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Michigan and Arizona Republican primary results - live Michigan and Arizona Republican primary results - live
(40 minutes later)
11.30pm: The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt sends his final report from Rick Santorum's headquarters after watching his concession speech:
According to Rick Santorum: "A month ago they didn't know who we are. They do now." Santorum might have been being overly modest with his assessment of his fame – Iowa was nearly two months ago, after all – but no one here in Grand Rapids seemed to mind.
"We came into the backyard of one of my opponents in a race that everyone said well, just ignore, you'll have really no chance here," Santorum continued. "And the people of Michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates. And all I have to say is: 'I love you back'."
But this wasn't just a speech of tubthumping platitudes. It was a speech of props, and of references to breaking free from the British, despite them "looking good" in their "crisp uniforms".
Armed with a piece of shale and a copy of the constitution, Santorum set about attacking President Obama and making his case as the Republican nominee ahead of Romney. The government made was responsible for population loss and unemployment in America, the former Pennsylvania senator said, making it "virtually impossible for us to use our natural resources". Referencing northwest North Dakota, he said people there were nervous, as they were "developing oil in private lands, but the president and the EPA is hovering".
Holding the shale aloft, Santorum continued: "Yes they're developing oil in private lands. This oil. Yeah, this is oil. Oil. Out of rock. Shale. It leeches oil. In fact the highest quality oil in the world – light sweet crude."
Santorum said people in North Dakota struggle to get investors to come there were struggling to monetise said product – "because we have a president who won't let them get their oil to market", prompting widespread boos from the crowd.
Renewing his pledge to repeal Obamacare – calling it the "biggest issue in this race", Santorum underlined his deficit credentials, saying he had "fought tooth and nail" for a balanced budget amendment. While he would work to pass that, in the meantime, Santorum said, he would "end entitlement programs at the federal level and give them back to the state", to hearty applause.
Drawing the speech to a close, Santorum showed off his copy of the constitution, describing it as "the operators' manual of America", which lead into a riff about the declaration of independence, and how the signatories of the document had "very little hope, real hope of actually succeeding in a revolution against the British".
"The British were the most powerful army in the world, and navy in the world. They were ruled by highly educated, noble people. Their uniforms were crisp and stiff. They looked good."
However despite their spruceness, the leaders of the British "ruled them from on high", Santorum said. They "didn't listen to them as they fought the revolutionary war". America's leaders were different, he continued, listening to the people and understanding that "the greatness of this country" was in their freedom. And then he was off.
11.23pm: Ewen McAskill has a full account of the brief detention of the Economist reporter, identified as the paper's Midwest correspondent, Natasha Loder.
The Romney campaign hand out two kinds of passes – one for the risers that let you into the hall where he is speaking and one for a separate and usually much larger press filing centre.
Although there was space in the hall when Romney was about to speak, security would not allow reporters in without proper accreditation. A group were standing outside the door watching from the hall when the security began to close the doors.
There was a shouting match, with American reporters also being closed out and incensed at their treatment.
Natasha from the Economist was among those protesting. A reporter who was there said she had sat down to stop the doors being closed. That is when the police cuffed her. A few minutes later, they took the cuffs off and it was all over. I think she is somewhat embarrassed about the whole thing.
11.05pm: In the rosy glow of Mitt Romney's victory in Arizona, the Guardian's Ed Pilkington even manages to chat with Cindy McCain tonight:11.05pm: In the rosy glow of Mitt Romney's victory in Arizona, the Guardian's Ed Pilkington even manages to chat with Cindy McCain tonight:
I wanted to put to her a question that has always intrigued me. Isn't she astonishingly relieved not to be on the campaign trail again this year, I mean it seems so gruelling and for the wives intolerable?I wanted to put to her a question that has always intrigued me. Isn't she astonishingly relieved not to be on the campaign trail again this year, I mean it seems so gruelling and for the wives intolerable?
"Yes, I am relieved," was her heart-felt reply. She said she was grateful to have had the experience of being with her husband as he ran for the presidency in 2008, "but it is very hard. I feel for Ann [Romney], we talk about it often.""Yes, I am relieved," was her heart-felt reply. She said she was grateful to have had the experience of being with her husband as he ran for the presidency in 2008, "but it is very hard. I feel for Ann [Romney], we talk about it often."
What's the worst part of it, I asked. "The time. Each day is 20 hours long, there's no break, and it's relentless."What's the worst part of it, I asked. "The time. Each day is 20 hours long, there's no break, and it's relentless."
And Ann Romney is doing it for the second time running, I said. That was a mistake! "I did it twice too," McCain corrected me. "In 2000 and 2008."And Ann Romney is doing it for the second time running, I said. That was a mistake! "I did it twice too," McCain corrected me. "In 2000 and 2008."
10.57pm: So that was another paint-by-numbers effort from the Big Book of Mitt Romney speeches.10.57pm: So that was another paint-by-numbers effort from the Big Book of Mitt Romney speeches.
According to my colleague Ewen MacAskill, live at the scene, there was more excitement when police briefly handcuffed a British journalist from the Economist as she was trying to watch Romney. But she was quickly released.According to my colleague Ewen MacAskill, live at the scene, there was more excitement when police briefly handcuffed a British journalist from the Economist as she was trying to watch Romney. But she was quickly released.
Maybe security had been listening to Rick Santorum's speech about the British bad guys in the revolutionary war, and were enraged at the thought of those crisp uniforms.Maybe security had been listening to Rick Santorum's speech about the British bad guys in the revolutionary war, and were enraged at the thought of those crisp uniforms.
