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Labour plays down forecast gains as 'Livingstone' factor worries leadership Labour plays down forecast gains as 'Livingstone' factor worries leadership
(about 2 hours later)
Ed Miliband is bracing himself for a challenging time on Friday amid fears that Ken Livingstone is struggling in London and irritation that Labour's opponents have been unfairly over-stating expectations about the party's performance across Britain. Ed Miliband is bracing himself for a challenging time on Friday amid fears that Ken Livingstone is struggling in London and irritation that Labour's opponents have been unfairly overstating expectations about the party's performance across Britain.
As voters prepare to go to the polls on Thursday , the three main parties embarked on the annual briefing war in which they downplay expectations of their chances and exaggerate the likely performance of their rivals.As voters prepare to go to the polls on Thursday , the three main parties embarked on the annual briefing war in which they downplay expectations of their chances and exaggerate the likely performance of their rivals.
Nearly 5,000 seats on 181 councils in England, Scotland and Wales are up for grabs. The highest-profile contest will take place in London where Livingstone and Boris Johnson are vying for the largest personal electoral mandate in Europe after the president of France.Nearly 5,000 seats on 181 councils in England, Scotland and Wales are up for grabs. The highest-profile contest will take place in London where Livingstone and Boris Johnson are vying for the largest personal electoral mandate in Europe after the president of France.
There are also inaugural mayoral contests in Liverpool and Salford and referendums on whether to establish directly elected mayors in 10 large English cities. Yes campaigners fear that the No camp is nudging ahead in Birmingham, England's second city.There are also inaugural mayoral contests in Liverpool and Salford and referendums on whether to establish directly elected mayors in 10 large English cities. Yes campaigners fear that the No camp is nudging ahead in Birmingham, England's second city.
Miliband will face the greatest challenge on Friday evening, by which time most council results will have been declared and the London results will be announced. Labour is polling at a relatively high rate nationally – 40% in a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times – way above the 24% it secured in the 2008 local elections when the seats being contested tomorrow were last up for grabs in England and Wales.Miliband will face the greatest challenge on Friday evening, by which time most council results will have been declared and the London results will be announced. Labour is polling at a relatively high rate nationally – 40% in a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times – way above the 24% it secured in the 2008 local elections when the seats being contested tomorrow were last up for grabs in England and Wales.
The combination of a high poll rating today and a low rating in 2008 has prompted some psephologists to say that Labour should make dramatic gains. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, the psephologists at Plymouth University's elections centre, say that Labour should make 700 gains.The combination of a high poll rating today and a low rating in 2008 has prompted some psephologists to say that Labour should make dramatic gains. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, the psephologists at Plymouth University's elections centre, say that Labour should make 700 gains.
"Labour is certain to gain hundreds of councillors in the local elections on Thursday as it seeks to take advantage of the coalition's 'omni-shambles' and show it can deliver votes in the ballot box as well as expressions of support in the polls," Rallings and Thrasher wrote in a survey published on the Sunday Times website. "With the Tories having to defend seats won at the 2008 electoral high-water mark of their long period in opposition, Ed Miliband's party cannot help but advance." "Labour is certain to gain hundreds of councillors in the local elections … as it seeks to take advantage of the coalition's 'omni-shambles' and show it can deliver votes in the ballot box as well as expressions of support in the polls," Rallings and Thrasher wrote in a survey published on the Sunday Times website. "With the Tories having to defend seats won at the 2008 electoral high-water mark of their long period in opposition, Ed Miliband's party cannot help but advance."
Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, said that Labour should achieve 700 gains "fairly easily". He told the Sunday Times: "They may well go on to even greater numbers."Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, said that Labour should achieve 700 gains "fairly easily". He told the Sunday Times: "They may well go on to even greater numbers."
Labour says it is hoping to make gains of between 300 to 350 in England and 100 in Wales. It expects to make net losses in Scotland where the SNP is still riding high after its success in last year's parliamentary elections.Labour says it is hoping to make gains of between 300 to 350 in England and 100 in Wales. It expects to make net losses in Scotland where the SNP is still riding high after its success in last year's parliamentary elections.
