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| Michigan and Arizona primary results - live | Michigan and Arizona primary results - live |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 8.25pm: And some actual votes have been counted in Michigan. It's only 2% of precincts reporting, but it's Rick Santorum 42% and Mitt Romney 37%. | |
| Ron Paul's got 10% so far – not bad. | |
| CNN says that very early reports from Oakland County – which Romney needs to win – is neck and neck between Romney and Santorum. | |
| But this is all way to early to take anything from just yet. | |
| 8.20pm: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is hanging out at Romney campaign headquarters in Michigan, and reading the runes from the exit polls so far: | |
| Those exit polls look ominous for Romney. That is a high percentage of Democrats turning out, much higher than in 2008. If you assume they are mainly in it for mischief, that could tip it to Santorum. Also a lot of conservatives interviewed for the exit polls have said that social issues like abortion are a big issue, so that points to Santorum too. | |
| There are not many Romney staffers at his party so far in Novi, on the outskirts of Detroit. Some supporters drifiting in. Romney's remarks about 'mistakes were made' today reflect a bit of a post-mortem going on within his campaign about what has gone wrong: that is not an admission of defeat, just that they had anticipated having it all locked up by now. | |
| 8.15pm: Newt Gingrich is cleverly soaking up some free air time by nipping in with a speech in Georgia, where he's campaigning ahead of Super Tuesday. | |
| So far it's kind of tedious. He's telling a story about a tree. It's a tale of young Newt Gingrich and his friends, all college professors, making a hash out of cutting down a big tree. The point of the story seems to be: don't let Newt Gingrich cut down your tree. Even CNN has had enough. | |
| 8.10pm: Here's audio of one of those pro Rick Santorum robocalls to Democrats out in Michigan. | |
| That comes via the helpful people at Talking Points Memo. | |
| 8pm: Polls have now closed in 98.8% of Michigan. | |
| Fox News are sticking with the O'Reilly Factor for its usual schedule. Somebody will have to explain to me one day why Fox News has downplayed this Republican contest in recent weeks, with little airtime and not much live coverage. What gives? | |
| 7.50pm: Yikes! The Michigan primary has indeed been kidnapped by voters. Nate Silver reports from the exit polls: | 7.50pm: Yikes! The Michigan primary has indeed been kidnapped by voters. Nate Silver reports from the exit polls: |
| According to early-wave exit polls, 59% of voters in Michigan's primary today identified as Republican, versus 41% who said they were independents or Democrats. | According to early-wave exit polls, 59% of voters in Michigan's primary today identified as Republican, versus 41% who said they were independents or Democrats. |
| The 41% figure is somewhat higher than most recent polls anticipated. Surveys from Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports pegged crossover turnout at 36%, American Research Group at 37% and a Mitchell Research poll at 19%. | The 41% figure is somewhat higher than most recent polls anticipated. Surveys from Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports pegged crossover turnout at 36%, American Research Group at 37% and a Mitchell Research poll at 19%. |
| Crossover turnout was 32% in Michigan's primary in 2008, according to exit polls, when 7% of Michigan's voters said they were Democrats and 25% said they were independents. | Crossover turnout was 32% in Michigan's primary in 2008, according to exit polls, when 7% of Michigan's voters said they were Democrats and 25% said they were independents. |
| Well there's Mitt Romney's excuse lined up: "I would have got away with it if it wasn't for you pesky Democratic kids." | Well there's Mitt Romney's excuse lined up: "I would have got away with it if it wasn't for you pesky Democratic kids." |
| 7.40pm: How close is the race in Michigan? According to all the polling pundits: very close indeed. Imagine trying to slide a silicon wafer between welded steel plates. | 7.40pm: How close is the race in Michigan? According to all the polling pundits: very close indeed. Imagine trying to slide a silicon wafer between welded steel plates. |
| Just asked Santorum if he's gonna win. Shrugged. "I'm not a pollster. We don't even have a pollster." | Just asked Santorum if he's gonna win. Shrugged. "I'm not a pollster. We don't even have a pollster." |
| Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal: | Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal: |
| The final round of polls in Michigan has yielded one of the closest forecasts yet for the 2012 Republican primaries. Collectively, they give Mitt Romney a laser-thin margin over Rick Santorum, one that falls well within the real-world margin of error for a primary election. Either candidate could come out on top of Michigan's popular vote tonight. | The final round of polls in Michigan has yielded one of the closest forecasts yet for the 2012 Republican primaries. Collectively, they give Mitt Romney a laser-thin margin over Rick Santorum, one that falls well within the real-world margin of error for a primary election. Either candidate could come out on top of Michigan's popular vote tonight. |