Reporter handcuffed for trying to cover Romney speech in Novi twitter.com/tobyharnden/st…Reporter handcuffed for trying to cover Romney speech in Novi twitter.com/tobyharnden/st…
— Toby Harnden (@tobyharnden) February 29, 2012— Toby Harnden (@tobyharnden) February 29, 2012
10.47pm: Now it's Mitt Romney's turn, although first it's Ann Romney, who thanks "our wonderful surrogates – Donald Trump". Oh yes, Donald Trump.10.47pm: Now it's Mitt Romney's turn, although first it's Ann Romney, who thanks "our wonderful surrogates – Donald Trump". Oh yes, Donald Trump.
Now Romney's on his hind legs, speaking words. After brief thanks for his cast of helpers – Jan Brewer, John McCain and so on–  Mitt is quickly onto the Obama bashing.Now Romney's on his hind legs, speaking words. After brief thanks for his cast of helpers – Jan Brewer, John McCain and so on–  Mitt is quickly onto the Obama bashing.
Hilariously, Mitt Romney – who has been running for president since sometime in 2006 – is accusing Barack Obama of running for election. Um.Hilariously, Mitt Romney – who has been running for president since sometime in 2006 – is accusing Barack Obama of running for election. Um.
Anyway, the message is that everything is awful, thanks to Obama.Anyway, the message is that everything is awful, thanks to Obama.
10.44pm: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill – himself British – is not impressed by Santorum's weirdo speech:10.44pm: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill – himself British – is not impressed by Santorum's weirdo speech:
That was a terrible concession speech from Santorum. Rambling. Especially bad was his harking back to the Revolutionary days, and the battle for freedom against the British. It seems odd to me that in 2012 a politician should still be banging on about the revolution. It is not a one-off by Santorum. At his rally in Kalamazoo on Monday night, the warm-up act was a supporter reading the speech of revolutionary hero Patrick Henry – for 20 minutes.That was a terrible concession speech from Santorum. Rambling. Especially bad was his harking back to the Revolutionary days, and the battle for freedom against the British. It seems odd to me that in 2012 a politician should still be banging on about the revolution. It is not a one-off by Santorum. At his rally in Kalamazoo on Monday night, the warm-up act was a supporter reading the speech of revolutionary hero Patrick Henry – for 20 minutes.
10.34pm: Rick Santorum's speech ends on a psychedelic note: discussing the British army during the American revolution: "Their uniforms were crisp and stiff."10.34pm: Rick Santorum's speech ends on a psychedelic note: discussing the British army during the American revolution: "Their uniforms were crisp and stiff."
Totally voting for Santorum to defeat the British.Totally voting for Santorum to defeat the British.
— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) February 29, 2012— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) February 29, 2012
Ana Marie Cox forgets who her current employers are.Ana Marie Cox forgets who her current employers are.
10.27pm: It is being reported that Rick Santorum called Mitt Romney to concede Michigan before starting his speech, who has so far failed to mention that fact.10.27pm: It is being reported that Rick Santorum called Mitt Romney to concede Michigan before starting his speech, who has so far failed to mention that fact.
The NYT's Adam Nagourney explains why.The NYT's Adam Nagourney explains why.
Santorum is trying to do to Romney what Clinton did to Tsongas in NH in 1992; get out on TV 1st and make 2nd place a victory.Santorum is trying to do to Romney what Clinton did to Tsongas in NH in 1992; get out on TV 1st and make 2nd place a victory.
— adam nagourney (@adamnagourney) February 29, 2012— adam nagourney (@adamnagourney) February 29, 2012
10.19pm: And so it came to pass. NBC, Fox, ABC and the Associated Press all call Michigan for Mitt Romney as Santorum is speaking.10.19pm: And so it came to pass. NBC, Fox, ABC and the Associated Press all call Michigan for Mitt Romney as Santorum is speaking.
Now Santorum is waving a piece of shale. It's energy.Now Santorum is waving a piece of shale. It's energy.
Fox News shows a split screen of Santorum speaking and the crowd reaction to Romney's win at the Romney HQ.Fox News shows a split screen of Santorum speaking and the crowd reaction to Romney's win at the Romney HQ.
10.16pm: Rick Santorum has made the wise choice of getting up on stage and doing his post-match speech now, before the bad news is confirmed that he's a loser in Michigan. There's a danger the networks will call it while he's in mid-speech.10.16pm: Rick Santorum has made the wise choice of getting up on stage and doing his post-match speech now, before the bad news is confirmed that he's a loser in Michigan. There's a danger the networks will call it while he's in mid-speech.
Santorum is making the best of a bad job and arguing that he did pretty well in Michigan, which is true:Santorum is making the best of a bad job and arguing that he did pretty well in Michigan, which is true:
A month ago they didn't know who we are. They do now. What an absolutely great night. I am so thankful to so many people. We came to the backyard of one of my opponents in a race that everyone said just to ignore. And the people of Michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates and all I have to say is that I love them back.A month ago they didn't know who we are. They do now. What an absolutely great night. I am so thankful to so many people. We came to the backyard of one of my opponents in a race that everyone said just to ignore. And the people of Michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates and all I have to say is that I love them back.
Now he's thanking everyone. Uh oh: "This is a chance for you to get to know Rick Santorum," says Rick Santorum.Now he's thanking everyone. Uh oh: "This is a chance for you to get to know Rick Santorum," says Rick Santorum.
10.01pm: With 60% of precincts reporting in Michigan, Mitt Romney is on 40% compared with 36% for Santorum. I'm double-calling this one for Romney. Please AP, CNN et al, don't make me triple-call it. You're already looking bad.10.01pm: With 60% of precincts reporting in Michigan, Mitt Romney is on 40% compared with 36% for Santorum. I'm double-calling this one for Romney. Please AP, CNN et al, don't make me triple-call it. You're already looking bad.
