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| Romney and Obama curtail debate expectations ahead of first meeting | Romney and Obama curtail debate expectations ahead of first meeting |
| (4 months later) | |
| Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were gearing up on Sunday for three days of intense preparations for the first of the US presidential debates, which is almost certain to be the Republican candidate's last chance to turn around his struggling campaign. | Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were gearing up on Sunday for three days of intense preparations for the first of the US presidential debates, which is almost certain to be the Republican candidate's last chance to turn around his struggling campaign. |
| The 90-minute debate in Denver on Wednesday will be the first opportunity Americans will have to see the two candidates side by side and compare not only their policies but how they look and behave. The outcome could be decided by a hesitation in explaining a policy, a smart riposte or a display of arrogance. | The 90-minute debate in Denver on Wednesday will be the first opportunity Americans will have to see the two candidates side by side and compare not only their policies but how they look and behave. The outcome could be decided by a hesitation in explaining a policy, a smart riposte or a display of arrogance. |
| Each side took part in the usual ritual of talking up their opponent at the weekend in an attempt to dampen expectations. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, speaking on Fox News on Sunday, described Obama as "a very gifted speaker". Supporters of Obama claimed Romney had won nearly all of the debates during his gruelling nomination process. | Each side took part in the usual ritual of talking up their opponent at the weekend in an attempt to dampen expectations. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, speaking on Fox News on Sunday, described Obama as "a very gifted speaker". Supporters of Obama claimed Romney had won nearly all of the debates during his gruelling nomination process. |
| Estimates for the number of viewers in America range from 50 million to 60 million, almost double the number who watched the party conventions. There will be two additional debates, in Long Island and Florida, but it is the first that usually has the most impact. | Estimates for the number of viewers in America range from 50 million to 60 million, almost double the number who watched the party conventions. There will be two additional debates, in Long Island and Florida, but it is the first that usually has the most impact. |
| Obama, with significant poll leads in the swing states, can play defence, just getting through the evening without making a mistake. The onus is on Romney to make an impression. | Obama, with significant poll leads in the swing states, can play defence, just getting through the evening without making a mistake. The onus is on Romney to make an impression. |
| Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, acknowledged on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday that Romney would need to do well in the first debate. "You're going to have tens of millions of people for the first time really tuning in and paying attention to this race ... On Thursday morning the entire narrative of this race is going to change." | Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, acknowledged on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday that Romney would need to do well in the first debate. "You're going to have tens of millions of people for the first time really tuning in and paying attention to this race ... On Thursday morning the entire narrative of this race is going to change." |
| Both candidates were readying themselves for three days of intensive preparation. Obama, after a campaign event in Las Vegas on Sunday night, heads to Henderson half-an-hour's drive away for three days of preparation. Romney will also do three days of preparation, arriving in Denver Monday. | Both candidates were readying themselves for three days of intensive preparation. Obama, after a campaign event in Las Vegas on Sunday night, heads to Henderson half-an-hour's drive away for three days of preparation. Romney will also do three days of preparation, arriving in Denver Monday. |
| Do debates make a difference? | Do debates make a difference? |
| Some political analysts argue that the debates do not matter, usually ending inconclusively and quickly forgotten. Others point to debate moments over the last 52 years, since the first televised debate between Kennedy and Nixon, that have turned out to decisive. | Some political analysts argue that the debates do not matter, usually ending inconclusively and quickly forgotten. Others point to debate moments over the last 52 years, since the first televised debate between Kennedy and Nixon, that have turned out to decisive. |
| John McCain, failed Republican presidential candidate in 2008, who has debated with both Obama and Romney, did not anticipate any "breakthrough" moments, saying they they have become rarer in recent decades. | John McCain, failed Republican presidential candidate in 2008, who has debated with both Obama and Romney, did not anticipate any "breakthrough" moments, saying they they have become rarer in recent decades. |
