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| Paul Ryan's Florida campaign trip puts focus on controversial Medicare plan | Paul Ryan's Florida campaign trip puts focus on controversial Medicare plan |
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| When Paul Ryan arrives in Tampa Bay on his first visit as the newly announced junior half of Mitt Romney's White House ticket this weekend, he will feel the heat. But it won't be anything to do with Florida's blistering summer temperatures. | When Paul Ryan arrives in Tampa Bay on his first visit as the newly announced junior half of Mitt Romney's White House ticket this weekend, he will feel the heat. But it won't be anything to do with Florida's blistering summer temperatures. |
| Instead, he faces a barrage of awkward questions over his much-publicised and controversial plans for the future of the nation's healthcare programme for retirees, and demands for proof from many among the state's 3 million plus seniors that he is not, in fact, the Republican Party's devil in disguise. | Instead, he faces a barrage of awkward questions over his much-publicised and controversial plans for the future of the nation's healthcare programme for retirees, and demands for proof from many among the state's 3 million plus seniors that he is not, in fact, the Republican Party's devil in disguise. |
| Since Romney tapped the Wisconsin congressman last Saturday as his running mate for November's presidential election, the political debate in Florida over the nomination has centered on one issue – Medicare. | Since Romney tapped the Wisconsin congressman last Saturday as his running mate for November's presidential election, the political debate in Florida over the nomination has centered on one issue – Medicare. |
| To many, Ryan is one of two things: the conservative architect of a budget-slashing master plan that will effectively kill off the existing system and leave the elderly carrying the can for the cost of their own healthcare; or the brilliant tactician behind an overdue and enduring reconstruction of the popular social welfare programme that has the additional benefit of helping reduce the burgeoning national debt. | To many, Ryan is one of two things: the conservative architect of a budget-slashing master plan that will effectively kill off the existing system and leave the elderly carrying the can for the cost of their own healthcare; or the brilliant tactician behind an overdue and enduring reconstruction of the popular social welfare programme that has the additional benefit of helping reduce the burgeoning national debt. |
| Whoever you believe, his comments at a $2,500-a-head Republican fundraiser on Treasure Island, near Tampa, on Saturday, and at a rally for supporters in the Villages, a sprawling complex for well-heeled retireees 100 miles to the north, earlier in the day, could define the race for Florida's 29 electoral college votes and determine whether he helps Romney's chances in the state or hinders them. | Whoever you believe, his comments at a $2,500-a-head Republican fundraiser on Treasure Island, near Tampa, on Saturday, and at a rally for supporters in the Villages, a sprawling complex for well-heeled retireees 100 miles to the north, earlier in the day, could define the race for Florida's 29 electoral college votes and determine whether he helps Romney's chances in the state or hinders them. |
| "Any talk of changing Medicare or making cutbacks is a scary thing for seniors in Florida and for those approaching retirement age. It'll be up to Ryan and Romney to respond to those attacks and repeat their message over and over," said Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida and a co-author of the book Politics in Florida. | "Any talk of changing Medicare or making cutbacks is a scary thing for seniors in Florida and for those approaching retirement age. It'll be up to Ryan and Romney to respond to those attacks and repeat their message over and over," said Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida and a co-author of the book Politics in Florida. |
| Jewett points out that John McCain, the losing Republican candidate in the 2008 general election, scored a significantly higher share of the vote from Florida seniors than Barack Obama and that Romney starts off with a solid core of support. | Jewett points out that John McCain, the losing Republican candidate in the 2008 general election, scored a significantly higher share of the vote from Florida seniors than Barack Obama and that Romney starts off with a solid core of support. |
| "One of the pluses [of the Ryan pick] is it will help the conservative base rally more enthusiasm about him than Romney. In that sense the base was always going to turn out for Romney, not because they like him, but Ryan can help motivate that base." | "One of the pluses [of the Ryan pick] is it will help the conservative base rally more enthusiasm about him than Romney. In that sense the base was always going to turn out for Romney, not because they like him, but Ryan can help motivate that base." |
| With more than 3.3 million voters over 65, and senior citizens making up 17.3% of its population according to the 2010 census, Florida has an older electorate than any other state. In fact, more than half its registered voters are over 50 so it was inevitable that the candidates' policies on healthcare would become a central plank of the election debate. | With more than 3.3 million voters over 65, and senior citizens making up 17.3% of its population according to the 2010 census, Florida has an older electorate than any other state. In fact, more than half its registered voters are over 50 so it was inevitable that the candidates' policies on healthcare would become a central plank of the election debate. |
| A survey this month by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) showed that 48% of respondents aged 50 to 64 and nearing retirement worried about unaffordable health expenses and that 63% said they felt neither Obama nor Romney had made a good job of explaining their plans for Medicare. | A survey this month by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) showed that 48% of respondents aged 50 to 64 and nearing retirement worried about unaffordable health expenses and that 63% said they felt neither Obama nor Romney had made a good job of explaining their plans for Medicare. |
| "The message from voters 50-plus is clear," said Nancy LeaMond, executive vice-president of the AARP, in a statement. "In a razor-tight election, candidates have a major opportunity to reach key voters by speaking about their plans on Social Security and Medicare, and they are making a huge gamble if they ignore them." | "The message from voters 50-plus is clear," said Nancy LeaMond, executive vice-president of the AARP, in a statement. "In a razor-tight election, candidates have a major opportunity to reach key voters by speaking about their plans on Social Security and Medicare, and they are making a huge gamble if they ignore them." |