9.56pm: Definitely not because no-one else wants to speak to him, John McCain grants an EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW with the Guardian's Ed Pilkington:9.56pm: Definitely not because no-one else wants to speak to him, John McCain grants an EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW with the Guardian's Ed Pilkington:
I've just had a one-to-one chat with John McCain and asked him this: If he had just one tip to give whoever wins the Republican nomination on how to defeat Barack Obama in November, what would it be?I've just had a one-to-one chat with John McCain and asked him this: If he had just one tip to give whoever wins the Republican nomination on how to defeat Barack Obama in November, what would it be?
"Go head-to-head with Obama on his record," McCain told me. "Make him answer to his record. After all, this was the man of hope and change in 2008 - so what has he actually done? That's what you've got to go at, and it's what Obama is running away from.""Go head-to-head with Obama on his record," McCain told me. "Make him answer to his record. After all, this was the man of hope and change in 2008 - so what has he actually done? That's what you've got to go at, and it's what Obama is running away from."
Fact: Ed once interviewed Sarah Palin. So he's now collected the set.Fact: Ed once interviewed Sarah Palin. So he's now collected the set.
Just heard from Romney's 2 sons matt & craig. Matt related how his dad saved him from drowning - he'd would do the same for America. CHEESYJust heard from Romney's 2 sons matt & craig. Matt related how his dad saved him from drowning - he'd would do the same for America. CHEESY
— The Guardian US (@Edpilkington) February 29, 2012— The Guardian US (@Edpilkington) February 29, 2012
9.54pm: Back in Michigan and the Mitt Romney Express is slowly pulling out of the station. Santorum needed a bigger lead to counteract the biog Detroit 'burbs vote and he didn't get enough of one to make it a fight.9.54pm: Back in Michigan and the Mitt Romney Express is slowly pulling out of the station. Santorum needed a bigger lead to counteract the biog Detroit 'burbs vote and he didn't get enough of one to make it a fight.
Romney could win this by a helathy margin, say, four or five percentage points.Romney could win this by a helathy margin, say, four or five percentage points.
The Huffington Post's Sam Stein continues the tree theme of the evening.The Huffington Post's Sam Stein continues the tree theme of the evening.
The trees, it appears, were the right height after allThe trees, it appears, were the right height after all
— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) February 29, 2012— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) February 29, 2012
It was Romney – who knows a thing or two about being wooden – who declared Michigan's trees to be "just the right height" on Friday.It was Romney – who knows a thing or two about being wooden – who declared Michigan's trees to be "just the right height" on Friday.
9.40pm: The Guardian's Ed Pilkington struggles to hear John McCain speaking at the Romney victory party in Arizona:9.40pm: The Guardian's Ed Pilkington struggles to hear John McCain speaking at the Romney victory party in Arizona:
John McCain, the guest of honour at the Mitt Romney victory party, has just been speaking to the media. Okay, here's a confession. there were so many cameras all around him that I could barely hear a word he said. A Martian who had landed here at the Hyatt hotel would think that McCain had won the presidential election in 2008.John McCain, the guest of honour at the Mitt Romney victory party, has just been speaking to the media. Okay, here's a confession. there were so many cameras all around him that I could barely hear a word he said. A Martian who had landed here at the Hyatt hotel would think that McCain had won the presidential election in 2008.
Anyway, the bit that I could catch from McCain was pretty interesting, because it was hardly the most glowing tribute that could be paid to a politician who had just won 29 electoral votes in Arizona. McCain admitted that Romney had a gaffe problem, though he said the former governor of Massachusetts' words keep getting "taken out of context". He also said that Romney "has more work to do, but he's doing it," which sounds a little bit double-headed to me.Anyway, the bit that I could catch from McCain was pretty interesting, because it was hardly the most glowing tribute that could be paid to a politician who had just won 29 electoral votes in Arizona. McCain admitted that Romney had a gaffe problem, though he said the former governor of Massachusetts' words keep getting "taken out of context". He also said that Romney "has more work to do, but he's doing it," which sounds a little bit double-headed to me.
McCain was interesting on why Michigan was so much tighter between Romney and Rick Santorum than Arizona. "In Arizona we are hurting as much as anywhere in America. There are some social conservatives here, but there concerns weren't as important as our economic woes." In Michigan, he said, social issues were more to the fore, playing to Santorum's strengths.McCain was interesting on why Michigan was so much tighter between Romney and Rick Santorum than Arizona. "In Arizona we are hurting as much as anywhere in America. There are some social conservatives here, but there concerns weren't as important as our economic woes." In Michigan, he said, social issues were more to the fore, playing to Santorum's strengths.
9.36pm: The heavy hand of the US Secret Service reaches the Guardian's Adam Gabbatt at the Rick Santorum party in Grand Rapids, where supporters are seeking divine intervention as the results point to a Romney victory.9.36pm: The heavy hand of the US Secret Service reaches the Guardian's Adam Gabbatt at the Rick Santorum party in Grand Rapids, where supporters are seeking divine intervention as the results point to a Romney victory.
Rick Santorum's secret service entourage have proved to be something of a buzz-kill already at his results party here in Grand Rapids. This reporter was innocently mingling among the 200-300 supporters here in the lavish ballroom of the Amway Grand Plaza hotel when I was told that press were not allowed out of the press area – which is mostly stationed behind the television cameras.Rick Santorum's secret service entourage have proved to be something of a buzz-kill already at his results party here in Grand Rapids. This reporter was innocently mingling among the 200-300 supporters here in the lavish ballroom of the Amway Grand Plaza hotel when I was told that press were not allowed out of the press area – which is mostly stationed behind the television cameras.
"You can stand on the edge and flag people down," said one security official."You can stand on the edge and flag people down," said one security official.