| The New York Times's Nate Silver: | The New York Times's Nate Silver: |
| People sometimes apply the term "tossup" a bit too broadly, using it to refer to anything close enough that they don't want to render a prediction about it. | People sometimes apply the term "tossup" a bit too broadly, using it to refer to anything close enough that they don't want to render a prediction about it. |
| In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race – perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not. | In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race – perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not. |
| The good news: there is still time to enter our competition to predict the outcome of the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Be quick – that poll closes at 8pm ET. | The good news: there is still time to enter our competition to predict the outcome of the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Be quick – that poll closes at 8pm ET. |
| 7.30pm: More from Adam Gabbatt in Michigan, who sees signs that Rick Santorum's appeal to Michiganers in Grand Rapids stretches beyond his conservative social views: | 7.30pm: More from Adam Gabbatt in Michigan, who sees signs that Rick Santorum's appeal to Michiganers in Grand Rapids stretches beyond his conservative social views: |
| "I voted Rick Santorum, not because I am as socially conservative as he is, but for two reasons," said Bret McLaughlin, a 57 year-old management consultant. | "I voted Rick Santorum, not because I am as socially conservative as he is, but for two reasons," said Bret McLaughlin, a 57 year-old management consultant. |
| "I moved here from Newcastle, Pennsylvania, and Rick Santorum was my senator for two years. So I know him and I trust him. The second reason is I have been deluged and barraged by phone calls from Mitt Romney of a negative nature about Mr Santorum, and it made me angry. | "I moved here from Newcastle, Pennsylvania, and Rick Santorum was my senator for two years. So I know him and I trust him. The second reason is I have been deluged and barraged by phone calls from Mitt Romney of a negative nature about Mr Santorum, and it made me angry. |
| "I'm a long-time Republican who believes in the 11th commandment that you shall not criticise other Republicans." | "I'm a long-time Republican who believes in the 11th commandment that you shall not criticise other Republicans." |
| 7.20pm: The word on the streets of Grand Rapids, Michigan, is that Rick Santorum is the one to watch tonight, according to the Guardian's Adam Gabbatt, who has his finger on the Wolverine pulse: | 7.20pm: The word on the streets of Grand Rapids, Michigan, is that Rick Santorum is the one to watch tonight, according to the Guardian's Adam Gabbatt, who has his finger on the Wolverine pulse: |
| Rick Santorum looks in a strong position in Grand Rapids, in east Michigan, if the people I've just met outside the city's Precinct 1 polling station are anything to go by. I spoke to nine people before my fingers stopped working, with all but one having voted for the former Pennsylvania senator. | Rick Santorum looks in a strong position in Grand Rapids, in east Michigan, if the people I've just met outside the city's Precinct 1 polling station are anything to go by. I spoke to nine people before my fingers stopped working, with all but one having voted for the former Pennsylvania senator. |
| "I appreciate his views," said Cindy, 50, who declined to give her last name. "Certainly as a Christian I appreciate the fact he puts God first and would put that as a priority if he governs, because we've gotten away from that in America." | "I appreciate his views," said Cindy, 50, who declined to give her last name. "Certainly as a Christian I appreciate the fact he puts God first and would put that as a priority if he governs, because we've gotten away from that in America." |
| Santorum has put a lot of work into the east of the state - his results party is here in Grand Rapids tonight - and it would seem to be paying off. | Santorum has put a lot of work into the east of the state - his results party is here in Grand Rapids tonight - and it would seem to be paying off. |
| "I think he's just a normal, family guy and I just like what he says," said a woman named Mary. "He's right to life and he's strong on his convictions." | "I think he's just a normal, family guy and I just like what he says," said a woman named Mary. "He's right to life and he's strong on his convictions." |
| A woman who had just voted Santorum and was now "dashing off to meet her husband" told me as we crossed the car park: "I just need a conservative president and I'm hoping he has a very good chance." | A woman who had just voted Santorum and was now "dashing off to meet her husband" told me as we crossed the car park: "I just need a conservative president and I'm hoping he has a very good chance." |
