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Key UK economic growth figures face revision | Key UK economic growth figures face revision |
(about 2 hours later) | |
The real depth of the UK recession will be revealed later when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases its revised figures for April to June. | The real depth of the UK recession will be revealed later when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases its revised figures for April to June. |
Financial markets and industry are awaiting the second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). | Financial markets and industry are awaiting the second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). |
Last month the ONS said the economy had shrunk by 0.7% - a much deeper downturn than expected. | Last month the ONS said the economy had shrunk by 0.7% - a much deeper downturn than expected. |
There are indications those figures may have been too pessimistic, with some experts predicting a revision to 0.5%. | There are indications those figures may have been too pessimistic, with some experts predicting a revision to 0.5%. |
GDP figures show the value of all the goods and services produced in the economy. | GDP figures show the value of all the goods and services produced in the economy. |
That 0.7% contraction figure, published in July, was greeted with some scepticism by a number of experts and by some industries that claimed they had seen little sign of such a serious economic downturn. | That 0.7% contraction figure, published in July, was greeted with some scepticism by a number of experts and by some industries that claimed they had seen little sign of such a serious economic downturn. |
It also seemed to be at odds with the unemployment rate which continues to fall. | It also seemed to be at odds with the unemployment rate which continues to fall. |
The original figures from the ONS suggested that weak output figures in the industrial and construction sectors had been compounded by an extra public holiday during the period. | The original figures from the ONS suggested that weak output figures in the industrial and construction sectors had been compounded by an extra public holiday during the period. |
However, revised ONS figures for the construction industry now show that although output fell in the second quarter, the drop was less than expected. | However, revised ONS figures for the construction industry now show that although output fell in the second quarter, the drop was less than expected. |
Output from the sector fell by 3.9% between April and June from the previous quarter, compared with an earlier forecast of a 5.2% drop. | Output from the sector fell by 3.9% between April and June from the previous quarter, compared with an earlier forecast of a 5.2% drop. |
The ONS always refines its GDP calculations as better data becomes available and changes to the original estimates happen on a regular basis. | The ONS always refines its GDP calculations as better data becomes available and changes to the original estimates happen on a regular basis. |
Any GDP revision is only likely to show that the recession is not as deep as first feared. | Any GDP revision is only likely to show that the recession is not as deep as first feared. |
Some economists think the figure will be revised up to show a 0.5% quarterly contraction. | Some economists think the figure will be revised up to show a 0.5% quarterly contraction. |
"A 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point upward revision to a very negative GDP number, or no revision, I don't think would do very much [to the market]," said Francis Diamond of JP Morgan. | "A 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point upward revision to a very negative GDP number, or no revision, I don't think would do very much [to the market]," said Francis Diamond of JP Morgan. |
What is your experience of the economy? Do the GDP figures reflect your own experience? You can send us your comments using the form below. |
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