Luckily I had already grabbed a chat with Mary Lou Harig and Savina Kalinowski, standing at the edge of the crowd sipping bottled water. "I've never seen Santorum behind since I've been standing here, so he's starting out strong," said Harig, as we watched the results come in.Luckily I had already grabbed a chat with Mary Lou Harig and Savina Kalinowski, standing at the edge of the crowd sipping bottled water. "I've never seen Santorum behind since I've been standing here, so he's starting out strong," said Harig, as we watched the results come in.
The 63-year-old former school teacher and former nurse who was born, raised and refined here in Grand Rapids, added: "I'm hoping, I'm praying and I'm voting."The 63-year-old former school teacher and former nurse who was born, raised and refined here in Grand Rapids, added: "I'm hoping, I'm praying and I'm voting."
Kalinowski, 77, moved to the US aged 29, and said her support for Santorum was influenced by having lived under the shadow of the Soviet Union. "I lived in Poland in a communist country," she said. "One of the reasons we came here was for religious freedom and churches."Kalinowski, 77, moved to the US aged 29, and said her support for Santorum was influenced by having lived under the shadow of the Soviet Union. "I lived in Poland in a communist country," she said. "One of the reasons we came here was for religious freedom and churches."
Asked about Santorum's chances, Kalinowski added: "I am almost sure that he will win. So many people are praying and that can do anything. He [God] can do anything."Asked about Santorum's chances, Kalinowski added: "I am almost sure that he will win. So many people are praying and that can do anything. He [God] can do anything."
Well they can't change the fact I had already spoken to Mary Lou and Savina here, who said I was "tall" and "handsome" twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st…Well they can't change the fact I had already spoken to Mary Lou and Savina here, who said I was "tall" and "handsome" twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st…
— Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) February 29, 2012— Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) February 29, 2012
9.25pm: With 30% of the vote counted in Michigan, Romney is building a lead. He's going to win this. Dammit, I'll call it now. Take that, Wolf Blitzer.9.25pm: With 30% of the vote counted in Michigan, Romney is building a lead. He's going to win this. Dammit, I'll call it now. Take that, Wolf Blitzer.
9.24pm: More on the Snowe storm that erupted this evening, after longtime Maine Republican senator Olympia Snowe announced she was stepping down this evening.9.24pm: More on the Snowe storm that erupted this evening, after longtime Maine Republican senator Olympia Snowe announced she was stepping down this evening.
Jonathan Chait in New York magazine wonders if Snowe is poised to join Americans Elect, the vaguely creepy "bi-partisan" and well-funded outfit that is trying to back a third party run.Jonathan Chait in New York magazine wonders if Snowe is poised to join Americans Elect, the vaguely creepy "bi-partisan" and well-funded outfit that is trying to back a third party run.
9.19pm: While it's neck and neck in Michigan, in Arizona you could cut the tension with a handkerchief – a handkerchief – according to the Guardian's Ed Pilkington at the Romney election party, who sees some disturbing details in the exit polls:9.19pm: While it's neck and neck in Michigan, in Arizona you could cut the tension with a handkerchief – a handkerchief – according to the Guardian's Ed Pilkington at the Romney election party, who sees some disturbing details in the exit polls:
The polls have losed in Arizona and there's a huge cry just gone up at the Hyatt hotel in downtown Phoenix where the Romney campaign is holding its election party. CNN has just declared Arizona for Romney – revealing the biggest secret since it was disclosed that the Pope was a Catholic. The admittedly limited crowd here is holding up banners saying "Go Mitt Go" and "AZ Hearts Mitt" and other rousing slogans.The polls have losed in Arizona and there's a huge cry just gone up at the Hyatt hotel in downtown Phoenix where the Romney campaign is holding its election party. CNN has just declared Arizona for Romney – revealing the biggest secret since it was disclosed that the Pope was a Catholic. The admittedly limited crowd here is holding up banners saying "Go Mitt Go" and "AZ Hearts Mitt" and other rousing slogans.
Beyond the headline fact that Romney has taken Arizona, which we knew he would do, given that 70% of Republicans voted here early (Romney was the only candidate to be organised in the state) and that 10% are Mormons, the devil in this election will lie in the detail. So the exit polls are worth looking at closely.Beyond the headline fact that Romney has taken Arizona, which we knew he would do, given that 70% of Republicans voted here early (Romney was the only candidate to be organised in the state) and that 10% are Mormons, the devil in this election will lie in the detail. So the exit polls are worth looking at closely.
My favourite fact from them is that as many as four out of 10 Republican voters in Arizona can't stand John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate who has endorsed Mitt Romney. Why do I like that fact so much? Because McCain is about to appear at this Romney victory party as the guest of honour. Ouch!My favourite fact from them is that as many as four out of 10 Republican voters in Arizona can't stand John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate who has endorsed Mitt Romney. Why do I like that fact so much? Because McCain is about to appear at this Romney victory party as the guest of honour. Ouch!
The other fact from the exit polls that pickles me is that the proportion of Republican voters who want to see all undocumented Hispanics in Arizona rounded up, ritually humiliated and cast out penniless and naked from the state (I exaggerate only slightly) is roughly the same as the proportion who would like to see hard working Latinos given a path towards citizenship. Why do I like that fact? Because it gives the lie to Romney's disgraceful vote pandering to the Tea Parties and Republican right by talking tough on immigration and vowing to introduce a nationwide clampdown on undocumented families.The other fact from the exit polls that pickles me is that the proportion of Republican voters who want to see all undocumented Hispanics in Arizona rounded up, ritually humiliated and cast out penniless and naked from the state (I exaggerate only slightly) is roughly the same as the proportion who would like to see hard working Latinos given a path towards citizenship. Why do I like that fact? Because it gives the lie to Romney's disgraceful vote pandering to the Tea Parties and Republican right by talking tough on immigration and vowing to introduce a nationwide clampdown on undocumented families.
