Michigan and Arizona primary results: panel verdict
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Version 0 of 1. Jim Antle: 'He appears to have weathered his latest anti-Romney. Until next week' What a difference three points makes. With that margin of victory, Mitt Romney is back to being the inevitable frontrunner. He stands triumphant over Rick Santorum, validating all his electoral strategies, rebuking Santorum's weird mix of hardline social conservatism and Democratic outreach, and robocalls dinging Romney for opposing an auto bailout the former Pennsylvania senator was also against. But if the results were only slightly different, Santorum would be the genius. Romney won Arizona, a winner-take-all state, by double digits. And while some are saying his former home state of Michigan should never have been close, he defeated Santorum by ten points among voters who identify as Republicans. That's almost unheard of in a contest between a GOP establishment candidate and a conservative challenger. Santorum hurt himself in a debate where he admitted to putting partisanship above principle during the Bush years – he took one for the team on budget-busting Medicare Part D and No Child Left Behind – and then did more damage with his "Democrats for Santorum" strategy (likely, a last-minute panic move). The last of these missteps came during a period when Santorum had appeared to regain the momentum. None of this changes the fact that Romney remains vulnerable in the South and no shoo-in elsewhere. His fraudulence and banality remain a sticking point with Republican primary voters. So do his persistent insults to their intelligence, such as his comment that the "base" rewards "incendiary" rhetoric. Romney will still struggle, but he appears to have weathered his latest anti-Romney. Until next week. <em>James Antle is associate editor of the American Spectator</em> Cheri Jacobus: 'Surprisingly, Santorum lost the Catholic vote in Arizona and Michigan' Arizona faithfully and predictably went for Mitt Romney in its GOP presidential primary contest, handing him a victory over Rick Santorum. Michigan proved to be more fickle, playing ever-so-coy and hard-to-get. Late last evening, Michigan finally fell into the arms of native son Mitt Romney, leaving Rick Santorum on the side of the road, along with Ron Paul in third place, and Newt Gingrich trailing in fourth. Within a week, Santorum lost a ten-point lead he'd enjoyed in the polls. But while even a narrow Michigan loss for Romney would have been devastating, chiefly due to the fact his father was governor, the 30 delegates are awarded proportionally, so he'd have gotten his fair share. In fact, it is Arizona's winner-take-all rule that provides Romney with a hefty boost, garnering him 29 new delegates. In one of the more surprising turns of the night, exit polls indicate that Santorum, a devout Catholic who, of late, has focused heavily on religious and social issues, lost the Catholic vote in both Arizona and Michigan. And whether those Santorum robocalls to Democratic households in Michigan, urging them to vote for Santorum in the open primary (where Democrats can vote in a Republican primary) were of any value from a net gain perspective remains to be seen. My hunch is the move may have angered a significant number of Republicans who previously had been leaning Santorum, or on the fence, thus costing Santorum GOP-registered voters even as he scrounged for votes from the other party. Ten percent of yesterday's Michigan votes cast were by Democrats, with half going for Santorum and only 15% for Romney, according to exit polls. Significantly, the Santorum lead in the polls was largely due to Democrats planning to vote in the GOP primary, intending to damage the candidate they perceived to be the biggest threat to President Obama's bid for a second term – Mitt Romney. It was a risky move, but one that may haunt Rick Santorum down the road. <em>Cheri Jacobus is a political strategist, pundit and writer</em> Grover Norquist: 'Santorum must worry that southern states may choose Gingrich on Super Tuesday' When Mitt Romney won the Republican primaries in Arizona and Michigan he executed what they call in wrestling a "reversal". Recent polling and pundits' predictions had Santorum building on his recent victories in three caucus states (Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri). Romney's double win Tuesday night was a shock to the Santorum campaign, as well as a boost to his own. Conservatives will now focus on Santorum's last-ditch effort to encourage liberal Democrats to vote for him over Romney – a bit of a departure from his previous sales pitch that he was the Reaganite Conservative candidate against the moderate/liberal/establishment Romney. Santorum has been polling ahead in next week's primary in Ohio, but then, he had been polling ahead in Michigan. Are all Santorum leads in primaries ephemeral, lasting only until the Romney juggernaut of negative ads and organization reverses them? Santorum can come back, but must worry now that voters in the southern states casting votes on Super Tuesday may, once again, choose Gingrich – as they did in South Carolina – as the most viable alternative to Romney. Ron Paul rolls forward with his 10% of the vote, slowly building his movement-within-a-movement. Patient and consistent and unflappable, Ron Paul is not running to win the nomination in 2012. He is running to win the Republican future. <em>Grover Norquist is president of Americans for Tax Reform</em> Michael Wissot: 'It doesn't take an Arizona sheriff to suspect foul play in Michigan' The prevailing commentary throughout this primary has centered on Mitt Romney's struggle to coalesce his party. What seems to go unnoticed is Romney's ability to survive incessant criticism – albeit fair game when vying for the presidency. That's what this race has been about – who can remain steady. Romney has