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| Mitt Romney wins Michigan and Arizona primaries – live reaction | Mitt Romney wins Michigan and Arizona primaries – live reaction |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 2.23pm: More big news from the Senate races for 2012: former Nebraska senator Bob Kerrey announces that he has changed his mind and will run for state's vacant Senate seat. AP reports: | |
| Kerrey's announcement Wednesday comes just weeks after he publicly rejected a run to replace retiring Democratic Senator Ben Nelson. It's also just two days before Nebraska's candidate filing deadline. | |
| The 1992 presidential candidate and former Nebraska governor previously said not running was in his family's best interest. | |
| Kerrey's announcement gives new hope to national Democrats desperate to stop Republicans from netting four Senate seats this fall and regaining control of the chamber. | |
| Kerrey is no shoe-in but he has a fighting chance. Between this and the Olympia Snowe news, a hint that the political environment is improving for the Democrats after the disaster of 2010. | |
| 1.53pm: Tennessee Super Tuesday news – a new poll out of the Volunteer State shows that Rick Santorum has a big lead over Mitt Romney. | |
| According to the Middle Tennessee State University poll: | |
| Forty percent of Tennessee Republicans in the poll favor Santorum compared to 19% who prefer Romney. Another 13% support Newt Gingrich, and 11% back Ron Paul. | |
| Caveat: this poll was done over 13-25 February, well before last night's result in Michigan and Arizona. | |
| 1.29pm: Every vote for Mitt Romney in Michigan cost his campaign $10 in spending, according to analysis relayed by Politico's Dylan Byers: | |
| Late last night, a campaign source sent over the exact totals, showing that Romney campaign and Restore Our Future spent a total $4.27 million on TV and radio spots in the state, while the Santorum campaign, the Red, White and Blue Fund, and the Susan B Anthony list spent $2.27 million. | Late last night, a campaign source sent over the exact totals, showing that Romney campaign and Restore Our Future spent a total $4.27 million on TV and radio spots in the state, while the Santorum campaign, the Red, White and Blue Fund, and the Susan B Anthony list spent $2.27 million. |
| With 99.9% of the state's votes counted, Romney has received 410,523 votes; Santorum has received 378,142. Per the spending totals, that means that Romney et al spent $10.40 on each vote, whereas Santorum et al spent $6 on each vote. | With 99.9% of the state's votes counted, Romney has received 410,523 votes; Santorum has received 378,142. Per the spending totals, that means that Romney et al spent $10.40 on each vote, whereas Santorum et al spent $6 on each vote. |
| Bain Capital Romney might tell Presidential candidate Romney that sort of burn rate is not a good investment. | Bain Capital Romney might tell Presidential candidate Romney that sort of burn rate is not a good investment. |
| 1.11pm: This morning Mitt Romney was visiting a steel post factory in Toledo, Ohio: | |
| Romney tours plant, fires up a machine saying, "I gotta push a button. That'll be my heavy-lift in terms of manufacturing." | Romney tours plant, fires up a machine saying, "I gotta push a button. That'll be my heavy-lift in terms of manufacturing." |
| A minor entry in Mitt Romney's Big Book of Campaign Clunkers. | A minor entry in Mitt Romney's Big Book of Campaign Clunkers. |
| 12.46pm: One of the pieces of received wisdom of the Republican 2012 primaries was that Mitt Romney's campaign had vast sums of money. And it did. | |
| But last night Mitt Romney did something unusual in his victory speech: he mentioned his website and asked for donations. There's a spooky parallel with Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign: the first public sign that her campaign was in financial trouble came when she mentioned her website and asked for donations directly. | But last night Mitt Romney did something unusual in his victory speech: he mentioned his website and asked for donations. There's a spooky parallel with Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign: the first public sign that her campaign was in financial trouble came when she mentioned her website and asked for donations directly. |
| The Wall Street Journal hears suggestions that Romney – like Clinton in 2008 – may have to dip into his own Cayman Islands account at this rate: | The Wall Street Journal hears suggestions that Romney – like Clinton in 2008 – may have to dip into his own Cayman Islands account at this rate: |