I also like it because the live band in front of me is performing in Spanish. Erm, perhaps someone needs to take them aside and have a quiet word...I also like it because the live band in front of me is performing in Spanish. Erm, perhaps someone needs to take them aside and have a quiet word...
9.12pm: This is only a hunch but I suspect Mitt Romney is going to pull it off in Michigan also. Look at Wayne County, which accounts for 1,200 of the state's 5,000 precincts. So far Romney is trouncing Santorum by 53% to 26%. With just 5% of the county vote total in, Romney has a 5,000 vote edge over Santorum from that one county.9.12pm: This is only a hunch but I suspect Mitt Romney is going to pull it off in Michigan also. Look at Wayne County, which accounts for 1,200 of the state's 5,000 precincts. So far Romney is trouncing Santorum by 53% to 26%. With just 5% of the county vote total in, Romney has a 5,000 vote edge over Santorum from that one county.
9.00pm: It's 9pm and all the polls are now closed in Michigan and Arizona. Surprise, surprise, CNN calls Arizona straight out of the box for Mitt Romney. Well that's that: 29 delegates for Romney, under its winner-take-all rules. 9pm: It's 9pm and all the polls are now closed in Michigan and Arizona. Surprise, surprise, CNN calls Arizona straight out of the box for Mitt Romney. Well that's that: 29 delegates for Romney, under its winner-take-all rules.
Meanwhile, Michigan isn't just too close to call, it's to close to do anything.Meanwhile, Michigan isn't just too close to call, it's to close to do anything.
So far Rick Santorum is neck and neck with Romney in Michigan but there's almost nothing in it. And until the big three counties around Detroit – Macomb, Oakland and the big one, Wayne – come in, then we won't know. I'm guessing Romney will win it but it's way too early to be confident.So far Rick Santorum is neck and neck with Romney in Michigan but there's almost nothing in it. And until the big three counties around Detroit – Macomb, Oakland and the big one, Wayne – come in, then we won't know. I'm guessing Romney will win it but it's way too early to be confident.
8.45pm: Mitt Romney's supporters aren't waiting for the result to start whinging, Ewen MacAskill hears at the Romney party tonight:8.45pm: Mitt Romney's supporters aren't waiting for the result to start whinging, Ewen MacAskill hears at the Romney party tonight:
At Mitt Romney's party outside of Detroit, Romney supporters are far from confident and are getting in their retaliation first, blaming Santorum for his robocalls to Democrats to back him. Supporter after supporter at the party is bringing this up.At Mitt Romney's party outside of Detroit, Romney supporters are far from confident and are getting in their retaliation first, blaming Santorum for his robocalls to Democrats to back him. Supporter after supporter at the party is bringing this up.
Steve Baumer, 52, from Royal Oak, Michigan, an advocate for unemployed workers, said: "I think the race is tight because Santorum has asked the Democrats to come and vote for him, an act of desperation to keep up with Romney. This is one of the few states that allows people to cross over. I would not say it is unfair. It is not breaking the rules but the state needs to look at the rules. The rules should be changed.Steve Baumer, 52, from Royal Oak, Michigan, an advocate for unemployed workers, said: "I think the race is tight because Santorum has asked the Democrats to come and vote for him, an act of desperation to keep up with Romney. This is one of the few states that allows people to cross over. I would not say it is unfair. It is not breaking the rules but the state needs to look at the rules. The rules should be changed.
"I am fairly confident Romney will win but there is always the possibility he could lose because of the Democrats.""I am fairly confident Romney will win but there is always the possibility he could lose because of the Democrats."
8.40pm: Here's Ron Paul live now – speaking in Virginia – who is also taking the chance to fill some empty air time before the results come in from Arizona and Michigan.8.40pm: Here's Ron Paul live now – speaking in Virginia – who is also taking the chance to fill some empty air time before the results come in from Arizona and Michigan.
Hurrah, he's not telling a long, rambling anecdote about cutting down a tree, a la Newt Gingrich earlier. But it's almost as bad: the evils of the Federal Reserve.Hurrah, he's not telling a long, rambling anecdote about cutting down a tree, a la Newt Gingrich earlier. But it's almost as bad: the evils of the Federal Reserve.
8.35pm: Hey, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado – this is how you count votes. It's about half an hour since polls closed and the nimble-fingered vote counters of Michigan have already reported about 6% of the vote.8.35pm: Hey, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado – this is how you count votes. It's about half an hour since polls closed and the nimble-fingered vote counters of Michigan have already reported about 6% of the vote.
Oh yeah and it's 40% to Santorum and 39% to Romney.Oh yeah and it's 40% to Santorum and 39% to Romney.
8.25pm:Some actual votes have been counted in Michigan. It's only 2% of precincts reporting, but it's Rick Santorum 42% and Mitt Romney 37%.8.25pm:Some actual votes have been counted in Michigan. It's only 2% of precincts reporting, but it's Rick Santorum 42% and Mitt Romney 37%.
Ron Paul's got 10% so far – not bad.Ron Paul's got 10% so far – not bad.
CNN says that very early reports from Oakland County – which Romney needs to win – is neck and neck between Romney and Santorum.CNN says that very early reports from Oakland County – which Romney needs to win – is neck and neck between Romney and Santorum.
But it's way too early to take anything from it just yet.But it's way too early to take anything from it just yet.
