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| Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum spar over Ohio - live coverage | Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum spar over Ohio - live coverage |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 12.30pm: British people will bet on two flies crawling up a wall, so the Republican presidential race is similarly appealing to their gambling instincts. | |
| Mike Smithson, the doyen of British political betting, says that the market has spoken and Mitt Romney has a lock on the Republican nomination: "Is there anything that can stop him now?" | |
| 12 noon: So Rick Santorum is in a three-way in North Carolina. According to the opinion polls that is, in real life Rick Santorum would never be found between two men. | |
| This new poll from PPP finds Santorum on top – ok, I'll stop now – of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich: | |
| Rick Santorum's taken the lead in the Republican Presidential race in North Carolina with 31% to 25% for Mitt Romney and 23% for Newt Gingrich. A month ago Gingrich and Romney were tied for the lead with Santorum running 10 points behind. | |
| Romney's staying competitive in North Carolina despite the fact that GOP voters there are pretty tepid toward him. Only 43% have a favorable opinion and an equal 43% see him negatively. That makes him less popular than both Gingrich (45/41) and Santorum (58/29). | |
| Obviously Romney benefits from Santorum and Gingrich splitting the more conservative vote in the Tarheel state. Without Gingrich in the mix, Santorum would lead with 43% to 33% for Romney and 10% for Ron Paul. | |
| 11.30am: From the Yawno McBoring files: Mitt Romney is beating Ron Paul like a gong in Virginia, according to polling ahead of Super Tuesday's primary. | 11.30am: From the Yawno McBoring files: Mitt Romney is beating Ron Paul like a gong in Virginia, according to polling ahead of Super Tuesday's primary. |
| Because the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns couldn't organise a celibacy drive in a convent, they failed to get their names on the Virginia ballot, so leaving Mitt Romney and Ron Paul as the only candidates for GOP electors there. Great choice! That's like having to pick between Wonder Bread or raw kelp for lunch. | Because the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns couldn't organise a celibacy drive in a convent, they failed to get their names on the Virginia ballot, so leaving Mitt Romney and Ron Paul as the only candidates for GOP electors there. Great choice! That's like having to pick between Wonder Bread or raw kelp for lunch. |
| The net result is: Romney leads Paul by 56%-21%. | The net result is: Romney leads Paul by 56%-21%. |
| The Roanoke College Poll also offers a glimpse of what might have been: it also polled the race with all four contenders, and it found Romney in a close margin-of-error race with Santorum, by 31% to 27%. | The Roanoke College Poll also offers a glimpse of what might have been: it also polled the race with all four contenders, and it found Romney in a close margin-of-error race with Santorum, by 31% to 27%. |
| Well done Virginia GOP. Instead of an exciting primary with lots of attention and advertising, you get nothing. | Well done Virginia GOP. Instead of an exciting primary with lots of attention and advertising, you get nothing. |
| 11.15am: The Atlantic has an interview with President Obama, on the subject of Israel and its likely response to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, with Obama saying "I don't bluff": | 11.15am: The Atlantic has an interview with President Obama, on the subject of Israel and its likely response to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, with Obama saying "I don't bluff": |
| I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say. | I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say. |
| The interview is an obviously something of an ice-breaker for Monday's visit by Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to the White House. | The interview is an obviously something of an ice-breaker for Monday's visit by Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to the White House. |
| 10.55am: Judge Richard Cebull has been sending more emails about President Obama – although this time they are letters of apology rather than jokes about his mother having sex with dogs. So that's an improvement by the Montana Chief US District Judge. | 10.55am: Judge Richard Cebull has been sending more emails about President Obama – although this time they are letters of apology rather than jokes about his mother having sex with dogs. So that's an improvement by the Montana Chief US District Judge. |
| After Judge Cebull's racist email was exposed by the Great Falls Tribune newspaper yesterday, Cebull has sent a letter of apology to Obama, which reads: | After Judge Cebull's racist email was exposed by the Great Falls Tribune newspaper yesterday, Cebull has sent a letter of apology to Obama, which reads: |
| I sincerely and profusely apologize to you and your family for the email I forwarded. I accept full responsibility; I have no one to blame but myself. I can assure you that such action on my part will never happen again. I have requested that the Judicial Council of the Ninth Circuit review this matter. Honestly, I don't know what else I can do. Please forgive me and, again, my most sincere apology. | I sincerely and profusely apologize to you and your family for the email I forwarded. I accept full responsibility; I have no one to blame but myself. I can assure you that such action on my part will never happen again. I have requested that the Judicial Council of the Ninth Circuit review this matter. Honestly, I don't know what else I can do. Please forgive me and, again, my most sincere apology. |
| PS: can I please keep my job? Well at least that's a proper apology. | PS: can I please keep my job? Well at least that's a proper apology. |
