregulate Wall Street again and lower corporate taxes. He preaches the sort of "trickle down" economics of the 1980s that Ronald Reagan did, glorifying the wealthy and seeing tax breaks for them as having a broader economic benefit. | What you think of that prospect depends on your politics. Liberals would see such a thing as a return to the worst excesses from before the recession. Romney has pledged to deregulate Wall Street again and lower corporate taxes. He preaches the sort of "trickle down" economics of the 1980s that Ronald Reagan did, glorifying the wealthy and seeing tax breaks for them as having a broader economic benefit. |
| He wants to scrap Obama's healthcare reforms and take an axe to every part of government, except the military. Liberals fear all this will make America even more unequal, risk another financial meltdown and hurt the lowest levels of society for whom federal help is vital. | He wants to scrap Obama's healthcare reforms and take an axe to every part of government, except the military. Liberals fear all this will make America even more unequal, risk another financial meltdown and hurt the lowest levels of society for whom federal help is vital. |
| They also worry Romney will be beholden to the desires of the broader Republican party, especially in Congress, which, stuffed with Tea Party zealots and social conservatives, is far more rightwing than his presidential campaign. They worry the party will force Romney to extremes on everything from monetary policy to abortion, immigration and gay rights. "They have already influenced Romney in unfavourable ways. The prospects of going back to a pre-2008 environment are very real," said Leicht, referring to the extreme stances Romney adopted in order to win his party's nomination. | They also worry Romney will be beholden to the desires of the broader Republican party, especially in Congress, which, stuffed with Tea Party zealots and social conservatives, is far more rightwing than his presidential campaign. They worry the party will force Romney to extremes on everything from monetary policy to abortion, immigration and gay rights. "They have already influenced Romney in unfavourable ways. The prospects of going back to a pre-2008 environment are very real," said Leicht, referring to the extreme stances Romney adopted in order to win his party's nomination. |
| Republicans, obviously, see it differently. They see Romney as unshackling business, sparking broader economic growth and cutting out unnecessary spending that will reduce the deficit. They see Romney rescuing America from the fate of Greece and other heavily indebted European nations. "There will be a sea change from the current administration. People will invest in things again," said Mitchell. | Republicans, obviously, see it differently. They see Romney as unshackling business, sparking broader economic growth and cutting out unnecessary spending that will reduce the deficit. They see Romney rescuing America from the fate of Greece and other heavily indebted European nations. "There will be a sea change from the current administration. People will invest in things again," said Mitchell. |
| It might not be so easy, though. As Obama has found, America's system of government appears designed to end in deadlock. Republican intransigence stymied much of Obama's own domestic agenda. There is little reason to think Romney will fare any better if Democrats still control either part of Congress. Even with "Obamacare", Romney might not actually be able to fulfil his party's dreams by scrapping it altogether. "You can't just repeal it and not replace it with anything," said Leicht. Indeed much of Obamacare was based on Romney's own health reforms in Massachusetts. Such "flip flops" have long marked his political career and that makes predicting a Romney first term especially difficult: it has never been clear what his core beliefs are. "In the short term it is going to be hard for him to do very much at all. America's problems are actually too big for either candidate to solve easily," Leicht said. | It might not be so easy, though. As Obama has found, America's system of government appears designed to end in deadlock. Republican intransigence stymied much of Obama's own domestic agenda. There is little reason to think Romney will fare any better if Democrats still control either part of Congress. Even with "Obamacare", Romney might not actually be able to fulfil his party's dreams by scrapping it altogether. "You can't just repeal it and not replace it with anything," said Leicht. Indeed much of Obamacare was based on Romney's own health reforms in Massachusetts. Such "flip flops" have long marked his political career and that makes predicting a Romney first term especially difficult: it has never been clear what his core beliefs are. "In the short term it is going to be hard for him to do very much at all. America's problems are actually too big for either candidate to solve easily," Leicht said. |
| Of course there is still a long way to go. Though the Obama campaign has been rocked by the sudden upturn in Romney's fortunes, it remains on top of the race overall. Aside from Gallup, other polls have Obama narrowly ahead or statistically tied at a national level. More important are surveys coming out of the swing states which show Obama still ahead, especially in the midwestern heartland of Ohio. | Of course there is still a long way to go. Though the Obama campaign has been rocked by the sudden upturn in Romney's fortunes, it remains on top of the race overall. Aside from Gallup, other polls have Obama narrowly ahead or statistically tied at a national level. More important are surveys coming out of the swing states which show Obama still ahead, especially in the midwestern heartland of Ohio. |
| Among all the battlegrounds, it is Ohio that is most important. No Republican has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio and Obama is still solidly ahead there. Obama's operation in the state is huge and well-funded. Both Obama and the first lady have been regular visitors: his entire re-election campaign was launched in the state capital of Columbus. Bill Clinton has been touring the state. Even Bruce Springsteen has been deployed there. If Romney's advance can be stopped in Ohio, the main Democratic campaign argument runs, then it will be halted everywhere. But, essentially, the race for the Oval Office is now on a knife edge. | Among all the battlegrounds, it is Ohio that is most important. No Republican has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio and Obama is still solidly ahead there. Obama's operation in the state is huge and well-funded. Both Obama and the first lady have been regular visitors: his entire re-election campaign was launched in the state capital of Columbus. Bill Clinton has been touring the state. Even Bruce Springsteen has been deployed there. If Romney's advance can be stopped in Ohio, the main Democratic campaign argument runs, then it will be halted everywhere. But, essentially, the race for the Oval Office is now on a knife edge. |
