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| Democrats and the 'better off' question: time to say it loud and proud | Democrats and the 'better off' question: time to say it loud and proud |
| (8 days later) | |
| Stephanie Cutter, the Obama campaign's deputy director, was the unlucky sacrifice chosen to walk into a political minefield today: matching the Obama campaign's political aims with the reality of the sluggish American economy. | Stephanie Cutter, the Obama campaign's deputy director, was the unlucky sacrifice chosen to walk into a political minefield today: matching the Obama campaign's political aims with the reality of the sluggish American economy. |
| Asked "are we better off today than we were four years ago, when President Obama was elected?" on the Today show, Cutter replied confidently: "Absolutely." It wasn't so much the answer as the alacrity with which Cutter gave it: like an intern being offered a happy-hour martini. | Asked "are we better off today than we were four years ago, when President Obama was elected?" on the Today show, Cutter replied confidently: "Absolutely." It wasn't so much the answer as the alacrity with which Cutter gave it: like an intern being offered a happy-hour martini. |
| Although she also proffered a series of justifications – Cutter said the economic recovery "might not be as fast as people hoped, and the president agrees" – the Republicans were quick to pounce on Cutter's remarks, brandishing them as evidence of the Obama campaign's failure to grasp the realities of high unemployment and sluggish growth. | Although she also proffered a series of justifications – Cutter said the economic recovery "might not be as fast as people hoped, and the president agrees" – the Republicans were quick to pounce on Cutter's remarks, brandishing them as evidence of the Obama campaign's failure to grasp the realities of high unemployment and sluggish growth. |
| For Cutter and the rest of the Obama campaign, there's a compelling need to go out on a limb and say yes, things are better than they were, even if that makes them an easy target for the Romney campaign. It helps that there's some economic and financial justification for the "absolutely" claim, but it's the political angle that means they have to take a hit now to try and avoid the fate of George Bush Sr in 1992 or Jimmy Carter in 1980. | For Cutter and the rest of the Obama campaign, there's a compelling need to go out on a limb and say yes, things are better than they were, even if that makes them an easy target for the Romney campaign. It helps that there's some economic and financial justification for the "absolutely" claim, but it's the political angle that means they have to take a hit now to try and avoid the fate of George Bush Sr in 1992 or Jimmy Carter in 1980. |
| Ronald Reagan's winning 1980 campaign asked a simple question of voters: were they better off than they were four years ago? The Obama campaign is desperate not to be caught in the same trap – even if it hasn't yet figured out how to avoid it. | Ronald Reagan's winning 1980 campaign asked a simple question of voters: were they better off than they were four years ago? The Obama campaign is desperate not to be caught in the same trap – even if it hasn't yet figured out how to avoid it. |
| On the political talk shows over the weekend, a string of Democrats hummed and hawed when confronted with the question, which we shall call AYBONTYWFYA – not a village in Wales where Ann Romney's family emigrated from, but the handy "Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago?" By Monday a decision had been taken that the campaign needed to be more robust in answering AYBONTYWFYA. | On the political talk shows over the weekend, a string of Democrats hummed and hawed when confronted with the question, which we shall call AYBONTYWFYA – not a village in Wales where Ann Romney's family emigrated from, but the handy "Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago?" By Monday a decision had been taken that the campaign needed to be more robust in answering AYBONTYWFYA. |
| Cutter was the first out of the blocks to hurdle AYBONTYWFYA – and she was followed by Joe Biden, who told a crowd at a campaign stop: "America is better off today than when [the Republicans] left." | Cutter was the first out of the blocks to hurdle AYBONTYWFYA – and she was followed by Joe Biden, who told a crowd at a campaign stop: "America is better off today than when [the Republicans] left." |
