What are US hopes for Pakistan?

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By Ilyas Khan BBC News, Karachi

The US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian affairs, Richard Boucher, has spent three days in Pakistan meeting government officials, election authorities and opposition politicians.

John Negroponte gets to grips with Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri

His arrival was preceded by well publicised comments from the US Department of State on the elections in Pakistan due later in the year.

And now Mr Boucher has been joined in Pakistan by the US Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte.

The US visits come in the wake of a deepening political crisis in Pakistan, but the government here is trying to play down their significance.

The reasons may not be too hard to find.

'Keep your word'

On Wednesday, Mr Boucher told Pakistani opposition leaders in Islamabad that the US was "pressuring" military ruler President Musharraf to "fulfil the promises" he made regarding his re-election.

A day earlier, the US Department of State had elaborated on those "promises".

The US is worried about who might succeed Gen Musharraf

"There are going to be some important elections coming up in the fall time for a parliament. The parliament will then choose who will be Pakistan's next president," spokesman Sean McCormack told a State Department briefing on Tuesday.

In other words, parliamentary elections come first.

That's what the opposition in Pakistan believe is constitutionally correct. And it's also what they want because they believe the next parliament will be far less sympathetic to Gen Musharraf, thus putting his re-election in doubt.

This American understanding of the sequence of events contrasts with recent statements emanating from Gen Musharraf's camp that he would be re-elected by the present parliament, before its term expires in the autumn.

'Honour commitments'

Another point of departure between the two is General Musharraf's avowed desire to remain president as well as army chief for another five year term.

It is a part of the US understanding of Gen Musharraf that he only accepts suggestions under pressure Tanvir Ahmad KhanPolitical analyst

Sean McCormack said Gen Musharraf had already pledged that if he "continues in political life", he will "put aside the uniform". "We take him at his word at that, and we would expect him to follow through on his commitments," he said.

Do these remarks signal a change in the US policy towards Gen Musharraf and Pakistan?

Most political circles in Pakistan tend to answer in the affirmative.

"It is an important statement; it is carefully worded and comes on the day Mr Boucher embarked on his visit," says Farhatullah Babar, a former journalist and official spokesman of the opposition Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

They also consider Mr Boucher's meeting with opposition politicians and the election commission officials in Islamabad and Quetta as significant.

But political analysts believe the US State Department comments and Mr Boucher's activities in Pakistan merely reflect some policy readjustments in view of the changing ground realities of the country.

'Military dictator'

"There has been a fundamental dichotomy between the aims of the Bush administration and the perceptions of the American civil society," says analyst and former diplomat, Tanvir Ahmad Khan.

"While the US administration defends its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a campaign for democracy, the civil society is increasingly seeing it as propping up a military dictator in Pakistan."

The opposition in Pakistan has renewed confidence

Much of this new perception is due to Gen Musharraf's failure to resolve the crisis caused by his attempts to sack the chief justice of the Supreme Court in March.

That has provoked a rare wave of opposition unity.

Fingers are pointed at Gen Musharraf's allies in Karachi who stand accused of starting the rioting one weekend in May that left 41 people dead.

Furthermore, Gen Musharraf's subsequent attempts to crack down on media have gone down badly in the US.

'Narrow this gap'

The fear in Washington is that if Gen Musharraf is toppled by a military coup, or by the Islamists, or gives in to other political pressure and steps down, then the next government may be hostile to Washington.

Over the last few months, the US Congress has been pushing for tougher legislation to regulate military ties with Pakistan, while influential sections of the US media and think-tanks have been asking the administration to distance itself from Gen Musharraf.

"The US administration now feels the need to narrow this gap," says Tanvir Ahmad Khan.

The suspension of the chief justice has united the president's opponents

But analysts do not expect the US to abandon Gen Musharraf altogether.

"The 'war on terror' still remains the main priority with the US administration" says another former diplomat and analyst, Najmuddin Shaikh.

"They know it cannot be fought successfully without the help of the Pakistan army."

In order to achieve this goal, the US would be "loathe to help scale down Pakistan army's political powers to the level of the armies in democratic countries," he says.

So what role do the Americans have in mind for Gen Musharraf given the current turbulent times in Pakistan?

Analysts believe the US would like Gen Musharraf to survive the crisis by broadening his power base.

"We cannot rule out efforts by the US administration to somehow bring the PPP chief, Benazir Bhutto, closer to Musharraf in a future government, which will give the system a popular base and still keep it geared for the 'war on terror'," says Mr Shaikh.

The PPP has been showing signs that it may offer Gen Musharraf a power sharing arrangement, and ultimately an 'exit strategy'.

But its leaders have publicly stated that they cannot accept President Musharraf staying on as head of the army. Nor can they accept him calling presidential elections before parliamentary elections.

Analysts believe the US State Department's comments, and Richard Boucher's activities in Pakistan suggest that the US may be aiming for a rapprochement that presupposes a weakened Gen Musharraf and a broader power sharing arrangement.

And they are doing it the only way they know.

As Mr Khan puts it, "It is a part of the US understanding of Gen Musharraf that he only accepts suggestions under pressure."