| [F]aced with immediate high costs for advertising in multiple states before next week's Super Tuesday contests, Mr Romney may have to write a check from his own personal fortune to tide over his campaign, some Romney allies suggest. | [F]aced with immediate high costs for advertising in multiple states before next week's Super Tuesday contests, Mr Romney may have to write a check from his own personal fortune to tide over his campaign, some Romney allies suggest. |
| Mr Romney formally entered the race in June 2011 and had raised $63 million through the end of January – far outdistancing his remaining GOP competitors. But he has far outspent all of them, too, burning through $56 million in cash by the end of last month. | Mr Romney formally entered the race in June 2011 and had raised $63 million through the end of January – far outdistancing his remaining GOP competitors. But he has far outspent all of them, too, burning through $56 million in cash by the end of last month. |
| At least some of those millions are funds Romney would have been hoping to have used against Obama in the general election. Now he's eating his seed corn to see off Santorum and Gingrich instead. | At least some of those millions are funds Romney would have been hoping to have used against Obama in the general election. Now he's eating his seed corn to see off Santorum and Gingrich instead. |
| 12.22pm: If Mitt Romney is elected president, then we can look forward to four years of this stuff. | |
| The "Who let the dogs out?" part of this clip of Romney out campaigning is well known. But this "director's cut" is even grimmer, especially the part where Romney mistakes a girl for a boy. | The "Who let the dogs out?" part of this clip of Romney out campaigning is well known. But this "director's cut" is even grimmer, especially the part where Romney mistakes a girl for a boy. |
| Mitt Romney Goes To The Parade: The Director's Cut buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynsk… Wow.Just wow.But hey, he's "electable." | Mitt Romney Goes To The Parade: The Director's Cut buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynsk… Wow.Just wow.But hey, he's "electable." |
| Erick Erickson is a big fan. | Erick Erickson is a big fan. |
| 12.09pm: From now on it's non-stop Super Tuesday speculation, and with that in mind: where are the candidates today? | |
| Rick Santorum: Tennessee Noon ET: Holds a Rally for Rick, Crown College, Powell 8pm CT: Holds a Rally for Rick, Belmont University, Nashville | Rick Santorum: Tennessee Noon ET: Holds a Rally for Rick, Crown College, Powell 8pm CT: Holds a Rally for Rick, Belmont University, Nashville |
| Mitt Romney: Ohio 10am ET: Held a rally, Toledo 2.45pm ET: Holding a town hall, Capital University, Bexley | Mitt Romney: Ohio 10am ET: Held a rally, Toledo 2.45pm ET: Holding a town hall, Capital University, Bexley |
| Newt Gingrich: Georgia 1.30pm ET: Holds a rally, Peachtree Academy, Covington 7pm ET: Holds a rally, Gainesville | Newt Gingrich: Georgia 1.30pm ET: Holds a rally, Peachtree Academy, Covington 7pm ET: Holds a rally, Gainesville |
| Since candidates visit their weakest or most critical states first, this tells us a lot. But why didn't Santorum visit Ohio? | Since candidates visit their weakest or most critical states first, this tells us a lot. But why didn't Santorum visit Ohio? |
| 11.48am: Now that we are totally bored with Michigan after last night – hats off for the efficient vote counting, Michiganders – I leave you with one final Michigan-related thought. | |
| It's true that Mitt Romney racked up a huge vote total in Oakland County. But guess what? He would have won the Michigan primary even if Oakland County didn't exist. That's one to ponder for all of you "Romney can't win Ohio" folks out there. | It's true that Mitt Romney racked up a huge vote total in Oakland County. But guess what? He would have won the Michigan primary even if Oakland County didn't exist. That's one to ponder for all of you "Romney can't win Ohio" folks out there. |
| 11.30am: As somebody said yesterday, the biggest news of last night was that Olympia Snowe was stepping down from the Senate, thus dooming Republicans plans to win a majority there. | 11.30am: As somebody said yesterday, the biggest news of last night was that Olympia Snowe was stepping down from the Senate, thus dooming Republicans plans to win a majority there. |
| Here's my entirely speculative conspiracy theory: Snowe plans to join the shadowy and vaguely suspicious Americans Elect third party platform, run on a presidential ticket with washed-up former Democrat David Boren in November and hive off enough votes from Barack Obama to let the Republicans win the White House. And it's revealed – after years of investigative research by Buzzfeed Politics – that Americans Elect was a mere Super Pac smokescreen front for Foster Friess, Sheldon Adelson and Rupert Murdoch to rig the election. | Here's my entirely speculative conspiracy theory: Snowe plans to join the shadowy and vaguely suspicious Americans Elect third party platform, run on a presidential ticket with washed-up former Democrat David Boren in November and hive off enough votes from Barack Obama to let the Republicans win the White House. And it's revealed – after years of investigative research by Buzzfeed Politics – that Americans Elect was a mere Super Pac smokescreen front for Foster Friess, Sheldon Adelson and Rupert Murdoch to rig the election. |
