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| Sobering financial future for students about to join English universities | Sobering financial future for students about to join English universities |
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| Britain's coalition government was built on a broken promise. The Liberal Democrats had pledged before the 2010 elections to scrap tuition fees. But the agreement on which the coalition is based says only that Lib Dem MPs could abstain from a vote on raising fees - opening the path to a vote in the House of Commons that allowed the tripling of university fees. | Britain's coalition government was built on a broken promise. The Liberal Democrats had pledged before the 2010 elections to scrap tuition fees. But the agreement on which the coalition is based says only that Lib Dem MPs could abstain from a vote on raising fees - opening the path to a vote in the House of Commons that allowed the tripling of university fees. |
| The upshot is that this autumn, tens of thousands of students starting at English universities face a sobering financial proposition. Tuition fees, capped at a little over £3,000 since 2003, will suddenly triple in many higher education establishments. | The upshot is that this autumn, tens of thousands of students starting at English universities face a sobering financial proposition. Tuition fees, capped at a little over £3,000 since 2003, will suddenly triple in many higher education establishments. |
| Universities argued that they had to charge as much as £9,000 per student per year to balance their books. Student groups warned that saddling young people with £27,000 of debt would deter the poorer candidates. | Universities argued that they had to charge as much as £9,000 per student per year to balance their books. Student groups warned that saddling young people with £27,000 of debt would deter the poorer candidates. |
| However, fears that school-leavers would be put off a university education have not been borne out, indicating that many young people still reckon that the opportunities offered by a university education are worth a five-figure sum. | However, fears that school-leavers would be put off a university education have not been borne out, indicating that many young people still reckon that the opportunities offered by a university education are worth a five-figure sum. |
| The number of UK university applicants for this autumn has dropped by 9% compared with last year – but the decrease in teenage candidates was much less sharp. | The number of UK university applicants for this autumn has dropped by 9% compared with last year – but the decrease in teenage candidates was much less sharp. |
| The number of 18-year-old UK applicants – the largest single group of candidates – has decreased by 2.6%, representing a drop of just under 7,000 people, according to figures published in April. The number of 18-year-olds in the population has declined by 11,000 this year, to 772,000, according to the Office for National Statistics, a fall of 1.4%. | The number of 18-year-old UK applicants – the largest single group of candidates – has decreased by 2.6%, representing a drop of just under 7,000 people, according to figures published in April. The number of 18-year-olds in the population has declined by 11,000 this year, to 772,000, according to the Office for National Statistics, a fall of 1.4%. |
| Unexpectedly, the application figures also reveal a sharper drop among more affluent candidates than among those from disadvantaged backgrounds. | Unexpectedly, the application figures also reveal a sharper drop among more affluent candidates than among those from disadvantaged backgrounds. |
| The application rate from the most disadvantaged fifth of the population was down 0.2% in England, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service said in an analysis published in January. Among the wealthiest quintile, it is down 2.5%. This analysis is based on a ranking of neighbourhoods according to the participation of young people in higher education. | The application rate from the most disadvantaged fifth of the population was down 0.2% in England, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service said in an analysis published in January. Among the wealthiest quintile, it is down 2.5%. This analysis is based on a ranking of neighbourhoods according to the participation of young people in higher education. |
| Not every university has charged the maximum fee, but students do not appear to be flocking towards "cheaper" universities. When application figures are compared with fee levels, institutions charging higher fees have not seen disproportionate falls in applications. | Not every university has charged the maximum fee, but students do not appear to be flocking towards "cheaper" universities. When application figures are compared with fee levels, institutions charging higher fees have not seen disproportionate falls in applications. |
| The latest application figures show a drop in applicants from the rest of the EU, down from around 45,000 last year to about 39,000 for this September. But UK universities remain popular with candidates from the rest of the world, and there are big rises in applications from Hong Kong, Malaysia and other east Asian countries. | The latest application figures show a drop in applicants from the rest of the EU, down from around 45,000 last year to about 39,000 for this September. But UK universities remain popular with candidates from the rest of the world, and there are big rises in applications from Hong Kong, Malaysia and other east Asian countries. |