| The way out of the Reagan trap for Democrats, though, is to say yes to AYBONTYWFYA [pronounced eye-bonty-wifya] and point to a compelling economic statistic to back it up. Maryland governor Martin O'Malley showed the way in telling CNN: "We are clearly better off as a country, because we are now creating jobs rather than losing jobs." | The way out of the Reagan trap for Democrats, though, is to say yes to AYBONTYWFYA [pronounced eye-bonty-wifya] and point to a compelling economic statistic to back it up. Maryland governor Martin O'Malley showed the way in telling CNN: "We are clearly better off as a country, because we are now creating jobs rather than losing jobs." |
| Republicans, though, continue to faint in mock horror, reeling off a long list of statistics that suggest otherwise. Yet there is much truth in the Democrats saying yes. | Republicans, though, continue to faint in mock horror, reeling off a long list of statistics that suggest otherwise. Yet there is much truth in the Democrats saying yes. |
| Almost exactly four years ago, the US – not to mention the global financial system – was in a crisis unparalleled in modern times. By 3 September 2008, Lehmann Brothers – then the fourth largest US investment bank – was stuttering towards its eventual bankruptcy on 15 September. Bear Stearns had already gone under, Merrill Lynch sold itself off cheap, the insurance giant AIG was soon to sink into disaster. The credit market was frozen. The US auto industry was close to a coma. The housing market was in a Snow White-like sleep after feasting on the poisoned apple of sub-prime mortgages. | Almost exactly four years ago, the US – not to mention the global financial system – was in a crisis unparalleled in modern times. By 3 September 2008, Lehmann Brothers – then the fourth largest US investment bank – was stuttering towards its eventual bankruptcy on 15 September. Bear Stearns had already gone under, Merrill Lynch sold itself off cheap, the insurance giant AIG was soon to sink into disaster. The credit market was frozen. The US auto industry was close to a coma. The housing market was in a Snow White-like sleep after feasting on the poisoned apple of sub-prime mortgages. |
| It is a truth beyond doubt that the current state of the US economy and financial system is far, far removed from that era of fear. It is recovering, although that recovery is by no means complete, for reasons that people can argue over. Unemployment remains high, although the labour market is largely a lagging indicator of economic activity, which is all too sluggish. | It is a truth beyond doubt that the current state of the US economy and financial system is far, far removed from that era of fear. It is recovering, although that recovery is by no means complete, for reasons that people can argue over. Unemployment remains high, although the labour market is largely a lagging indicator of economic activity, which is all too sluggish. |
| Barack Obama's bad luck was to take office just as the worst after-effects of the economic recession hit. In the UK, the Cameron government was far luckier, because of the later UK election cycle. That's why Republicans are careful to try and push Obama's election as far back into the popular memory as they can – hence Paul Ryan blaming Obama for a car plant slated to be closed before he even took office. | Barack Obama's bad luck was to take office just as the worst after-effects of the economic recession hit. In the UK, the Cameron government was far luckier, because of the later UK election cycle. That's why Republicans are careful to try and push Obama's election as far back into the popular memory as they can – hence Paul Ryan blaming Obama for a car plant slated to be closed before he even took office. |
| The Republicans of course want to have it both ways: complaining that Obama is blaming everything on the Republican administration of four years ago, and then harking back four years with AYBONTYWFYA. That's called having your cake and eating it too. | The Republicans of course want to have it both ways: complaining that Obama is blaming everything on the Republican administration of four years ago, and then harking back four years with AYBONTYWFYA. That's called having your cake and eating it too. |
| There's always a legitimate debate to be had on the direction of the economy, but it is not on the brink of an abyss, nor is it time to deny history. | There's always a legitimate debate to be had on the direction of the economy, but it is not on the brink of an abyss, nor is it time to deny history. |
| Note: It was Snow White, not Cinderella, who ate the poisoned apple. Thanks to those who pointed it out, especially @CapnMcGruff via Twitter | Note: It was Snow White, not Cinderella, who ate the poisoned apple. Thanks to those who pointed it out, especially @CapnMcGruff via Twitter |
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