| Pretty good, eh? Perhaps you'd like to subscribe to my newsletter. Flaw in the above reasoning: why would you go to all that effort just to elect Mitt Romney as president? | Pretty good, eh? Perhaps you'd like to subscribe to my newsletter. Flaw in the above reasoning: why would you go to all that effort just to elect Mitt Romney as president? |
| This is Richard Adams taking over live blogging duties from Tom McCarthy. Happy Leap Day, although I have yet to be visited by Leap Day William. And happy birthday Mrs Ron Paul, Carol. | This is Richard Adams taking over live blogging duties from Tom McCarthy. Happy Leap Day, although I have yet to be visited by Leap Day William. And happy birthday Mrs Ron Paul, Carol. |
| 11.12am: Eric Kleefeld of Talking Points Memo has a good breakdown of the race in Maine to get candidates up and running to replace Olympia Snowe. The deadline to get on the ballot is in two weeks and 2,000 signatures are required. | 11.12am: Eric Kleefeld of Talking Points Memo has a good breakdown of the race in Maine to get candidates up and running to replace Olympia Snowe. The deadline to get on the ballot is in two weeks and 2,000 signatures are required. |
| On the Republican side, initial speculation from GOP sources has been that the party will court state Senate President Kevin Raye, a former Snowe chief of staff who is seen as matching the typical profile for electability in the state. ... On the Democratic side, there was already a primary race going on between state Sen. Cynthia Dill, state Rep. John Hinck, and former Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap. But that could now all change, with an open seat to entice some bigger names in — namely, the state's two-member House delegation, both Democrats, Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree. | On the Republican side, initial speculation from GOP sources has been that the party will court state Senate President Kevin Raye, a former Snowe chief of staff who is seen as matching the typical profile for electability in the state. ... On the Democratic side, there was already a primary race going on between state Sen. Cynthia Dill, state Rep. John Hinck, and former Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap. But that could now all change, with an open seat to entice some bigger names in — namely, the state's two-member House delegation, both Democrats, Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree. |
| 10.43am: Final spread in Michigan remains north of 3 percent. | 10.43am: Final spread in Michigan remains north of 3 percent. |
| Final spread in MI seems to be 3.2%. i believe closest in our contest was @MelissaArie w/Romney by 3.5%. Supreme Wolverine Poobah! | Final spread in MI seems to be 3.2%. i believe closest in our contest was @MelissaArie w/Romney by 3.5%. Supreme Wolverine Poobah! |
| — Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) February 29, 2012 | — Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) February 29, 2012 |
| 10.42am: Today in politics, if today were 1968: | 10.42am: Today in politics, if today were 1968: |
| Great factoid from @detnews' Finley: "Romney's Michigan win came 44 years to the day that his father dropped his bid for the presidency." | Great factoid from @detnews' Finley: "Romney's Michigan win came 44 years to the day that his father dropped his bid for the presidency." |
| — Tim Alberta (@HotlineAlberta) February 29, 2012 | — Tim Alberta (@HotlineAlberta) February 29, 2012 |
| 10.36am: Will Republicans rally around Mitt Romney after the candidate's victory in his latest do-or-die primary, in Michigan? There's not a lot of noise being made this morning about the resilient virtues of the race's now firm front-runner. But there is a lot of talk about how the Michigan race was Rick Santorum's to lose – and he screwed it up. You can listen to conservative don Charles Krauthammer pick apart what he sees as Santorum's mistakes here. | 10.36am: Will Republicans rally around Mitt Romney after the candidate's victory in his latest do-or-die primary, in Michigan? There's not a lot of noise being made this morning about the resilient virtues of the race's now firm front-runner. But there is a lot of talk about how the Michigan race was Rick Santorum's to lose – and he screwed it up. You can listen to conservative don Charles Krauthammer pick apart what he sees as Santorum's mistakes here. |
