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Version 1 Version 2
The French in London: Bienvenue, François Hollande? The French in London: Bienvenue, François Hollande?
(about 3 hours later)
4.32pm: I discovered another cautious Sarko-supporter downstairs, head of sales Matthieu Glasson, who came to Britain planning to stay for a few months and ended up staying rather longer – eight or nine years longer. (He blames an "English rose".)
Matthieu glasson (mp3)

He said he was not "100% sure" but he would probably cast his vote for the current resident of the Elysée on the basis of his international stature.

I think the beauty of living outside France is … you are more objective and you can see what has been done more objectively … It's more about the power of France in negotiation, in the United Nations.
The most important thing for him, he said, was for a president to be chosen who made sure that France continued to be a world power. He agreed with his colleague that Hollande's 75% tax proposal might be a turnoff for a lot of French Londoners.
Obviously a lot of them – not all of them but a lot of them – work in finance and sometimes have good bonuses and obviously that's not a law that would make them come back to France if that does happen. So maybe in London Nicolas Sarkozy might win, but it doesn't mean that he would win in France.
4.24pm: Earlier I visited the HQ of French Radio London, the French-language station that started in 2010 and has attracted 75,000 listeners a week with its blend of (mostly French) music and talk shows. Set up by long-term Londoner Pascal Grierson, it prides itself on appealing to Francophile Brits as well as French-speakers.
Olivier Jauffrit, who presents the morning programme, has been in London since 2003. He told me he could see no other candidate for France than Sarkozy, who – he thinks – could enjoy a supercharged second term without the worry of re-election.
Olivier (mp3)

(His views are his own and not those of the radio station.)

I think he [Sarkozy] did a few things: pensions [reform], for instance. I think it's not enough. I think he could do more because if he's re-elected, which he's not done yet, that will be the last time so he will have five years, whatever happens, to do things. And I can't see any other candidate for France right now.
The "Monsieur Normal" in London won't be getting his vote?
No, he won't. I'm not sure he cares, but he won't because the Socialist party in France for me is very old-fashioned … If we go back to the left party we'll go back in time.
Olivier is particularly aghast at the proposal, made on Tuesday, to tax earnings over €1m at 75%.
First of all I think it's ridiculous; I think it's a campaign thing. I'm even not sure it's feasible and we could become again the most-taxed people of the world maybe. I mean, we need rich people in France as well and I think they will leave if they do that.
1.02pm: I started the day with Dr. Philippe Marlière, who is a professor of French and European politics at UCL and has historic connections to leftwing politics in his home country, having been a member of both the Parti Socialiste and, more recently, the Nouveau Parti Anti-Capitaliste (NPA).1.02pm: I started the day with Dr. Philippe Marlière, who is a professor of French and European politics at UCL and has historic connections to leftwing politics in his home country, having been a member of both the Parti Socialiste and, more recently, the Nouveau Parti Anti-Capitaliste (NPA).
Now, however, he is a member of no political party- even if it remains clear where his allegiances lie. Now, however, he is a member of no political party – even if it remains clear where his allegiances lie.
Philippe marliere (mp3)

Over coffee at a cafe in Tufnell Park, he explained to me why he thinks the forthcoming election is very open- and nowhere more so than London. In 2007, he points out, Sarkozy beat Royal here by only a few hundred votes.

 Philippe marliere (mp3)

Over coffee at a cafe in Tufnell Park, he explained to me why he thinks the forthcoming election is very open – and nowhere more so than London. In 2007, he points out, Sarkozy beat Royal here by only a few hundred votes.


/>It's interesting to know that because in fact it was an election that was nationally won very handsomely and easily by Sarkozy. So that shows one thing : in terms of right/left balance here it's pretty close. You can't really say anymore that London is a place where you have wealthy people voting for right-wing parties. Clearly I think this forthcoming election is a very open one.		 It's interesting to know that because in fact it was an election that was nationally won very handsomely and easily by Sarkozy. So that shows one thing: in terms of right/left balance here it's pretty close. You can't really say anymore that London is a place where you have wealthy people voting for rightwing parties. Clearly I think this forthcoming election is a very open one.
Historically, the French community has veered to the right, said Marliere. But demographic changes in recent years have changed that.Historically, the French community has veered to the right, said Marliere. But demographic changes in recent years have changed that.
Traditionally the French community- and I speak 20, 30 years ago or so- was voting more for right-wing candidates and parties. I think when you look back to when I came to London some 20 years ago I think essentially 'the French abroad' meant people working in diplomacy circles and business people; later on people in the City. Traditionally the French community – and I speak 20, 30 years ago or so – was voting more for rightwing candidates and parties. I think when you look back to when I came to London some 20 years ago I think essentially 'the French abroad' meant people working in diplomacy circles and business people; later on people in the City.
Things started to change about 10-15 years ago with the flux of population- you know, younger, less wealthy people working in services, public services, education; you had also students attracted by British universities. So all in all I think has been very big changes regarding the French population living in the UK and in London.Things started to change about 10-15 years ago with the flux of population- you know, younger, less wealthy people working in services, public services, education; you had also students attracted by British universities. So all in all I think has been very big changes regarding the French population living in the UK and in London.
Hollande will probably soften his banker bashing rhetoric for the London audience, said Marliere, although it would be "suicidal" for him to appease them too much. Hollande will probably soften his banker-bashing rhetoric for the London audience, said Marliere, although it would be "suicidal" for him to appease them too much.