| The one person I spoke to who did not vote for Santorum, Mark Zacha, had plumped for Mitt Romney. "I think he has the best chance of beating President Obama," said Zacha, a 52-year-old business owner who said Santorum was "too right wing". "He's way too conservative in social issues." | The one person I spoke to who did not vote for Santorum, Mark Zacha, had plumped for Mitt Romney. "I think he has the best chance of beating President Obama," said Zacha, a 52-year-old business owner who said Santorum was "too right wing". "He's way too conservative in social issues." |
| 7.15pm: If Santorum wins Michigan that will be a trifecta of woe for the Republican party in the space of a few hours: | 7.15pm: If Santorum wins Michigan that will be a trifecta of woe for the Republican party in the space of a few hours: |
| 1. An extended, bloody presidential primary and internal civil war | 1. An extended, bloody presidential primary and internal civil war |
| 2. Olympia Snowe steps down, most probably costing the GOP a Senate seat | 2. Olympia Snowe steps down, most probably costing the GOP a Senate seat |
| 3. The Dow Jones index closed above 13,000 for the first time since the financial crisis struck in 2008 | 3. The Dow Jones index closed above 13,000 for the first time since the financial crisis struck in 2008 |
| Barack Obama may well celebrate with a quick Marlboro Silver on the Truman balcony tonight. | Barack Obama may well celebrate with a quick Marlboro Silver on the Truman balcony tonight. |
| 7.10pm: Exit polls from Michigan! And so far they tell us ... not very much. | 7.10pm: Exit polls from Michigan! And so far they tell us ... not very much. |
| So 33% of voters say "beating Obama" is the best quality in a candidate, 23% say "strong moral character", 22% say "experience" and 15% say "true conservative". So that tends to favour Romney, assuming he's the Obama-beating, experienced candidate. | So 33% of voters say "beating Obama" is the best quality in a candidate, 23% say "strong moral character", 22% say "experience" and 15% say "true conservative". So that tends to favour Romney, assuming he's the Obama-beating, experienced candidate. |
| Also: Santorum is spanking Romney amongst evangelical and religious-orientated voters. Not literally, obviously. | Also: Santorum is spanking Romney amongst evangelical and religious-orientated voters. Not literally, obviously. |
| In Arizona: late deciders backed Rick Santorum over Romney by 40%-33%. But who cares? If he gets a similar swing in Michigan, Santorum is doing well. | In Arizona: late deciders backed Rick Santorum over Romney by 40%-33%. But who cares? If he gets a similar swing in Michigan, Santorum is doing well. |
| 7.05pm: The answer to the question of who wins Michigan is the central question of the night. Here's what the four candidates will be looking for for a path to victory: | 7.05pm: The answer to the question of who wins Michigan is the central question of the night. Here's what the four candidates will be looking for for a path to victory: |
| • Mitt Romney: in his boyhood home state, the Republican frontrunner and favourite to win the nomination will be looking to the vote-rich Detroit suburbs in the east to provide him with a winning margin. The wealthy Detroit metro regions, especially Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, are where Romney needs to sprint past Santorum and amass a big enough total to hold off the results from the less favourable, more rural parts of the state. Romney is also said to have a big advantage among absentee voters, who may make up around one in four of the total number of votes cast. | • Mitt Romney: in his boyhood home state, the Republican frontrunner and favourite to win the nomination will be looking to the vote-rich Detroit suburbs in the east to provide him with a winning margin. The wealthy Detroit metro regions, especially Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, are where Romney needs to sprint past Santorum and amass a big enough total to hold off the results from the less favourable, more rural parts of the state. Romney is also said to have a big advantage among absentee voters, who may make up around one in four of the total number of votes cast. |
| • Rick Santorum: he will be looking to milk the more reliably Republican and conservative areas around Grand Rapids in the western half of the state, and the rural areas that are sparsely populated but home to many evangalical Christians who are more likely to back Santorum. In Detroit, Santorum may have hopes of winning a small but helpful number of Democrat party switchers, the targets of his controversial robocall. | • Rick Santorum: he will be looking to milk the more reliably Republican and conservative areas around Grand Rapids in the western half of the state, and the rural areas that are sparsely populated but home to many evangalical Christians who are more likely to back Santorum. In Detroit, Santorum may have hopes of winning a small but helpful number of Democrat party switchers, the targets of his controversial robocall. |