| Krauthammer's pithy formulation of how Santorum stepped in it: "Kennedy, college and contraception." | Krauthammer's pithy formulation of how Santorum stepped in it: "Kennedy, college and contraception." |
| 10.18am: Everybody knows that Ron Paul has brokered some kind of back room deal with Mitt Romney. The Texas Rep has spent the campaign attacking the front runner's rival du jour in a transparent effort to curry favor for his son, Kentucky Rep. Rand Paul, mentioned in some circles as a possible Romney veep pick. That's certainly how Rick Santorum saw things after last week's Arizona debate. | 10.18am: Everybody knows that Ron Paul has brokered some kind of back room deal with Mitt Romney. The Texas Rep has spent the campaign attacking the front runner's rival du jour in a transparent effort to curry favor for his son, Kentucky Rep. Rand Paul, mentioned in some circles as a possible Romney veep pick. That's certainly how Rick Santorum saw things after last week's Arizona debate. |
| "You have to ask Congressman Paul and Gov. Romney what they've got going together," Santorum said. "Their commercials look a lot alike, and so do their attacks." | "You have to ask Congressman Paul and Gov. Romney what they've got going together," Santorum said. "Their commercials look a lot alike, and so do their attacks." |
| This new Ron Paul ad, then, is a little tricky to explain. It attacks Romney as a "flip-flopper" who "supported TARP bailouts" and "provided the blueprint for Obamacare." | This new Ron Paul ad, then, is a little tricky to explain. It attacks Romney as a "flip-flopper" who "supported TARP bailouts" and "provided the blueprint for Obamacare." |
| You're on your own, Rand? | You're on your own, Rand? |
| 10.04am: Sen. Olympia Snowe's announcement yesterday that she would not seek reelection set off a round of hand-wringing about the partisan bitterness of contemporary American politics. And the hand-wringers aren't wrong: Here's a video posted by Ezra Klein that plots partisanship in Congress beginning with the very first session. The liberal-conservative spectrum is plotted along the "x" axis, left to right; the vertical position of the data points represent the extremity of Congress members' stances on the most divisive issues of the day. Watch what happens after 1970. | 10.04am: Sen. Olympia Snowe's announcement yesterday that she would not seek reelection set off a round of hand-wringing about the partisan bitterness of contemporary American politics. And the hand-wringers aren't wrong: Here's a video posted by Ezra Klein that plots partisanship in Congress beginning with the very first session. The liberal-conservative spectrum is plotted along the "x" axis, left to right; the vertical position of the data points represent the extremity of Congress members' stances on the most divisive issues of the day. Watch what happens after 1970. |
| 9.52am: What comes around once every four years to correct dysfunction on the highest levels? Nope, not the presidential election. Happy Leap Day, everyone. Tom McCarthy here – this morning we'll be watching as the race for the White House reconfigures itself following last night's twin wins for Mitt Romney. National Republican chair Reince Priebus is front and center repeating the line about a drawn-out primary being good for the party. "I'm not nervous about this at all," he tells Politico. "I think the drama and the tough primary is a is a good thing for us." | 9.52am: What comes around once every four years to correct dysfunction on the highest levels? Nope, not the presidential election. Happy Leap Day, everyone. Tom McCarthy here – this morning we'll be watching as the race for the White House reconfigures itself following last night's twin wins for Mitt Romney. National Republican chair Reince Priebus is front and center repeating the line about a drawn-out primary being good for the party. "I'm not nervous about this at all," he tells Politico. "I think the drama and the tough primary is a is a good thing for us." |
| A key stat out of Michigan: Turnout was actually up from 2008, from 869,293 voters to 976,340. That 100K-plus gap is more than can be accounted for by the rogue participation of Democratic spoilers in the open primary. Is the race finally gaining some traction in the way of voter excitement? | A key stat out of Michigan: Turnout was actually up from 2008, from 869,293 voters to 976,340. That 100K-plus gap is more than can be accounted for by the rogue participation of Democratic spoilers in the open primary. Is the race finally gaining some traction in the way of voter excitement? |