8.20pm: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is hanging out at Romney campaign headquarters in Michigan, and reading the runes from the exit polls so far:8.20pm: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is hanging out at Romney campaign headquarters in Michigan, and reading the runes from the exit polls so far:
Those exit polls look ominous for Romney. That is a high percentage of Democrats turning out, much higher than in 2008. If you assume they are mainly in it for mischief, that could tip it to Santorum. Also a lot of conservatives interviewed for the exit polls have said that social issues like abortion are a big issue, so that points to Santorum too.Those exit polls look ominous for Romney. That is a high percentage of Democrats turning out, much higher than in 2008. If you assume they are mainly in it for mischief, that could tip it to Santorum. Also a lot of conservatives interviewed for the exit polls have said that social issues like abortion are a big issue, so that points to Santorum too.
There are not many Romney staffers at his party so far in Novi, on the outskirts of Detroit. Some supporters drifiting in. Romney's remarks about 'mistakes were made' today reflect a bit of a post-mortem going on within his campaign about what has gone wrong: that is not an admission of defeat, just that they had anticipated having it all locked up by now.There are not many Romney staffers at his party so far in Novi, on the outskirts of Detroit. Some supporters drifiting in. Romney's remarks about 'mistakes were made' today reflect a bit of a post-mortem going on within his campaign about what has gone wrong: that is not an admission of defeat, just that they had anticipated having it all locked up by now.
8.15pm: Newt Gingrich is cleverly soaking up some free air time by nipping in with a speech in Georgia, where he's campaigning ahead of Super Tuesday.8.15pm: Newt Gingrich is cleverly soaking up some free air time by nipping in with a speech in Georgia, where he's campaigning ahead of Super Tuesday.
So far it's kind of tedious. He's telling a story about a tree. It's a tale of young Newt Gingrich and his friends, all college professors, making a hash out of cutting down a big tree. The point of the story seems to be: don't let Newt Gingrich cut down your tree. Even CNN has had enough.So far it's kind of tedious. He's telling a story about a tree. It's a tale of young Newt Gingrich and his friends, all college professors, making a hash out of cutting down a big tree. The point of the story seems to be: don't let Newt Gingrich cut down your tree. Even CNN has had enough.
8.10pm: Here's audio of one of those pro Rick Santorum robocalls to Democrats out in Michigan.8.10pm: Here's audio of one of those pro Rick Santorum robocalls to Democrats out in Michigan.
That comes via the helpful people at Talking Points Memo.That comes via the helpful people at Talking Points Memo.
8pm: Polls have now closed in 98.8% of Michigan.8pm: Polls have now closed in 98.8% of Michigan.
Fox News are sticking with the O'Reilly Factor for its usual schedule. Somebody will have to explain to me one day why Fox News has downplayed this Republican contest in recent weeks, with little airtime and not much live coverage. What gives?Fox News are sticking with the O'Reilly Factor for its usual schedule. Somebody will have to explain to me one day why Fox News has downplayed this Republican contest in recent weeks, with little airtime and not much live coverage. What gives?
7.50pm: Yikes! The Michigan primary has indeed been kidnapped by voters. Nate Silver reports from the exit polls:7.50pm: Yikes! The Michigan primary has indeed been kidnapped by voters. Nate Silver reports from the exit polls:
According to early-wave exit polls, 59% of voters in Michigan's primary today identified as Republican, versus 41% who said they were independents or Democrats.According to early-wave exit polls, 59% of voters in Michigan's primary today identified as Republican, versus 41% who said they were independents or Democrats.
The 41% figure is somewhat higher than most recent polls anticipated. Surveys from Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports pegged crossover turnout at 36%, American Research Group at 37% and a Mitchell Research poll at 19%.The 41% figure is somewhat higher than most recent polls anticipated. Surveys from Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports pegged crossover turnout at 36%, American Research Group at 37% and a Mitchell Research poll at 19%.
Crossover turnout was 32% in Michigan's primary in 2008, according to exit polls, when 7% of Michigan's voters said they were Democrats and 25% said they were independents.Crossover turnout was 32% in Michigan's primary in 2008, according to exit polls, when 7% of Michigan's voters said they were Democrats and 25% said they were independents.
Well there's Mitt Romney's excuse lined up: "I would have got away with it if it wasn't for you pesky Democratic kids."Well there's Mitt Romney's excuse lined up: "I would have got away with it if it wasn't for you pesky Democratic kids."
7.40pm: How close is the race in Michigan? According to all the polling pundits: very close indeed. Imagine trying to slide a silicon wafer between welded steel plates.7.40pm: How close is the race in Michigan? According to all the polling pundits: very close indeed. Imagine trying to slide a silicon wafer between welded steel plates.
Just asked Santorum if he's gonna win. Shrugged. "I'm not a pollster. We don't even have a pollster."Just asked Santorum if he's gonna win. Shrugged. "I'm not a pollster. We don't even have a pollster."
Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal:Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal:
The final round of polls in Michigan has yielded one of the closest forecasts yet for the 2012 Republican primaries. Collectively, they give Mitt Romney a laser-thin margin over Rick Santorum, one that falls well within the real-world margin of error for a primary election. Either candidate could come out on top of Michigan's popular vote tonight.The final round of polls in Michigan has yielded one of the closest forecasts yet for the 2012 Republican primaries. Collectively, they give Mitt Romney a laser-thin margin over Rick Santorum, one that falls well within the real-world margin of error for a primary election. Either candidate could come out on top of Michigan's popular vote tonight.
The New York Times's Nate Silver:The New York Times's Nate Silver:
People sometimes apply the term "tossup" a bit too broadly, using it to refer to anything close enough that they don't want to render a prediction about it.People sometimes apply the term "tossup" a bit too broadly, using it to refer to anything close enough that they don't want to render a prediction about it.
In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race – perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not.In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race – perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not.
The good news: there is still time to enter our competition to predict the outcome of the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Be quick – that poll closes at 8pm ET.The good news: there is still time to enter our competition to predict the outcome of the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Be quick – that poll closes at 8pm ET.
