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| As sanctions bite, Iran's supreme leader may finally have to learn to compromise | As sanctions bite, Iran's supreme leader may finally have to learn to compromise |
| (8 days later) | |
| In the final year of the Iran-Iraq war, Ayatollah Khomeini faced a dilemma: whether to bend to domestic and international pressure and accept a ceasefire or continue with the increasingly futile "holy defence" that was bringing heavy casualties. | In the final year of the Iran-Iraq war, Ayatollah Khomeini faced a dilemma: whether to bend to domestic and international pressure and accept a ceasefire or continue with the increasingly futile "holy defence" that was bringing heavy casualties. |
| By that stage, in 1988, most of the regime favoured peace but almost no one dared to admit it publicly. Opting for a ceasefire remained a "red line" in official discussions, and only one man could change that – the founder of the Islamic republic. | By that stage, in 1988, most of the regime favoured peace but almost no one dared to admit it publicly. Opting for a ceasefire remained a "red line" in official discussions, and only one man could change that – the founder of the Islamic republic. |
| In the end, Khomeini decided – in his own words – to "drink from a poisoned chalice" and face up to the unpalatable reality. By agreeing a UN-brokered truce, he put an end to the longest conventional war of the 20th century, which had left half a million dead on both sides. | In the end, Khomeini decided – in his own words – to "drink from a poisoned chalice" and face up to the unpalatable reality. By agreeing a UN-brokered truce, he put an end to the longest conventional war of the 20th century, which had left half a million dead on both sides. |
| In today's Iran, the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is caught in a similar situation. With the standoff over Tehran's nuclear programme causing discontent at home and fears of a major confrontation with the west, will Khamenei be prepared to compromise? | In today's Iran, the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is caught in a similar situation. With the standoff over Tehran's nuclear programme causing discontent at home and fears of a major confrontation with the west, will Khamenei be prepared to compromise? |
| Until recently, talk of western sanctions having an impact on the Iranian economy has been a "red line" for Khamenei. During his 23-year rule, he has remained adamant that sanctions have made his regime stronger and self-sufficient in many areas. Those officials who suggested, however quietly, that sanctions were making life more difficult were immediately attacked. Just last year, when the head of Iran's central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, referred to the extent of the financial crisis the country faced, Khamenei reacted by describing him, though implicitly, as a "bad decision-maker". | Until recently, talk of western sanctions having an impact on the Iranian economy has been a "red line" for Khamenei. During his 23-year rule, he has remained adamant that sanctions have made his regime stronger and self-sufficient in many areas. Those officials who suggested, however quietly, that sanctions were making life more difficult were immediately attacked. Just last year, when the head of Iran's central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, referred to the extent of the financial crisis the country faced, Khamenei reacted by describing him, though implicitly, as a "bad decision-maker". |
| Now, as sanctions compound the country's economic woes, that red line appears to be disappearing, with many officials, finding their leader's old rhetoric untenable, publicly expressing concerns about the country's crumbling economy. | Now, as sanctions compound the country's economic woes, that red line appears to be disappearing, with many officials, finding their leader's old rhetoric untenable, publicly expressing concerns about the country's crumbling economy. |
| This week, Khamenei was still confident that sanctions would not bring his regime to its knees. "Are we worse off or you [the west]? In the streets of major European countries there are demonstrations day and night … The problems of the west are much more complicated than ours," he told crowds gathering in the north-eastern city of Bojnourd. "The west's economy is frozen. You are worse off and you are moving towards collapse and recession." | This week, Khamenei was still confident that sanctions would not bring his regime to its knees. "Are we worse off or you [the west]? In the streets of major European countries there are demonstrations day and night … The problems of the west are much more complicated than ours," he told crowds gathering in the north-eastern city of Bojnourd. "The west's economy is frozen. You are worse off and you are moving towards collapse and recession." |
| Just as during the bad old years of war, although Iranian officials are currently wary of speaking against Khamenei's nuclear policy, there are increasing signs of frustration among top officials and regime supporters. Talk of sanctions is seen as an indirect criticism of Khamenei for his reluctance to compromise over Tehran's nuclear dossier. | Just as during the bad old years of war, although Iranian officials are currently wary of speaking against Khamenei's nuclear policy, there are increasing signs of frustration among top officials and regime supporters. Talk of sanctions is seen as an indirect criticism of Khamenei for his reluctance to compromise over Tehran's nuclear dossier. |