| "I can't remember the last time there was one of these comments that grabbed everybody's attention because, frankly, the candidates are too well prepared," McCain told CNN on Sunday. | "I can't remember the last time there was one of these comments that grabbed everybody's attention because, frankly, the candidates are too well prepared," McCain told CNN on Sunday. |
| But debates can dramatically change a campaign. Hillary Clinton was a seemingly insurmountable 30 points ahead of Obama in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination until she hesitated when asked a question in a 2007 debate about illegal immigration. | But debates can dramatically change a campaign. Hillary Clinton was a seemingly insurmountable 30 points ahead of Obama in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination until she hesitated when asked a question in a 2007 debate about illegal immigration. |
| Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist involved in presidential campaigns from Mondale in 1984 through to Kerry in 2004, believes debates are important. He recalled Mondale jumped 23 points in a poll after having a good first debate with Reagan and that Gore lost a three to four point lead in 2000 after his debate with George W Bush. | Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist involved in presidential campaigns from Mondale in 1984 through to Kerry in 2004, believes debates are important. He recalled Mondale jumped 23 points in a poll after having a good first debate with Reagan and that Gore lost a three to four point lead in 2000 after his debate with George W Bush. |
| He argues it is possible for Romney to use the debate to mount a comeback. | He argues it is possible for Romney to use the debate to mount a comeback. |
| "Romney has got to get himself back into the race. He needs voters to have one more look at him and this is it," said Devine. | "Romney has got to get himself back into the race. He needs voters to have one more look at him and this is it," said Devine. |
| "If the Romney team are smart, they will not try to do it all in the first debate. They need to make up some ground and get people to like this guy a little. It is all about how he comports himself. If they are smart and he starts repairing his image, you can change a lot in 90 minutes." | "If the Romney team are smart, they will not try to do it all in the first debate. They need to make up some ground and get people to like this guy a little. It is all about how he comports himself. If they are smart and he starts repairing his image, you can change a lot in 90 minutes." |
| Preparations | Preparations |
| Romney's campaign team has long argued that the debates are pivotal and, because of that, the candidate has been rehearsing since at least August, locking himself away for mock-up debates with senator Rob Portman from Ohio standing in for Obama. | Romney's campaign team has long argued that the debates are pivotal and, because of that, the candidate has been rehearsing since at least August, locking himself away for mock-up debates with senator Rob Portman from Ohio standing in for Obama. |
| According to the Obama team, the president has had less time to prepare because of his White House duties, though he has occasionally taken time out for visits to the Democratic national committee's headquarters in Washington for debate sessions, with senator John Kerry standing in for Romney. | According to the Obama team, the president has had less time to prepare because of his White House duties, though he has occasionally taken time out for visits to the Democratic national committee's headquarters in Washington for debate sessions, with senator John Kerry standing in for Romney. |
| The preparations at the rival camps will be intensive, with soundbites rehearsed over and over again. They will prepare on replicas of the Denver stage, the rehearsals filmed and analysed. | The preparations at the rival camps will be intensive, with soundbites rehearsed over and over again. They will prepare on replicas of the Denver stage, the rehearsals filmed and analysed. |
| Obama, with a tendency for long answers, is being encouraged by staff to be snappier. One of his advisers, Jen Psaki, said last week: "The president is familiar with his own loquaciousness and his tendency to give long, substantive answers." | Obama, with a tendency for long answers, is being encouraged by staff to be snappier. One of his advisers, Jen Psaki, said last week: "The president is familiar with his own loquaciousness and his tendency to give long, substantive answers." |
| The relentless preparations include appearance as well as policy, with ties and suits chosen to avoid blending in with the stage backdrop. | The relentless preparations include appearance as well as policy, with ties and suits chosen to avoid blending in with the stage backdrop. |
| Devine remembers that, in spite of all the detailed preparations for one Gore-Bush debate, one of the problems was a failure to check how Gore's make-up would look on camera. Viewers complained he looked "too orangey". | Devine remembers that, in spite of all the detailed preparations for one Gore-Bush debate, one of the problems was a failure to check how Gore's make-up would look on camera. Viewers complained he looked "too orangey". |
| Expectations | Expectations |
