Mitt Romney's decisive Michigan win won't be enough to oust Obama

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/29/mitt-romney-decisive-michigan-win

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Michigan is a state which has always tried to exert extra influence on the presidential nomination process. On Tuesday it got its way.

Four years ago, Michigan tried unsuccessfully to gatecrash the seemingly unchangeable calendar of the race to the White House by attempting to hold its primary on the same day as traditional first-in-the-field New Hampshire, arguing it was time a big swing state got a more decisive place in the race.

This year, Michigan has had to wait in line for its turn. But Mitt Romney's narrow win over Rick Santorum in Tuesday's Republican primary means that Michigan has provided the decisive result in the 2012 race, effectively guaranteeing that Romney will now get the nomination.

Romney's win was decisive. Yet it was anything but crushing. Romney took the Michigan primary with 41% to Rick Santorum's 38%, with Ron Paul on 12% and Newt Gingrich 7% after a very hard-fought contest. Not for the first time in the 2012 race, therefore, Romney won but failed to get the majority support of his party. That may be a high bar to set, but a frontrunner ought to do better in a state in which he has deep roots – and which he won in the 2008 contest with John McCain – and in which he has strong name recognition (his father George was a popular Michigan governor). In that respect, the Arizona result last night was perhaps even more significant evidence of Romney's residual weakness.

In a state in which he was the only contender to campaign widely, Romney won Arizona with only 47%. The Republican party does not love Romney yet – and perhaps it never will.

More worryingly for Romney and his party, the Michigan exit polling exposed serious weaknesses, which could shape the general election contest against Barack Obama in November. On the basis of the exit polls last night Romney has two large problems. The first is that he polled badly among self-described conservatives and Tea Party supporters. This means these voters may not rally behind him in November – and may even be interested in a more conservative third party runner, if one were to emerge (of which there is little sign, admittedly). But the second problem is that Romney did not poll well among Michigan independents or blue collar workers either. Independents split down the middle between Romney and Santorum, while union members broke strongly for Santorum. That may bode ill for Romney's ability to challenge Obama in key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan itself in November.

As of Wednesday morning, we can say that Romney is now the clearer than ever favourite to win the Republican nomination. Santorum's failure to win in Michigan, although he came close, probably marks the start of a drift back into the pack of challengers. Romney will now be favourite to clean up a lot of further states next week on "Super Tuesday" when Ohio and Virginia will be states to watch. But his party does not love him, and it will take a big turnaround in his fortunes – and the economy – for him to oust Obama in November.