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| Republican primary season wrapping up with weird | Republican primary season wrapping up with weird |
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| Many consider voting to be an irrational activity. The thinking goes like this: people believe that their one vote won't make a difference, but they go to the polls anyway. How dumb is that, say these cynics. More recent research has uncoupled the idea that voting is somehow irrational because it tends to be un-self-interested; studies show that voters tend to vote for the good of the country – rather than out of self-interest – and that is, of course, rational. | Many consider voting to be an irrational activity. The thinking goes like this: people believe that their one vote won't make a difference, but they go to the polls anyway. How dumb is that, say these cynics. More recent research has uncoupled the idea that voting is somehow irrational because it tends to be un-self-interested; studies show that voters tend to vote for the good of the country – rather than out of self-interest – and that is, of course, rational. |
| But what about when votes truly don't matter? What about elections in which the good of the country isn't at issue, because the choice has already been made? In other words, forget predictions that most Pennsylvania voters won't turn out today; what's up with the ones who do? | But what about when votes truly don't matter? What about elections in which the good of the country isn't at issue, because the choice has already been made? In other words, forget predictions that most Pennsylvania voters won't turn out today; what's up with the ones who do? |
| Pennsylvania is holding primaries for other offices besides president, of course. And some percentage of voters is going to turn out because they feel passionately about those choices (maybe they're a relative of the candidate?). But political scientists acknowledge that it's the presidential primary that has the potential to motivate the most people. Races that are further down the ballot suffer, ironically, because we feel so strongly about electing people to office. | Pennsylvania is holding primaries for other offices besides president, of course. And some percentage of voters is going to turn out because they feel passionately about those choices (maybe they're a relative of the candidate?). But political scientists acknowledge that it's the presidential primary that has the potential to motivate the most people. Races that are further down the ballot suffer, ironically, because we feel so strongly about electing people to office. |
| "Dog-catcher, county clerk, judges … I mean every year, voting is going on in America," says Noah Kaplan, a visiting professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "People are fundamentally far less excited or tuned in to primaries because there are so many of them." | "Dog-catcher, county clerk, judges … I mean every year, voting is going on in America," says Noah Kaplan, a visiting professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "People are fundamentally far less excited or tuned in to primaries because there are so many of them." |
| Yet, Mitt Romney is still running ads in the state and Rick Santorum has coyly refrained from endorsing the presumptive nominee, indicating that he may hope for a symbolic victory – which, in this case, could very well still mean losing, if not by much. That soft sucker-punch is the motivation that's most intelligible to pundit types, and to the Romney campaign itself. Voters standing up to be counted because they want to deliver a resounding win for Romney have simply reframed for themselves the Pennsylvania primary as a national contest. | Yet, Mitt Romney is still running ads in the state and Rick Santorum has coyly refrained from endorsing the presumptive nominee, indicating that he may hope for a symbolic victory – which, in this case, could very well still mean losing, if not by much. That soft sucker-punch is the motivation that's most intelligible to pundit types, and to the Romney campaign itself. Voters standing up to be counted because they want to deliver a resounding win for Romney have simply reframed for themselves the Pennsylvania primary as a national contest. |
| Could the urge to deny Romney that vote of confidence give his rivals enough of a boost that Romney again fails to gain a plurality of the Republicans' favor? Historically, that's unlikely. Americans, for some reason, don't flock to spoil a candidacy. | Could the urge to deny Romney that vote of confidence give his rivals enough of a boost that Romney again fails to gain a plurality of the Republicans' favor? Historically, that's unlikely. Americans, for some reason, don't flock to spoil a candidacy. |
| "In Europe, 'Mickey Mouse' consistently picks up some votes," says Kaplan. "It is less common in the US." Probably because, Kaplan speculates, American voters are more locked into thinking of political contests as having a single winner (and, usually, a single loser). We don't have governing coalitions. Also, says Andrew Gelman, another Columbia professor of political science, "The evidence is that Americans are sincere when they vote." | "In Europe, 'Mickey Mouse' consistently picks up some votes," says Kaplan. "It is less common in the US." Probably because, Kaplan speculates, American voters are more locked into thinking of political contests as having a single winner (and, usually, a single loser). We don't have governing coalitions. Also, says Andrew Gelman, another Columbia professor of political science, "The evidence is that Americans are sincere when they vote." |