| It has become commonplace that, ahead of the debates, the two camps talk up the opposing candidate in an effort to lower expectations. Romney supporters talk up Obama's oratorical skills, while the president's campaign has been claiming that Romney has had a great deal of practice at debates during his nomination process. | It has become commonplace that, ahead of the debates, the two camps talk up the opposing candidate in an effort to lower expectations. Romney supporters talk up Obama's oratorical skills, while the president's campaign has been claiming that Romney has had a great deal of practice at debates during his nomination process. |
| In reality, neither candidate is a great debater. Often forgotten is that Obama, while one of the best orators in the US, performed poorly at debates during the during Democratic primaries and caucuses before the 2008 election, though he improved towards the end. The White House spokesman, Jay Carney, at the time a reporter, admitted last week that Obama had become the nominee in 2008 "in spite of his debate performances". | In reality, neither candidate is a great debater. Often forgotten is that Obama, while one of the best orators in the US, performed poorly at debates during the during Democratic primaries and caucuses before the 2008 election, though he improved towards the end. The White House spokesman, Jay Carney, at the time a reporter, admitted last week that Obama had become the nominee in 2008 "in spite of his debate performances". |
| Romney tends to be a poor debater too but has produced occasional good performances when he has had to, particularly against Republican rival Newt Gingrich in Florida earlier this year. | Romney tends to be a poor debater too but has produced occasional good performances when he has had to, particularly against Republican rival Newt Gingrich in Florida earlier this year. |
| It will be completely different after the debate, with both teams fielding supporters in the spin-room to talk up their candidates. | It will be completely different after the debate, with both teams fielding supporters in the spin-room to talk up their candidates. |
| Issues | Issues |
| One of the big issues on Wednesday night will be the secret video of Romney's speech at a May fundraiser in Florida in which he dismissed 47% of Americans as freeloaders. Obama will seek to exploit this to the fullest while Romney has to try to explain it away. | One of the big issues on Wednesday night will be the secret video of Romney's speech at a May fundraiser in Florida in which he dismissed 47% of Americans as freeloaders. Obama will seek to exploit this to the fullest while Romney has to try to explain it away. |
| Romney's success against Gingrich in debate was attributed at the time to his debate coach, Brett O'Donnell, who subsequently left his staff. O'Donnell, in an interview with the Associated Press last week, said Romney has to try to confront the 47% remark. "He has to turn the 47% and make sure people understand the reasoning behind that argument, how that's the result of the president's policies." | Romney's success against Gingrich in debate was attributed at the time to his debate coach, Brett O'Donnell, who subsequently left his staff. O'Donnell, in an interview with the Associated Press last week, said Romney has to try to confront the 47% remark. "He has to turn the 47% and make sure people understand the reasoning behind that argument, how that's the result of the president's policies." |
| The dominant issue will be the slow economic recovery, from an unemployment rate over 8% to the burgeoning deficit and taxation. Other issues will be healthcare reform, immigration and women's rights. Foreign policy is not on the agenda until the final debate. | The dominant issue will be the slow economic recovery, from an unemployment rate over 8% to the burgeoning deficit and taxation. Other issues will be healthcare reform, immigration and women's rights. Foreign policy is not on the agenda until the final debate. |
| Debates that made a difference | Debates that made a difference |
| The first televised debate between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960 cost the Republican the election. Kennedy looked better on television while Nixon appeared unshaven and ill at ease. | The first televised debate between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960 cost the Republican the election. Kennedy looked better on television while Nixon appeared unshaven and ill at ease. |
| There was a long gap in debates until they resumed in 1976. In 1980, Reagan won a debate and the election with the question "Ask yourself, 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago?'" | There was a long gap in debates until they resumed in 1976. In 1980, Reagan won a debate and the election with the question "Ask yourself, 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago?'" |
| Gore came off second best in a debate with Bush in 2000. Devine recalled that the Gore team thought it had won but the Bush campaign successfully spun to the press that Gore had looked arrogant, sighing repeatedly throughout the debate and rolling is eyes. The spin worked. | Gore came off second best in a debate with Bush in 2000. Devine recalled that the Gore team thought it had won but the Bush campaign successfully spun to the press that Gore had looked arrogant, sighing repeatedly throughout the debate and rolling is eyes. The spin worked. |
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