| Cebull has indeed reported himself to the the judicial council of the San Francisco-based 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals. And he has company: the watchdog Common Cause has also filed a complaint with the 9th circuit, accusing Cebull of violating federal judicial canons and of conduct "prejudicial to the effective and expeditious administration of the business of the courts." | Cebull has indeed reported himself to the the judicial council of the San Francisco-based 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals. And he has company: the watchdog Common Cause has also filed a complaint with the 9th circuit, accusing Cebull of violating federal judicial canons and of conduct "prejudicial to the effective and expeditious administration of the business of the courts." |
| But what should we make of this report by the Associated Press out of Helena, Montana, which appears to excuse Cebull's behaviour: | But what should we make of this report by the Associated Press out of Helena, Montana, which appears to excuse Cebull's behaviour: |
| Cebull's dislike of Obama reflects some Montanans' views of the president and the backlash to his key policies. | Cebull's dislike of Obama reflects some Montanans' views of the president and the backlash to his key policies. |
| Oh well, that's all right then? | Oh well, that's all right then? |
| 10.38am: And even more polling details, from the new PPP poll of Washington state, where the GOP caucuses this weekend. It highlights one of Mitt Romney's secret political weapons: Mormons. Idaho, Utah, Nevada – and now Washington: | 10.38am: And even more polling details, from the new PPP poll of Washington state, where the GOP caucuses this weekend. It highlights one of Mitt Romney's secret political weapons: Mormons. Idaho, Utah, Nevada – and now Washington: |
| If Romney does end up winning Saturday night it will be a large Mormon vote that puts him over the top. We find that 14% of likely caucus goers are Mormons and 64% of them support Romney to 15% for Paul and 13% for Santorum. Romney actually trails Santorum 35-32 with non-Mormons. Other groups Romney is particularly strong with include seniors (44-31), men (37-28), and moderates (34-22). | If Romney does end up winning Saturday night it will be a large Mormon vote that puts him over the top. We find that 14% of likely caucus goers are Mormons and 64% of them support Romney to 15% for Paul and 13% for Santorum. Romney actually trails Santorum 35-32 with non-Mormons. Other groups Romney is particularly strong with include seniors (44-31), men (37-28), and moderates (34-22). |
| 10.20am: More details from the latest polls in Ohio. | 10.20am: More details from the latest polls in Ohio. |
| Ramussen found a huge improvement in the state for Mitt Romney after his win in Michigan. Santorum is still in the lead with 33% compared with Romney's 31%, but 70% of Ohio Republicans think Romney will be the eventual nominee (even if less than half of them actually want to vote for him in the primary): | Ramussen found a huge improvement in the state for Mitt Romney after his win in Michigan. Santorum is still in the lead with 33% compared with Romney's 31%, but 70% of Ohio Republicans think Romney will be the eventual nominee (even if less than half of them actually want to vote for him in the primary): |
| Overall, 67% have a favorable opinion of Santorum, and 66% say the same about Romney. For Santorum, those numbers represent an eight-point decline, while Romney's numbers are a two-point improvement. Fifty-four percent (54%) offer favorable reviews of Gingrich, but just 38% are that upbeat about Paul. | Overall, 67% have a favorable opinion of Santorum, and 66% say the same about Romney. For Santorum, those numbers represent an eight-point decline, while Romney's numbers are a two-point improvement. Fifty-four percent (54%) offer favorable reviews of Gingrich, but just 38% are that upbeat about Paul. |
| Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Ohio voters are certain of how they will vote. Thirty-five percent (35%) could change their minds, and eight percent (8%) have no initial preference. | Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Ohio voters are certain of how they will vote. Thirty-five percent (35%) could change their minds, and eight percent (8%) have no initial preference. |
| Santorum leads by 20 among Very Conservative voters, while Romney has an 18-point advantage among those who are Somewhat Conservative. | Santorum leads by 20 among Very Conservative voters, while Romney has an 18-point advantage among those who are Somewhat Conservative. |
| Santorum leads among those who earn between $20,000 and $75,000 annually. Romney leads among other income groups. | Santorum leads among those who earn between $20,000 and $75,000 annually. Romney leads among other income groups. |
| The new Quinnipiac poll actually finds little change since before the Michigan result, with Santorum on 35% and Mitt Romney on 31%. That compares to a 36% to 29% Santorum lead in a 27 February poll by the same group: | The new Quinnipiac poll actually finds little change since before the Michigan result, with Santorum on 35% and Mitt Romney on 31%. That compares to a 36% to 29% Santorum lead in a 27 February poll by the same group: |
| Santorum leads Romney 34-28 percent among men and 37-33 percent among women, 40-27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42-25 percent among Tea Party members. Romney leads Santorum 46-26 percent among self-described moderates. | Santorum leads Romney 34-28 percent among men and 37-33 percent among women, 40-27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42-25 percent among Tea Party members. Romney leads Santorum 46-26 percent among self-described moderates. |
| So what does that all mean? OTWT as we say in the trade. | So what does that all mean? OTWT as we say in the trade. |
| 10am: Tensions are rising as the Super Tuesday showdown approaches for the Republican candidates – and Mitt Romney's campaign labelling Ohio's primary as a "must win" for Rick Santorum's presidential ambitions. | 10am: Tensions are rising as the Super Tuesday showdown approaches for the Republican candidates – and Mitt Romney's campaign labelling Ohio's primary as a "must win" for Rick Santorum's presidential ambitions. |