| What's more, polling research shows that closer we get to a national election, the more likely voters will zoom in on the candidate who seems to be the best choice for the larger number of people. For Republican primary voters, even conservatives who find Romney personally squishy, that means accepting him as "the most electable". Gelman, who is also co-author with Kaplan of the article "Voting as a Rational Decision", points out that voters in earlier primaries were probably not making their choices based on that "common good" criteria. They were voting "off the top of their heads". | What's more, polling research shows that closer we get to a national election, the more likely voters will zoom in on the candidate who seems to be the best choice for the larger number of people. For Republican primary voters, even conservatives who find Romney personally squishy, that means accepting him as "the most electable". Gelman, who is also co-author with Kaplan of the article "Voting as a Rational Decision", points out that voters in earlier primaries were probably not making their choices based on that "common good" criteria. They were voting "off the top of their heads". |
| Even now, according to Gelman, voters who might turn out to support Santorum are not arguing that he "would be a better president than anyone. They're just saying they agree with him." And that motivates them more than any desire to spoil Romney. | Even now, according to Gelman, voters who might turn out to support Santorum are not arguing that he "would be a better president than anyone. They're just saying they agree with him." And that motivates them more than any desire to spoil Romney. |
| The fact that the incentives for non-Romney voters are statistically weaker than than those for Romney voters doesn't, however, mean that we can scientifically predict a huge win for the Massachusetts governor. There is, in questions regarding human nature, always a twist – and in this election, it is that low turnout itself is bad for Romney (or at least, makes the outcome harder to predict). | The fact that the incentives for non-Romney voters are statistically weaker than than those for Romney voters doesn't, however, mean that we can scientifically predict a huge win for the Massachusetts governor. There is, in questions regarding human nature, always a twist – and in this election, it is that low turnout itself is bad for Romney (or at least, makes the outcome harder to predict). |
| "When turnout is low," says Kaplan, "the higher the probability of low-probability events occurring." | "When turnout is low," says Kaplan, "the higher the probability of low-probability events occurring." |
| And why is that? Why can't polling help predict the predilections of that last 15-20% who will dutifully file into polling places just because? Don't they care that they're voting into a void? | And why is that? Why can't polling help predict the predilections of that last 15-20% who will dutifully file into polling places just because? Don't they care that they're voting into a void? |
| Republican primary demographics tell us that these patriots are probably more wealthy, more highly educated, and more politically informed than voters in the general election. Surely that's good for Romney, even if those same demographic studies say that Republican primary voters are also more conservative? | Republican primary demographics tell us that these patriots are probably more wealthy, more highly educated, and more politically informed than voters in the general election. Surely that's good for Romney, even if those same demographic studies say that Republican primary voters are also more conservative? |
| It would seem, though, that this upper-middle-class, college-graduate GOP voter is the person who would also be the first to acknowledge that his vote means very little. Still, he's there: the only person in the office with the cheery "I voted today!" sticker on his lapel. | It would seem, though, that this upper-middle-class, college-graduate GOP voter is the person who would also be the first to acknowledge that his vote means very little. Still, he's there: the only person in the office with the cheery "I voted today!" sticker on his lapel. |
| Gelman admits that there is a limit to the scientific research one can do on voter motivations – "I don't know if you need to try to figure out" what energises the most dedicated segment of the electorate, he says. "You're asking, 'What about these 10% that turn out? They're so weird; why do they do that?'" Gelman shrugs: "People just do weird things all the time." | Gelman admits that there is a limit to the scientific research one can do on voter motivations – "I don't know if you need to try to figure out" what energises the most dedicated segment of the electorate, he says. "You're asking, 'What about these 10% that turn out? They're so weird; why do they do that?'" Gelman shrugs: "People just do weird things all the time." |
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