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| South Korean Official Warns of ‘Existential Threat’ From North | South Korean Official Warns of ‘Existential Threat’ From North |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| SEOUL, South Korea — A senior South Korean policy maker on North Korea said on Friday that it must be assumed that the North has the capacity to mount a nuclear device on a ballistic missile, adding that such a capability would pose “an existential threat” to South Korea. | |
| The official, who spoke to a group of journalists on condition of anonymity, stressed that reliable information about the North’s capabilities is scarce, and he cautioned that he was not confirming that the North had built an operational nuclear weapon. But his comment, which was one of the most explicitly worded assessments of the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities by a senior official, reflected growing concern in the South Korean government that the North may have more advanced technology than previously believed. | |
| “We must assume that North Korea has already reached the stage” of “being able to mount a nuclear device on its ballistic missiles,” the official said. “If not, they are getting closer to that level.” | “We must assume that North Korea has already reached the stage” of “being able to mount a nuclear device on its ballistic missiles,” the official said. “If not, they are getting closer to that level.” |
| The official made the comment while explaining why South Korea and the United States had recently reached a deal under which South Korea will be allowed to nearly triple the range of its ballistic missiles, giving it the ability to strike all known North Korean missile sites. He said the South now had “less margin of error, because North Korean ballistic missiles tipped with a nuclear explosive would be an existential threat to us.” | |
| The missile agreement with the United States was announced Sunday. On Tuesday, the North claimed to have missiles that can reach the American mainland, and on Wednesday it said it felt freer to conduct long-range missile tests in light of the American-South Korean missile accord. | |
| The South Korean official said he could not verify the North’s recent claims, stressing the paucity of reliable information. “There is no such thing as a North Korea expert,” he said. “No one has enough information about North Korea.” But he said there was no doubt that the North was determined to develop the means to deliver a nuclear warhead. | |
| Since 1998, North Korea has launched several long-range rockets, which Washington and allies have considered a cover for testing long-range missile technology. They all exploded in midair or failed in their stated purpose of putting satellites into orbit, casting doubt on the North’s ability to deliver a payload on an intercontinental ballistic missile. | Since 1998, North Korea has launched several long-range rockets, which Washington and allies have considered a cover for testing long-range missile technology. They all exploded in midair or failed in their stated purpose of putting satellites into orbit, casting doubt on the North’s ability to deliver a payload on an intercontinental ballistic missile. |
| In a paper published by the RAND Corporation earlier this month, an analyst, Markus Schiller, said that there were strong indications that North Korea’s missiles served largely as “a bluff” to “create the impression of a serious missile threat and thereby gain strategic leverage, fortify the North Korean regime’s domestic power, and deter other countries.” | In a paper published by the RAND Corporation earlier this month, an analyst, Markus Schiller, said that there were strong indications that North Korea’s missiles served largely as “a bluff” to “create the impression of a serious missile threat and thereby gain strategic leverage, fortify the North Korean regime’s domestic power, and deter other countries.” |
| “It cannot be ruled out that North Korea has nuclear warhead designs for its missiles, but without actual testing, the reliability of these warheads has to be assumed to be low,” he wrote. “It seems likely that the North Korean missile threat is limited to the range of its Nodong missile,” roughly 1,000 kilometers. “Missiles beyond this range seem not to be operationally deployed or sufficiently reliable.” | “It cannot be ruled out that North Korea has nuclear warhead designs for its missiles, but without actual testing, the reliability of these warheads has to be assumed to be low,” he wrote. “It seems likely that the North Korean missile threat is limited to the range of its Nodong missile,” roughly 1,000 kilometers. “Missiles beyond this range seem not to be operationally deployed or sufficiently reliable.” |