| A very important announcement this morning: No less than the NFL has decided to rearrange its schedule to accommodate the election cycle. To avoid a scheduling conflict with a planned speech by Candidate Obama at the Democratic National Convention, the first game of the season now will be played on Wednesday, Sep. 5, instead of Sep. 6. It's the first time in more than 60 years that the NFL will hold a game on a Wednesday, the NY Times tells us. | A very important announcement this morning: No less than the NFL has decided to rearrange its schedule to accommodate the election cycle. To avoid a scheduling conflict with a planned speech by Candidate Obama at the Democratic National Convention, the first game of the season now will be played on Wednesday, Sep. 5, instead of Sep. 6. It's the first time in more than 60 years that the NFL will hold a game on a Wednesday, the NY Times tells us. |
| 9.16am: Here's Ryan Devereaux about last night – and with the developments in politics this morning: | 9.16am: Here's Ryan Devereaux about last night – and with the developments in politics this morning: |
| • Mitt Romney managed to pull off wins in Arizona and Michigan's primaries Tuesday. While his victory in Arizona was substantial, the former governor beat back runner-up Rick Santorum by less than four percentage points in Michigan. In Arizona, Romney was allotted all of the state's 29 delegates (the state was docked half for holding an early primary). Michigan's 30 delegates (also docked half) are awarded by district, meaning Santorum would gather nearly the same number or slightly fewer delegates than Romney. Arizona's official primary results were as follows: Romney 47.3%, Santorum 26.6%, Newt Gingrich 16.2% and Ron Paul 8.4%. And in Michigan: Romney 41.1%, Santorum 37.9%, Paul 11.6%, Gingrich 6.5%. | • Mitt Romney managed to pull off wins in Arizona and Michigan's primaries Tuesday. While his victory in Arizona was substantial, the former governor beat back runner-up Rick Santorum by less than four percentage points in Michigan. In Arizona, Romney was allotted all of the state's 29 delegates (the state was docked half for holding an early primary). Michigan's 30 delegates (also docked half) are awarded by district, meaning Santorum would gather nearly the same number or slightly fewer delegates than Romney. Arizona's official primary results were as follows: Romney 47.3%, Santorum 26.6%, Newt Gingrich 16.2% and Ron Paul 8.4%. And in Michigan: Romney 41.1%, Santorum 37.9%, Paul 11.6%, Gingrich 6.5%. |
| • Romney told an election party in Novi, Michigan that his victory was a "decisive moment". "This is a big night," said the candidate. "A week ago the pundits and the pollsters were ready to count us out." | • Romney told an election party in Novi, Michigan that his victory was a "decisive moment". "This is a big night," said the candidate. "A week ago the pundits and the pollsters were ready to count us out." |
| • Romney did particularly well among older voters, more educated voters and higher income voters. Exit polls also indicated that he won in large margins, in both states, among voters who felt that the economy was the most important issue and among those who felt the budget deficit was the most important issue. In Michigan, Santorum was more popular than Romeny among union households, Tea Party supporters, white evangelical Christians and those who consider themselves very conservative. | • Romney did particularly well among older voters, more educated voters and higher income voters. Exit polls also indicated that he won in large margins, in both states, among voters who felt that the economy was the most important issue and among those who felt the budget deficit was the most important issue. In Michigan, Santorum was more popular than Romeny among union households, Tea Party supporters, white evangelical Christians and those who consider themselves very conservative. |
| • Yesterday's contests mark the beginning of a week of battles for the Republican presidential nomination. A dozen primaries will be held over the next week and over 400 delegates will be up for grabs on Super Tuesday, March 6. | • Yesterday's contests mark the beginning of a week of battles for the Republican presidential nomination. A dozen primaries will be held over the next week and over 400 delegates will be up for grabs on Super Tuesday, March 6. |
| • Ron Paul has vowed to stay in the race and built an extensive network of supporters at caucuses over the last three months. He and Romney are the only candidates on the ballot in Virginia next week. Gingrich, meanwhile, did not actively campaign in Arizona or Michigan and is counting on a resurgence in southern state contests. | • Ron Paul has vowed to stay in the race and built an extensive network of supporters at caucuses over the last three months. He and Romney are the only candidates on the ballot in Virginia next week. Gingrich, meanwhile, did not actively campaign in Arizona or Michigan and is counting on a resurgence in southern state contests. |