overcome three critical moments: Rick Perry declaring his candidacy; Newt Gingrich captivating viewers with "big ideas" during the December and January debates; and now Rick Santorum arguing that he's the last conservative standing. In each instance, Romney climbed back and gradually increased his support base. Arizona was always Romney's for the taking, and it remains a safe Republican state this fall. But Michigan presented a more dynamic challenge. For the first time, the economy took center stage. As Romney touted jobs with his "this is personal" message, Santorum inexplicably embroiled himself in social issues. It's paradoxical, considering how passionately Santorum argued in Iowa, two months ago, the need to rebuild America's manufacturing base and become more competitive. Meanwhile, the more intriguing economic debate ensued between Romney and President Obama. Romney's opposition to the auto industry bailout, along with General Motors posting a $7.6bn profit, prompted Democrats to pounce. Even the president took a shot at Romney, as Michigan voters headed to the polls. Democrats tried desperately to intervene in this open Republican primary, even urging union members to vote for Santorum. Among those who strongly oppose the Tea Party (roughly 12% of voters), Santorum beat Romney 45% to 29%. It's hard to believe that the most conservative candidate, according to the Michigan exit polls, would also galvanize Tea Party opponents. It doesn't take an Arizona sheriff to suspect foul play in Michigan. Romney's narrow victory, however, exposes a deeper concern about whether he can challenge President Obama across the Rust Belt, including Michigan. Romney beat Santorum 43%-37% among non-union members (about 86% of voters), but lost 45%-30% among union members. In a general election, union membership will be vastly higher. So, in battleground states within America's industrial heartland, this general election is shaping up like a labor war between unions and management. Guess who will play each role? This primary season will drag on a bit longer, and it should. Supporters of these candidates have worked too hard for anyone to tell them to pack their bags early. But the remaining tactical options for Santorum and Gingrich are dwindling fast. Romney will win a wealth of delegates on Super Tuesday and make his case for unity, well before the convention. But as we saw in Michigan, the more contentious battle looms this November. <em>Michael Wissot is a senior strategist for Luntz Global</em> Tim Montgomerie: 'This is a presidential election about jobs and debt – not contraception and homosexuality' For all of the twists and turns in the Republican nomination process, most observers expected Mitt Romney to prevail in the end – and he almost certainly still will. GOP activists know in their hearts that the last of the Not-Romney candidates is unelectable. Rick Santorum's social conservatism plays well to the Republican base, but independent voters – particularly women – fear some of his views. His confrontational language, as much as his substantive positions, ignores the great political lesson of Barack Obama's candidacy: voters will give your policies the green light if you seem moderate and civilized in tone. Romney is far from the perfect candidate, but he is improving. His machine is getting better at rebuttal. He is now battle-tested and has more convincing responses to the attacks on his wealth. Most importantly, Romney is focusing on the economy. This is going to be an election about jobs and debt – not contraception and homosexuality. The election remains incredibly winnable. Despite the rancorous GOP nomination process, two opinion polls in recent days have shown Romney tied with Obama in a general election head-to-head. A whole series of events from trouble in the eurozone to rising gas prices could derail the recovery of the economy and Obama's own political recovery. The Republicans in Congress are becoming more "on message", as evidenced by their vote on the payroll tax cut extension. Debt, healthcare and energy remain winning issues for the GOP. If Romney wins most of the races next Tuesday, he can increasingly focus on the real battle :ending Obama's debt-fuelled presidency. <em>Tim Montgomerie is editor of ConservativeHomeUSA</em> Matt Lewis: 'Romney dodged a bullet that could have devastated his campaign' There is nothing more exhilarating," Churchill once wrote, "than to be shot at without result." Mitt Romney now knows what that feels like: Tuesday night, he dodged a bullet that could have devastated his campaign. The danger for Romney, of course, was that he might fail to meet expectations: because his father was governor of Michigan, and because he won the state's primary four years ago, he was expected to win. By the same token, had Romney simply sailed to victory in the Wolverine State – having faced only token opposition there – a victory could have also been ignored or written off as "to be expected". But this was a crucible. Despite the bumps and bruises, Romney comes away from this experience a stronger, wiser candidate. Sure, he had to spend a lot of money; and sure, he only narrowly won his "home" state. But a win is a win. Romney has often been accused of looking too perfect. Well, what happened in Michigan wasn't perfect – but it worked. Maybe that's appealing. Yet, the celebrations won't last long. Romney must now look to Super Tuesday. His campaign, thus far, has exhibited an unusual split-personality: he wins when he has to, when his back is against the wall. But then, given the opportunity to deliver the coup de grace, he lets his opponents back in the game. Will that pattern repeat itself? If Romney can parlay his Michigan and Arizona victories into a good night on Super Tuesday, this could be all over very soon. If not, we may slog it out for a while yet. <em>Matt Lewis is senior contributor to the Daily Caller</em> |