| Senior Florida Democrats wasted little time after Saturday's announcement in attacking Ryan over his "Path to Prosperity" budget, particularly his plan for a gradual conversion of Medicare from a costly federal programme into a voucher-based private system. | Senior Florida Democrats wasted little time after Saturday's announcement in attacking Ryan over his "Path to Prosperity" budget, particularly his plan for a gradual conversion of Medicare from a costly federal programme into a voucher-based private system. |
| "Ryan is the architect of Romney's extreme budget plan which would end Medicare as we know it, increasing the healthcare costs for Florida's seniors by thousands every year," said Rod Smith, chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. | "Ryan is the architect of Romney's extreme budget plan which would end Medicare as we know it, increasing the healthcare costs for Florida's seniors by thousands every year," said Rod Smith, chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. |
| "Romney and Ryan share a vision for America where the wealthiest few are prioritised over the middle class, students and seniors. That's not a vision which will move our state or country forward, and it is a vision which Floridians will wholeheartedly reject." | "Romney and Ryan share a vision for America where the wealthiest few are prioritised over the middle class, students and seniors. That's not a vision which will move our state or country forward, and it is a vision which Floridians will wholeheartedly reject." |
| Smith's views cut little ice with Irving Rabiner, a 69-year-old retired retail worker from Delray Beach and a registered Republican voter who believes Ryan was the perfect choice. "Some of the old people started getting scared by the Democrats' lies, that their money will be taken away from them," he said. "What they need to do is sit down and look at what this really says, that nobody over 55 will have anything done to their Medicare. Attacking Ryan and Romney over this is the only chance the Democrats have got, they can't muster anything else other than attacking Romney for that fake banking stuff." | Smith's views cut little ice with Irving Rabiner, a 69-year-old retired retail worker from Delray Beach and a registered Republican voter who believes Ryan was the perfect choice. "Some of the old people started getting scared by the Democrats' lies, that their money will be taken away from them," he said. "What they need to do is sit down and look at what this really says, that nobody over 55 will have anything done to their Medicare. Attacking Ryan and Romney over this is the only chance the Democrats have got, they can't muster anything else other than attacking Romney for that fake banking stuff." |
| Republican strategists, too, are convinced that Ryan can handle any attack directed at him from Obama supporters in Florida, where his mother was revealed this week to be a condo-dwelling resident on Medicare in the small oceanfront town of Lauderdale-by-the Sea. "If he pushes back as he has done, and as he is uniquely qualified to do, then Medicare quickly collapses as an argument for them," said Rick Wilson, a Tallahassee-based political consultant. | Republican strategists, too, are convinced that Ryan can handle any attack directed at him from Obama supporters in Florida, where his mother was revealed this week to be a condo-dwelling resident on Medicare in the small oceanfront town of Lauderdale-by-the Sea. "If he pushes back as he has done, and as he is uniquely qualified to do, then Medicare quickly collapses as an argument for them," said Rick Wilson, a Tallahassee-based political consultant. |
| "Ryan is a young, articulate, smart conservative. He's going to be down here a lot, and there is no fear over putting him in front of a room full of seniors. Florida's seniors are concerned over Obamacare, they don't like it and it's never polled well, and over 58% opposed it. So this is not a conversation being held in a vacuum. There are other issues. Economic concerns drive voter behaviour." | "Ryan is a young, articulate, smart conservative. He's going to be down here a lot, and there is no fear over putting him in front of a room full of seniors. Florida's seniors are concerned over Obamacare, they don't like it and it's never polled well, and over 58% opposed it. So this is not a conversation being held in a vacuum. There are other issues. Economic concerns drive voter behaviour." |
| Among the other issues to have gained headlines in Florida since Ryan's nomination was his stance on Cuba, and his support a decade ago for the lifting of the US trade embargo with the communist country. | Among the other issues to have gained headlines in Florida since Ryan's nomination was his stance on Cuba, and his support a decade ago for the lifting of the US trade embargo with the communist country. |
| More than 70% of Miami's registered Republican voters are Cuban-American and most favour the embargo, so Romney, in the city earlier this week, sought to assure them that Ryan changed his views many years ago and voted in 2007 for maintaining restrictions. | More than 70% of Miami's registered Republican voters are Cuban-American and most favour the embargo, so Romney, in the city earlier this week, sought to assure them that Ryan changed his views many years ago and voted in 2007 for maintaining restrictions. |
| "A lot has been made of that," said Dan Smith, professor of political science at the University of Florida. "The Obama campaign will choose Ryan's comments from as late as 2009 saying we should open trade with Cuba, and will be running Spanish-language ads in south Florida to soften support for Romney. | "A lot has been made of that," said Dan Smith, professor of political science at the University of Florida. "The Obama campaign will choose Ryan's comments from as late as 2009 saying we should open trade with Cuba, and will be running Spanish-language ads in south Florida to soften support for Romney. |
| "Younger Cuban-Americans don't see the embargo as importantly as their parents or grandparents, and Romney will be making efforts to court those younger voters." | "Younger Cuban-Americans don't see the embargo as importantly as their parents or grandparents, and Romney will be making efforts to court those younger voters." |
| Smith added that another factor in Florida voters' minds will be that state's unemployment and foreclosure rates remain among the highest in the nation. "It's still the economy driving the Florida narrative but the Ryan budget helped to change that narrative," he said. | Smith added that another factor in Florida voters' minds will be that state's unemployment and foreclosure rates remain among the highest in the nation. "It's still the economy driving the Florida narrative but the Ryan budget helped to change that narrative," he said. |
| Jewett, the University of Central Florida analyst, agrees. "The polls in Florida are very close and I would expect it to stay that way," he said. "In the long term, the focus won't be on Ryan so much, but you can be sure the Democrats will be bringing up the Ryan plan over and over." | Jewett, the University of Central Florida analyst, agrees. "The polls in Florida are very close and I would expect it to stay that way," he said. "In the long term, the focus won't be on Ryan so much, but you can be sure the Democrats will be bringing up the Ryan plan over and over." |
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