7.30pm: More from Adam Gabbatt in Michigan, who sees signs that Rick Santorum's appeal to Michiganers in Grand Rapids stretches beyond his conservative social views:7.30pm: More from Adam Gabbatt in Michigan, who sees signs that Rick Santorum's appeal to Michiganers in Grand Rapids stretches beyond his conservative social views:
"I voted Rick Santorum, not because I am as socially conservative as he is, but for two reasons," said Bret McLaughlin, a 57 year-old management consultant."I voted Rick Santorum, not because I am as socially conservative as he is, but for two reasons," said Bret McLaughlin, a 57 year-old management consultant.
"I moved here from Newcastle, Pennsylvania, and Rick Santorum was my senator for two years. So I know him and I trust him. The second reason is I have been deluged and barraged by phone calls from Mitt Romney of a negative nature about Mr Santorum, and it made me angry. "I moved here from New Castle, Pennsylvania, and Rick Santorum was my senator for two years. So I know him and I trust him. The second reason is I have been deluged and barraged by phone calls from Mitt Romney of a negative nature about Mr Santorum, and it made me angry.
"I'm a long-time Republican who believes in the 11th commandment that you shall not criticise other Republicans.""I'm a long-time Republican who believes in the 11th commandment that you shall not criticise other Republicans."
7.20pm: The word on the streets of Grand Rapids, Michigan, is that Rick Santorum is the one to watch tonight, according to the Guardian's Adam Gabbatt, who has his finger on the Wolverine pulse:7.20pm: The word on the streets of Grand Rapids, Michigan, is that Rick Santorum is the one to watch tonight, according to the Guardian's Adam Gabbatt, who has his finger on the Wolverine pulse:
Rick Santorum looks in a strong position in Grand Rapids, in east Michigan, if the people I've just met outside the city's Precinct 1 polling station are anything to go by. I spoke to nine people before my fingers stopped working, with all but one having voted for the former Pennsylvania senator.Rick Santorum looks in a strong position in Grand Rapids, in east Michigan, if the people I've just met outside the city's Precinct 1 polling station are anything to go by. I spoke to nine people before my fingers stopped working, with all but one having voted for the former Pennsylvania senator.
"I appreciate his views," said Cindy, 50, who declined to give her last name. "Certainly as a Christian I appreciate the fact he puts God first and would put that as a priority if he governs, because we've gotten away from that in America.""I appreciate his views," said Cindy, 50, who declined to give her last name. "Certainly as a Christian I appreciate the fact he puts God first and would put that as a priority if he governs, because we've gotten away from that in America."
Santorum has put a lot of work into the east of the state - his results party is here in Grand Rapids tonight - and it would seem to be paying off.Santorum has put a lot of work into the east of the state - his results party is here in Grand Rapids tonight - and it would seem to be paying off.
"I think he's just a normal, family guy and I just like what he says," said a woman named Mary. "He's right to life and he's strong on his convictions.""I think he's just a normal, family guy and I just like what he says," said a woman named Mary. "He's right to life and he's strong on his convictions."
A woman who had just voted Santorum and was now "dashing off to meet her husband" told me as we crossed the car park: "I just need a conservative president and I'm hoping he has a very good chance."A woman who had just voted Santorum and was now "dashing off to meet her husband" told me as we crossed the car park: "I just need a conservative president and I'm hoping he has a very good chance."
The one person I spoke to who did not vote for Santorum, Mark Zacha, had plumped for Mitt Romney. "I think he has the best chance of beating President Obama," said Zacha, a 52-year-old business owner who said Santorum was "too right wing". "He's way too conservative in social issues."The one person I spoke to who did not vote for Santorum, Mark Zacha, had plumped for Mitt Romney. "I think he has the best chance of beating President Obama," said Zacha, a 52-year-old business owner who said Santorum was "too right wing". "He's way too conservative in social issues."
7.15pm: If Santorum wins Michigan that will be a trifecta of woe for the Republican party in the space of a few hours:7.15pm: If Santorum wins Michigan that will be a trifecta of woe for the Republican party in the space of a few hours:
1. An extended, bloody presidential primary and internal civil war1. An extended, bloody presidential primary and internal civil war
2. Olympia Snowe steps down, most probably costing the GOP a Senate seat2. Olympia Snowe steps down, most probably costing the GOP a Senate seat
3. The Dow Jones index closed above 13,000 for the first time since the financial crisis struck in 20083. The Dow Jones index closed above 13,000 for the first time since the financial crisis struck in 2008
Barack Obama may well celebrate with a quick Marlboro Silver on the Truman balcony tonight.Barack Obama may well celebrate with a quick Marlboro Silver on the Truman balcony tonight.
7.10pm: Exit polls from Michigan! And so far they tell us ... not very much.7.10pm: Exit polls from Michigan! And so far they tell us ... not very much.
So 33% of voters say "beating Obama" is the best quality in a candidate, 23% say "strong moral character", 22% say "experience" and 15% say "true conservative". So that tends to favour Romney, assuming he's the Obama-beating, experienced candidate.So 33% of voters say "beating Obama" is the best quality in a candidate, 23% say "strong moral character", 22% say "experience" and 15% say "true conservative". So that tends to favour Romney, assuming he's the Obama-beating, experienced candidate.
Also: Santorum is spanking Romney amongst evangelical and religious-orientated voters. Not literally, obviously.Also: Santorum is spanking Romney amongst evangelical and religious-orientated voters. Not literally, obviously.
In Arizona: late deciders backed Rick Santorum over Romney by 40%-33%. But who cares? If he gets a similar swing in Michigan, Santorum is doing well.In Arizona: late deciders backed Rick Santorum over Romney by 40%-33%. But who cares? If he gets a similar swing in Michigan, Santorum is doing well.