| • Ron Paul: has no hope of winning the state but may be able to pick up a few delegates by winning some of the heavily Democratic-leaning districts where there are few Republican voters and little in the way of organisation. | • Ron Paul: has no hope of winning the state but may be able to pick up a few delegates by winning some of the heavily Democratic-leaning districts where there are few Republican voters and little in the way of organisation. |
| • Newt Gingrich: has spent almost no time and certainly no money in the state. Presumably he wants a bloody draw between Santorum and Romney, splitting the state's delegates, and has instead been engaged in preparing for the states that will vote on Super Tuesday in a week's time. | • Newt Gingrich: has spent almost no time and certainly no money in the state. Presumably he wants a bloody draw between Santorum and Romney, splitting the state's delegates, and has instead been engaged in preparing for the states that will vote on Super Tuesday in a week's time. |
| 7pm: Welcome to live coverage of the Republican presidential primaries in Arizona and Michigan – with the result in Michigan poised on a knife-edge between rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. | 7pm: Welcome to live coverage of the Republican presidential primaries in Arizona and Michigan – with the result in Michigan poised on a knife-edge between rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. |
| In the final hours the battle between the two degenerated into a slanging match, with Romney accusing Santorum of dirty tricks, and Santorum responding by labeling Romney a whining bully. | In the final hours the battle between the two degenerated into a slanging match, with Romney accusing Santorum of dirty tricks, and Santorum responding by labeling Romney a whining bully. |
| Here's what's at stake tonight: | Here's what's at stake tonight: |
| • Arizona: polls close at 9pm ET (2am GMT) and the result is likely to be called by the US networks shortly afterwards for Mitt Romney. The state's 29 delegates to the Republican national convention will be awarded en bloc to the winner, so it doesn't matter how big Romney's margin of victory is. And it promises to be a large margin, since the other three candidates have barely competed in the state. | • Arizona: polls close at 9pm ET (2am GMT) and the result is likely to be called by the US networks shortly afterwards for Mitt Romney. The state's 29 delegates to the Republican national convention will be awarded en bloc to the winner, so it doesn't matter how big Romney's margin of victory is. And it promises to be a large margin, since the other three candidates have barely competed in the state. |
| • Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in the bulk of the state (a tiny proportion – 64 out of Michigan's 5,223 precincts – are in counties on Central Time where polls close at 9pm ET). Because all the evidence is that this will be a very tight race between Santorum and Romney, the networks are unlikely to declare a winner until a hefty proportion of votes have been counted. So it may not be until well after 10pm ET before a result is announced. To complicate matters, nearly all of Michigan's 30 delegates are awarded to the winner of individual congressional districts. | • Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in the bulk of the state (a tiny proportion – 64 out of Michigan's 5,223 precincts – are in counties on Central Time where polls close at 9pm ET). Because all the evidence is that this will be a very tight race between Santorum and Romney, the networks are unlikely to declare a winner until a hefty proportion of votes have been counted. So it may not be until well after 10pm ET before a result is announced. To complicate matters, nearly all of Michigan's 30 delegates are awarded to the winner of individual congressional districts. |
| And make no mistake: all of the recent polls out of the Great Lakes State show Romney and Santorum separated by just a few percentage points. As we have already seen in Iowa and Colorado, close contests mean late nights. | And make no mistake: all of the recent polls out of the Great Lakes State show Romney and Santorum separated by just a few percentage points. As we have already seen in Iowa and Colorado, close contests mean late nights. |
| We'll be following all the twists and turns here throughout the night, with input from the Guardian's correspondents in the field in Michigan and Arizona, as well as the cream of the internet, and help from you, the reader, who can join in on the fun in the comments section below. | We'll be following all the twists and turns here throughout the night, with input from the Guardian's correspondents in the field in Michigan and Arizona, as well as the cream of the internet, and help from you, the reader, who can join in on the fun in the comments section below. |
| And remember: you have an hour to enter our forecasting competition. Just predict the order of finishing in tonight's two primaries to win prizes and a boost to self-esteem. | And remember: you have an hour to enter our forecasting competition. Just predict the order of finishing in tonight's two primaries to win prizes and a boost to self-esteem. |