| Unlike British and other EU students, there is no cap on fees for overseas students. | Unlike British and other EU students, there is no cap on fees for overseas students. |
| Figures from Ucas, the body that channels applications to universities, also showed sharp falls in applications to study for some subjects including creative arts, architecture and mass communications. | |
| The coalition government is slashing its direct funding to universities for teaching. But the shortfall will be made up by the increase in fees. Overall, increased fees will mean more state funding flows to universities, but a greater share will come from students. | The coalition government is slashing its direct funding to universities for teaching. But the shortfall will be made up by the increase in fees. Overall, increased fees will mean more state funding flows to universities, but a greater share will come from students. |
| Even charging the maximum fee of £9,000 does not necessarily mean universities can balance their books, however. | Even charging the maximum fee of £9,000 does not necessarily mean universities can balance their books, however. |
| The model of one-to-one tuition provided at the most competitive universities is expensive. Cambridge estimates the average annual cost of undergraduate teaching at more than £17,000 per student. To make up the gap, the university draws on its endowment income and donations. The Russell Group of universities, which includes Oxford and Cambridge, say their preference would have been for a complete lifting of the cap on fees. | The model of one-to-one tuition provided at the most competitive universities is expensive. Cambridge estimates the average annual cost of undergraduate teaching at more than £17,000 per student. To make up the gap, the university draws on its endowment income and donations. The Russell Group of universities, which includes Oxford and Cambridge, say their preference would have been for a complete lifting of the cap on fees. |
| Overall, universities in Britain remain a sellers' market. Demand from candidates massively outstrips the supply of government-funded places. A total of 492,000 candidates were accepted on to courses at UK universities in September 2011. So far this year, there have been more than 586,000 applicants. | Overall, universities in Britain remain a sellers' market. Demand from candidates massively outstrips the supply of government-funded places. A total of 492,000 candidates were accepted on to courses at UK universities in September 2011. So far this year, there have been more than 586,000 applicants. |
| But the government has also introduced changes this year which will lead to greater competition between universities for students. These changes are complex, and have attracted little attention, but they are potentially far-reaching. | But the government has also introduced changes this year which will lead to greater competition between universities for students. These changes are complex, and have attracted little attention, but they are potentially far-reaching. |
| Until now, the number of students each institution could recruit has been fixed. This meant that successful universities could not expand easily, while poorly performing ones could not shrink. Now the coalition is allowing universities to recruit unlimited numbers of students getting A-level grades of AAB or higher. | Until now, the number of students each institution could recruit has been fixed. This meant that successful universities could not expand easily, while poorly performing ones could not shrink. Now the coalition is allowing universities to recruit unlimited numbers of students getting A-level grades of AAB or higher. |
| Meanwhile, a total of 20,000 places have also been stripped from higher education institutions in England and auctioned off to universities and colleges charging average fees of £7,500 or less. This creates a squeeze at both ends. | Meanwhile, a total of 20,000 places have also been stripped from higher education institutions in England and auctioned off to universities and colleges charging average fees of £7,500 or less. This creates a squeeze at both ends. |
| According to one analysis, a "squeezed middle" of 34 English universities is expected to suffer sharp falls in student numbers this autumn because they neither attract the highest performing candidates nor offer the lowest fees. | According to one analysis, a "squeezed middle" of 34 English universities is expected to suffer sharp falls in student numbers this autumn because they neither attract the highest performing candidates nor offer the lowest fees. |
| The universities – including Bedfordshire, the University of Central Lancashire, Leeds Met and Sheffield Hallam – are expected to suffer drops of more than 10% in undergraduate student numbers for this year. | The universities – including Bedfordshire, the University of Central Lancashire, Leeds Met and Sheffield Hallam – are expected to suffer drops of more than 10% in undergraduate student numbers for this year. |
| Such universities may be able to weather this by charging higher fees to fewer students. But, for the first time, there is a long-term risk that some English universities will end up struggling to survive. | Such universities may be able to weather this by charging higher fees to fewer students. But, for the first time, there is a long-term risk that some English universities will end up struggling to survive. |
| • This article was amended on 1 June 2012 because the original said Ucas is a government body. Ucas is owned by the higher education sector. This has been corrected. |