| Faced with unprecedented economic and political pressure, Khamenei might find it increasingly difficult to refuse to compromise. Last week, his official website ran an article that referred to Imam Hassan, a revered Shia figure famous for peace-making and compromise, triggering speculation that Khamenei might be ready to finally engage in serious negotiations. | Faced with unprecedented economic and political pressure, Khamenei might find it increasingly difficult to refuse to compromise. Last week, his official website ran an article that referred to Imam Hassan, a revered Shia figure famous for peace-making and compromise, triggering speculation that Khamenei might be ready to finally engage in serious negotiations. |
| Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking at a press conference last week after Iran's currency hit an all-time low, made clear that sanctions were taking their toll but at the same time claimed his government had done nothing wrong, implying that the current situation was the consequence of a policy out of the control of his government. | Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking at a press conference last week after Iran's currency hit an all-time low, made clear that sanctions were taking their toll but at the same time claimed his government had done nothing wrong, implying that the current situation was the consequence of a policy out of the control of his government. |
| Although Ahmadinejad is the public face of Tehran's regime, sensitive domestic and foreign policies, including that of the nuclear programme, are under the direct control of the supreme leader and his elite Revolutionary Guards. In his talks with the world's major powers, Saeed Jalili, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, has also made clear that he is the representative of the supreme leader. | Although Ahmadinejad is the public face of Tehran's regime, sensitive domestic and foreign policies, including that of the nuclear programme, are under the direct control of the supreme leader and his elite Revolutionary Guards. In his talks with the world's major powers, Saeed Jalili, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, has also made clear that he is the representative of the supreme leader. |
| Unlike Khamenei, Ahmadinejad appears to be in mood for compromise. During his visit to New York for UN general assembly last month, the president signalled at least five times that his country was willing to resume relations with the US, a suggestion roundly rebuffed by Khamenei's top aide in Tehran. | Unlike Khamenei, Ahmadinejad appears to be in mood for compromise. During his visit to New York for UN general assembly last month, the president signalled at least five times that his country was willing to resume relations with the US, a suggestion roundly rebuffed by Khamenei's top aide in Tehran. |
| Ahmadinejad is not alone in talking about sanctions. Last month, Mohammadreza Bahonar, the deputy head of the Iranian parliament, said Iran was only selling 800 barrels of oil per day mid-summer, in comparison to 2.3m bpd last year. The dollar is now worth three times the rial compared with early last year. Even the conservative media, sympathetic to the regime, devote significant coverage to the impact of sanctions on the country's economy. | Ahmadinejad is not alone in talking about sanctions. Last month, Mohammadreza Bahonar, the deputy head of the Iranian parliament, said Iran was only selling 800 barrels of oil per day mid-summer, in comparison to 2.3m bpd last year. The dollar is now worth three times the rial compared with early last year. Even the conservative media, sympathetic to the regime, devote significant coverage to the impact of sanctions on the country's economy. |
| In the wake of the economic hardship, Iranian officials are engaging in a blame game. In the meantime, Ahmadinejad risks becoming the scapegoat for the country's economic woes. In response to the internal rivalry, Khamenei called for unity and asked officials in parliament, the judiciary and other senior institutions, not to blame each other. | In the wake of the economic hardship, Iranian officials are engaging in a blame game. In the meantime, Ahmadinejad risks becoming the scapegoat for the country's economic woes. In response to the internal rivalry, Khamenei called for unity and asked officials in parliament, the judiciary and other senior institutions, not to blame each other. |
| Despite all this noise, any decision over Iran's nuclear programme rests with Khamenei who finds himself caught between two factions inside the regime, a small hawkish group pushing for more nuclear "advances" and a majority shy to show opposition. It emerged recently that an internal report by the Revolutionary Guards suggested that Iran needed only to resist "three more years" under sanctions to achieve its nuclear goals. | Despite all this noise, any decision over Iran's nuclear programme rests with Khamenei who finds himself caught between two factions inside the regime, a small hawkish group pushing for more nuclear "advances" and a majority shy to show opposition. It emerged recently that an internal report by the Revolutionary Guards suggested that Iran needed only to resist "three more years" under sanctions to achieve its nuclear goals. |
| In 2005, Khamenei resorted to issuing a fatwa to reassure the international community, without success, that his country was not making a nuclear bomb. Now he needs to make a far tougher decision. | In 2005, Khamenei resorted to issuing a fatwa to reassure the international community, without success, that his country was not making a nuclear bomb. Now he needs to make a far tougher decision. |
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