One Labour source said: "There is a lot of silliness on numbers. The 700 figure is inflated because it assumes that a national swing will translate down to a local level. That is never the case. We all know that incumbency and local issues matter."One Labour source said: "There is a lot of silliness on numbers. The 700 figure is inflated because it assumes that a national swing will translate down to a local level. That is never the case. We all know that incumbency and local issues matter."
Labour believes it is on course to perform well in the elections to the 25-strong Greater London Assembly where it currently has eight seats. The Tories have 11. Labour expects to top the poll. Labour believes it is on course to perform well in the elections to the 25-strong London Assembly where it currently has eight seats. The Tories have 11. Labour expects to top the poll.
But Labour fears that Livingstone, who is polling behind Labour, will struggle against Johnson. "The London contest appears to show there is a Ken Livingstone factor and not a Labour factor at play. When the fight is on policy we win. When it is on personality it is tough."But Labour fears that Livingstone, who is polling behind Labour, will struggle against Johnson. "The London contest appears to show there is a Ken Livingstone factor and not a Labour factor at play. When the fight is on policy we win. When it is on personality it is tough."
Beyond London, Labour has three main aims:Beyond London, Labour has three main aims:
• Take control of six English councils which are run by the Conservatives either alone or with the Lib Dems. The list is headed by Birmingham where Miliband launched his campaign for the local elections last month. The other councils are Derby, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wirral, Plymouth and Southampton.• Take control of six English councils which are run by the Conservatives either alone or with the Lib Dems. The list is headed by Birmingham where Miliband launched his campaign for the local elections last month. The other councils are Derby, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wirral, Plymouth and Southampton.
• Win control of councils in parliamentary seats the party must win if Miliband is to make it to No 10. These are Carlisle, Harlow, Norwich, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Reading and Rossendale.• Win control of councils in parliamentary seats the party must win if Miliband is to make it to No 10. These are Carlisle, Harlow, Norwich, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Reading and Rossendale.
• Ensure that the SNP does not gain control of Glasgow which Labour has controlled for the last three decades.• Ensure that the SNP does not gain control of Glasgow which Labour has controlled for the last three decades.
David Cameron is expecting to lose at least 400 seats because the Tories performed strongly, with 44% of vote, when the seats were last fought in 2008. The Tories are on 29%, according to the Sunday Times YouGov poll at the weekend. "We expect it will be a difficult night," one Tory source said.David Cameron is expecting to lose at least 400 seats because the Tories performed strongly, with 44% of vote, when the seats were last fought in 2008. The Tories are on 29%, according to the Sunday Times YouGov poll at the weekend. "We expect it will be a difficult night," one Tory source said.
The Liberal Democrats have set a low benchmark: they want to do better than last year, described by the party as a "disaster", when it lost 760 seats and 44% all councillors standing for re-election. Sources say that the elections will be particularly tough because a third of the seats (822) on the 36 English metropolitan district councils are up for grabs. The Liberal Democrats have set a low benchmark: they want to do better than last year, described by the party as a "disaster", when it lost 760 seats and 44% of all councillors standing for re-election. Sources say that the elections will be particularly tough because a third of the seats (822) on the 36 English metropolitan district councils are up for grabs.
"This is the third year when seats in the same wards are being contested. Since 2010, the first year in this cycle, we have been hollowed out in the big metropolitan cities in the north. In a lot of these cities there is no Conservative presence so the only way to kick the government is to hit the Lib Dems.""This is the third year when seats in the same wards are being contested. Since 2010, the first year in this cycle, we have been hollowed out in the big metropolitan cities in the north. In a lot of these cities there is no Conservative presence so the only way to kick the government is to hit the Lib Dems."
The two key challenges for the Lib Dems are Cardiff and Cambridge where the party's control is on a knife edge. Of the nine Lib Dem-controlled councils up for election, the party hopes to retain control of eight.The two key challenges for the Lib Dems are Cardiff and Cambridge where the party's control is on a knife edge. Of the nine Lib Dem-controlled councils up for election, the party hopes to retain control of eight.