| Only a few milestones remain, chief of which is Monday night's third and final debate in Florida. Yet, with its topic of foreign policy, that is unlikely to prove too much of a game-changer given that the electorate's overriding concern is jobs and the economy. "Honestly, put a gun to my head right now and ask me to pick a winner? I just don't know," said Mitchell. | Only a few milestones remain, chief of which is Monday night's third and final debate in Florida. Yet, with its topic of foreign policy, that is unlikely to prove too much of a game-changer given that the electorate's overriding concern is jobs and the economy. "Honestly, put a gun to my head right now and ask me to pick a winner? I just don't know," said Mitchell. |
| But in Leesburg they think they do. Around 8,000 people gathered to hear Romney speak in a park, enjoying the last warm days of autumn. After so much time campaigning and wooing the different camps of his party, Romney appeared to have finally stitched it all together behind him. | But in Leesburg they think they do. Around 8,000 people gathered to hear Romney speak in a park, enjoying the last warm days of autumn. After so much time campaigning and wooing the different camps of his party, Romney appeared to have finally stitched it all together behind him. |
| Take local IT specialist Matthew Russell, 49. He had begun supporting pizza magnate Herman Cain during the party's bitter nomination race, then favoured former House speaker Newt Gingrich. "Romney was my last choice," he confessed. But he was OK with things now, because Romney was offering the one thing that really does unite the party: he might beat Obama. "If the election was held tomorrow, then I think it would be Obama to win, but if the momentum keeps up this way then I think Romney will eke it out in November," he said. | Take local IT specialist Matthew Russell, 49. He had begun supporting pizza magnate Herman Cain during the party's bitter nomination race, then favoured former House speaker Newt Gingrich. "Romney was my last choice," he confessed. But he was OK with things now, because Romney was offering the one thing that really does unite the party: he might beat Obama. "If the election was held tomorrow, then I think it would be Obama to win, but if the momentum keeps up this way then I think Romney will eke it out in November," he said. |
| If Romney does win, it will not have been pretty. The 2012 election has seen Obama launch one of the most negative campaigns in recent memory claiming Romney is a heartless plutocrat who wants to take America back to the post civil war era satirised by Mark Twain as the Gilded Age. In response, Romney has painted Obama as a dangerous pseudo-socialist taking America on the path to ruin. But if, come 6 November, it is Romney who emerges victorious then neither he nor anyone else in his party will care. In Leesburg, Romney ended his speech with a rousing call to arms. "We are taking back America," he told the crowd. "America is coming back, we are going to have a real recovery." | If Romney does win, it will not have been pretty. The 2012 election has seen Obama launch one of the most negative campaigns in recent memory claiming Romney is a heartless plutocrat who wants to take America back to the post civil war era satirised by Mark Twain as the Gilded Age. In response, Romney has painted Obama as a dangerous pseudo-socialist taking America on the path to ruin. But if, come 6 November, it is Romney who emerges victorious then neither he nor anyone else in his party will care. In Leesburg, Romney ended his speech with a rousing call to arms. "We are taking back America," he told the crowd. "America is coming back, we are going to have a real recovery." |
| Watching the speech was estate agent Kim Levy, 38. She has been ignoring the polls in favour of a less scientific study of support. The local 7-11 convenience stores have been running a promotion whereby cups of soda feature a picture of Romney or Obama. "All the Romney cups are gone and all the Obama ones are still there, except maybe one. It's like that at all the 7-11s in Leesburg. All of them," she said with undisguised glee. | Watching the speech was estate agent Kim Levy, 38. She has been ignoring the polls in favour of a less scientific study of support. The local 7-11 convenience stores have been running a promotion whereby cups of soda feature a picture of Romney or Obama. "All the Romney cups are gone and all the Obama ones are still there, except maybe one. It's like that at all the 7-11s in Leesburg. All of them," she said with undisguised glee. |
| WHAT OBAMA MUST DO TO WIN FINAL DEBATE | WHAT OBAMA MUST DO TO WIN FINAL DEBATE |
| The presidential debates have sparked the 2012 contest into life. In the first, Obama's listless performance ignited a Romney recovery, then Obama came back in the second. Now the final meeting looms. To regain momentum Obama has to: | The presidential debates have sparked the 2012 contest into life. In the first, Obama's listless performance ignited a Romney recovery, then Obama came back in the second. Now the final meeting looms. To regain momentum Obama has to: |
| Remain energised. Obama cannot afford to sit back and relax. | Remain energised. Obama cannot afford to sit back and relax. |
| Go on the offensive. As president, he has a natural advantage in the debate's topic – foreign policy. | Go on the offensive. As president, he has a natural advantage in the debate's topic – foreign policy. |
| Mention the death of Osama bin Laden. Democrats have traditionally been seen as weaker on national security than Republicans. Obama has reversed that. | Mention the death of Osama bin Laden. Democrats have traditionally been seen as weaker on national security than Republicans. Obama has reversed that. |
| Rile Romney. Romney has a "glass jaw" in debates in his testiness and anger. Obama must make him lose his temper. | Rile Romney. Romney has a "glass jaw" in debates in his testiness and anger. Obama must make him lose his temper. |
| Keep calm himself. Nothing looks less presidential than losing one's cool, which Obama came close to in the second debate. | Keep calm himself. Nothing looks less presidential than losing one's cool, which Obama came close to in the second debate. |
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