/>That's not what the French voting in France and also I would say a large majority of french people living in the UK expect of him. He's the candidate of the candidate of the main left, representing the left. So he's not going to say that; that would be suicidal.		 That's not what the French voting in France and also I would say a large majority of French people living in the UK expect of him. He's the candidate of the main left, representing the left. So he's not going to say that; that would be suicidal.
What he's going to say probably is tone down a little bit the criticisms about City bankers, bonuses, highly paid bankers...But on the other hand he will also stand firm on this position that things have to change. And he will also say that, in fact, we are in the situation we are in because of course bankers made major errors- they are responsible for the economic situation in the first place- but also politicians made errors. didn't act when they should have acted and didn't make the right decisions either. What he's going to say probably is tone down a little bit the criticisms about City bankers, bonuses, highly paid bankers … But on the other hand he will also stand firm on this position that things have to change. And he will also say that, in fact, we are in the situation we are in because of course bankers made major errors – they are responsible for the economic situation in the first place – but also politicians made errors, didn't act when they should have acted and didn't make the right decisions either.
10.15am: Bonjour à tous!10.15am: Bonjour à tous!
Today, to the delight of some and no doubt the derision of others, François Hollande- the erstwhile leader of the Parti Socialiste and current front-runner in the battle for the French presidency- is coming to London. He'll be lunching with Ed Miliband, categorically not lunching with David Cameron, giving a talk at King's College and generally raising his profile on this side of the Channel. Today, to the delight of some and no doubt the derision of others, François Hollande – the erstwhile leader of the Parti Socialiste and current frontrunner in the battle for the French presidency – is coming to London. He'll be lunching with Ed Miliband, categorically not lunching with David Cameron, giving a talk at King's College and generally raising his profile on this side of the Channel.
Why? Well, as anyone who has caught a whiff of croissant or crepe while strolling through South Kensington will know, there are quite a lot of French people here. Quite how many is difficult to pin-point, but the consulate reckons that anything up to 400,000 people could be resident- a figure that would mean there are more French people here than in Nantes (population roughly 283,000) or even Nice (population roughly 341,000). Why? Well, as anyone who has caught a whiff of croissant or crepe while strolling through South Kensington will know, there are quite a lot of French people here. Quite how many is difficult to pinpoint, but the consulate reckons that anything up to 400,000 people could be resident – a figure that would mean there are more French people here than in Nantes (population roughly 283,000) or even Nice (population roughly 341,000).
Wily political animal that he is, Nicolas Sarkozy realised what this could mean in electoral terms in 2007, when he paid a visit to the city of the Tamise (that's the Thames) and spoke to roaring crowds at the Old Billingsgate market. Now, it appears, his challenger for the Elysée is doing the same- and hoping for a similar recompense. Wily political animal that he is, Nicolas Sarkozy realised what this could mean in electoral terms in 2007, when he paid a visit to the city of the Tamise (that's the Thames) and spoke to roaring crowds at the Old Billingsgate market. Now, it appears, his challenger for the Elysée is doing the same – and hoping for a similar recompense.
Today, while my colleague Angelique Chrisafis hops on the Eurostar in hot pursuit of the man himself, I'll be attempting to take the pulse of the French community here in London. What do they think of Hollande, and his bid to become France's first left-wing president since François Mitterrand? Are they, like an apparently large number of their brethren back home, determined to oust Sarkozy quicker than you can say 'cuban heels and Carla Bruni'? Or are they- perish the thought- more interested in the politics of their adopted country than that of the one they left behind? Today, while my colleague Angelique Chrisafis hops on the Eurostar in hot pursuit of the man himself, I'll be attempting to take the pulse of the French community here in London. What do they think of Hollande, and his bid to become France's first leftwing president since François Mitterrand? Are they, like an apparently large number of their brethren back home, determined to oust Sarkozy quicker than you can say 'cuban heels and Carla Bruni'? Or are they – perish the thought – more interested in the politics of their adopted country than that of the one they left behind?
Join me on a leisurely stroll through London as I try to find out. If you want to get in touch, you can email me at lizzy.davies@guardian.co.uk or tweet me @lizzy_davies.Join me on a leisurely stroll through London as I try to find out. If you want to get in touch, you can email me at lizzy.davies@guardian.co.uk or tweet me @lizzy_davies.