7.05pm: The answer to the question of who wins Michigan is the central question of the night. Here's what the four candidates will be looking for for a path to victory:7.05pm: The answer to the question of who wins Michigan is the central question of the night. Here's what the four candidates will be looking for for a path to victory:
• Mitt Romney: in his boyhood home state, the Republican frontrunner and favourite to win the nomination will be looking to the vote-rich Detroit suburbs in the east to provide him with a winning margin. The wealthy Detroit metro regions, especially Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, are where Romney needs to sprint past Santorum and amass a big enough total to hold off the results from the less favourable, more rural parts of the state. Romney is also said to have a big advantage among absentee voters, who may make up around one in four of the total number of votes cast.• Mitt Romney: in his boyhood home state, the Republican frontrunner and favourite to win the nomination will be looking to the vote-rich Detroit suburbs in the east to provide him with a winning margin. The wealthy Detroit metro regions, especially Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, are where Romney needs to sprint past Santorum and amass a big enough total to hold off the results from the less favourable, more rural parts of the state. Romney is also said to have a big advantage among absentee voters, who may make up around one in four of the total number of votes cast.
• Rick Santorum: he will be looking to milk the more reliably Republican and conservative areas around Grand Rapids in the western half of the state, and the rural areas that are sparsely populated but home to many evangalical Christians who are more likely to back Santorum. In Detroit, Santorum may have hopes of winning a small but helpful number of Democrat party switchers, the targets of his controversial robocall.• Rick Santorum: he will be looking to milk the more reliably Republican and conservative areas around Grand Rapids in the western half of the state, and the rural areas that are sparsely populated but home to many evangalical Christians who are more likely to back Santorum. In Detroit, Santorum may have hopes of winning a small but helpful number of Democrat party switchers, the targets of his controversial robocall.
• Ron Paul: has no hope of winning the state but may be able to pick up a few delegates by winning some of the heavily Democratic-leaning districts where there are few Republican voters and little in the way of organisation.• Ron Paul: has no hope of winning the state but may be able to pick up a few delegates by winning some of the heavily Democratic-leaning districts where there are few Republican voters and little in the way of organisation.
• Newt Gingrich: has spent almost no time and certainly no money in the state. Presumably he wants a bloody draw between Santorum and Romney, splitting the state's delegates, and has instead been engaged in preparing for the states that will vote on Super Tuesday in a week's time.• Newt Gingrich: has spent almost no time and certainly no money in the state. Presumably he wants a bloody draw between Santorum and Romney, splitting the state's delegates, and has instead been engaged in preparing for the states that will vote on Super Tuesday in a week's time.
7pm: Welcome to live coverage of the Republican presidential primaries in Arizona and Michigan – with the result in Michigan poised on a knife-edge between rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.7pm: Welcome to live coverage of the Republican presidential primaries in Arizona and Michigan – with the result in Michigan poised on a knife-edge between rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
In the final hours the battle between the two degenerated into a slanging match, with Romney accusing Santorum of dirty tricks, and Santorum responding by labeling Romney a whining bully.In the final hours the battle between the two degenerated into a slanging match, with Romney accusing Santorum of dirty tricks, and Santorum responding by labeling Romney a whining bully.
Here's what's at stake tonight:Here's what's at stake tonight:
• Arizona: polls close at 9pm ET (2am GMT) and the result is likely to be called by the US networks shortly afterwards for Mitt Romney. The state's 29 delegates to the Republican national convention will be awarded en bloc to the winner, so it doesn't matter how big Romney's margin of victory is. And it promises to be a large margin, since the other three candidates have barely competed in the state.• Arizona: polls close at 9pm ET (2am GMT) and the result is likely to be called by the US networks shortly afterwards for Mitt Romney. The state's 29 delegates to the Republican national convention will be awarded en bloc to the winner, so it doesn't matter how big Romney's margin of victory is. And it promises to be a large margin, since the other three candidates have barely competed in the state.
• Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in the bulk of the state (a tiny proportion – 64 out of Michigan's 5,223 precincts – are in counties on Central Time where polls close at 9pm ET). Because all the evidence is that this will be a very tight race between Santorum and Romney, the networks are unlikely to declare a winner until a hefty proportion of votes have been counted. So it may not be until well after 10pm ET before a result is announced. To complicate matters, nearly all of Michigan's 30 delegates are awarded to the winner of individual congressional districts.• Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in the bulk of the state (a tiny proportion – 64 out of Michigan's 5,223 precincts – are in counties on Central Time where polls close at 9pm ET). Because all the evidence is that this will be a very tight race between Santorum and Romney, the networks are unlikely to declare a winner until a hefty proportion of votes have been counted. So it may not be until well after 10pm ET before a result is announced. To complicate matters, nearly all of Michigan's 30 delegates are awarded to the winner of individual congressional districts.
And make no mistake: all of the recent polls out of the Great Lakes State show Romney and Santorum separated by just a few percentage points. As we have already seen in Iowa and Colorado, close contests mean late nights.And make no mistake: all of the recent polls out of the Great Lakes State show Romney and Santorum separated by just a few percentage points. As we have already seen in Iowa and Colorado, close contests mean late nights.
We'll be following all the twists and turns here throughout the night, with input from the Guardian's correspondents in the field in Michigan and Arizona, as well as the cream of the internet, and help from you, the reader, who can join in on the fun in the comments section below.We'll be following all the twists and turns here throughout the night, with input from the Guardian's correspondents in the field in Michigan and Arizona, as well as the cream of the internet, and help from you, the reader, who can join in on the fun in the comments section below.
And remember: you have an hour to enter our forecasting competition. Just predict the order of finishing in tonight's two primaries to win prizes and a boost to self-esteem.And remember: you have an hour to enter our forecasting competition. Just predict the order of finishing in tonight's two primaries to win prizes and a boost to self-esteem.