| Here's a summary of the news from Ryan Devereaux: | Here's a summary of the news from Ryan Devereaux: |
| • Recent polling shows Rick Santorum is holding on to narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio. According to a new survey from Quinnipac, the former Pennsylvania senator has 35% of support from likely Republican voters while Romney has 31%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, has 17% and Texas congressman Ron Paul has 12%. Ohio is considered one of, if not the, most crucial state up for grabs on Super Tuesday, which is less than a week away. | • Recent polling shows Rick Santorum is holding on to narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio. According to a new survey from Quinnipac, the former Pennsylvania senator has 35% of support from likely Republican voters while Romney has 31%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, has 17% and Texas congressman Ron Paul has 12%. Ohio is considered one of, if not the, most crucial state up for grabs on Super Tuesday, which is less than a week away. |
| • Meanwhile Public Policy Polling has Romney nosing just ahead of Santorum in this Saturday's Washington caucuses. According to PPP, Romney has 37% while Santorum comes in with 32%. Paul has 16% and just 13% support Gingrich. The figures indicate a substantial reversal. Just two weeks ago Santorum's favorability in the state was far better than Romney's. | • Meanwhile Public Policy Polling has Romney nosing just ahead of Santorum in this Saturday's Washington caucuses. According to PPP, Romney has 37% while Santorum comes in with 32%. Paul has 16% and just 13% support Gingrich. The figures indicate a substantial reversal. Just two weeks ago Santorum's favorability in the state was far better than Romney's. |
| • In his latest effort at seeming normal, Mitt Romney has reassured Nascar fans that he too wears "garbage bags". On Sunday he attended the Daytona 500 and told AP that while he doesn't follow the sport closely, he has friends who are Nascar team owners. The multimillionaire then went on to make fun of the inexpensive rain ponchos the common sports fan sometimes wears. "I like those fancy raincoats you bought. Really sprung for the big bucks," he reportedly said. After apparently realizing the comment could be interpreted as rich guy snobbery, Romney backtracked, saying ""Look, I've worn a garbage bag for rain gear myself...We're out there in the rain. The rain was getting us soaked. I didn't have a raincoat myself. I would have liked one of those." | • In his latest effort at seeming normal, Mitt Romney has reassured Nascar fans that he too wears "garbage bags". On Sunday he attended the Daytona 500 and told AP that while he doesn't follow the sport closely, he has friends who are Nascar team owners. The multimillionaire then went on to make fun of the inexpensive rain ponchos the common sports fan sometimes wears. "I like those fancy raincoats you bought. Really sprung for the big bucks," he reportedly said. After apparently realizing the comment could be interpreted as rich guy snobbery, Romney backtracked, saying ""Look, I've worn a garbage bag for rain gear myself...We're out there in the rain. The rain was getting us soaked. I didn't have a raincoat myself. I would have liked one of those." |
| • ABC's John Karl has uncovered footage of Romney explaining that he is a "big believer in going where the money is." The former governor adds, "the money is in Washington". The video was secretly recorded in 2002 by Romney's Democratic opponents while he spoke to a group called the New Bedford Industrial Foundation. Romney, who frequently cirticises his opponents for being Washington insiders is heard saying: "I want to go after every grant, every project, every department in Washington to assure that we are taking advantage of economic development opportunities." | • ABC's John Karl has uncovered footage of Romney explaining that he is a "big believer in going where the money is." The former governor adds, "the money is in Washington". The video was secretly recorded in 2002 by Romney's Democratic opponents while he spoke to a group called the New Bedford Industrial Foundation. Romney, who frequently cirticises his opponents for being Washington insiders is heard saying: "I want to go after every grant, every project, every department in Washington to assure that we are taking advantage of economic development opportunities." |
| • Newt Gingrich has blamed teachers for the increasing acceptance of same-sex marriage. While taking part in a conference call in which a woman suggested that same sex marriage would lead to humans marrying dogs, Gingrich pointed out, "Remember we have now had a whole two generations of teachers who explained to us 'you shouldn't render moral judgment, after all it's all situation ethics, who are we to decide,' and that's been a major problem." | • Newt Gingrich has blamed teachers for the increasing acceptance of same-sex marriage. While taking part in a conference call in which a woman suggested that same sex marriage would lead to humans marrying dogs, Gingrich pointed out, "Remember we have now had a whole two generations of teachers who explained to us 'you shouldn't render moral judgment, after all it's all situation ethics, who are we to decide,' and that's been a major problem." |
| • President Obama's birth certificate is likely a forgery, Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio has concluded. The publicity-seeking Maricopa County sheriff held a press conference yesterday to announce the findings of a "six-month-long investigation" by his friends. | • President Obama's birth certificate is likely a forgery, Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio has concluded. The publicity-seeking Maricopa County sheriff held a press conference yesterday to announce the findings of a "six-month-long investigation" by his friends. |