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War-torn Iraq 'facing collapse' War-torn Iraq 'facing collapse'
(10 minutes later)
The British foreign policy think-tank Chatham House is warning that Iraq faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation. Iraq faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation, British foreign policy think tank Chatham House has warned.
The report says the Iraqi government is now largely powerless and irrelevant in many parts of the country.The report says the Iraqi government is now largely powerless and irrelevant in many parts of the country.
It says there is not one civil war, but many local civil wars involving several organisations struggling for power.It says there is not one civil war, but many local civil wars involving several organisations struggling for power.
The report urges a radical change in American and British strategy in Iraq to rescue the situation. The report urges a radical change in US and British strategy in Iraq to rescue the situation.
'Harsh realities''Harsh realities'
It is not the first time that the Royal Institute for International Affairs - a highly respected foreign policy institution in London known as Chatham House - has been critical of American and British strategies in Iraq.It is not the first time that the Royal Institute for International Affairs - a highly respected foreign policy institution in London known as Chatham House - has been critical of American and British strategies in Iraq.
This latest paper, written by Gareth Stansfield, a Middle East expert, is unremittingly bleak.This latest paper, written by Gareth Stansfield, a Middle East expert, is unremittingly bleak.
Mr Stansfield, of Exeter University and Chatham House, argues that the break-up of Iraq is becoming increasingly likely.Mr Stansfield, of Exeter University and Chatham House, argues that the break-up of Iraq is becoming increasingly likely.
There is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power Chatham House report on IraqThere is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power Chatham House report on Iraq
In large parts of the country, the Iraqi government is powerless, he says, as rival factions struggle for local supremacy.In large parts of the country, the Iraqi government is powerless, he says, as rival factions struggle for local supremacy.
The briefing paper, entitled "Accepting Realities in Iraq", argues that: "There is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power."The briefing paper, entitled "Accepting Realities in Iraq", argues that: "There is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power."
Mr Stansfield says that although al-Qaeda is challenged in some areas by local leaders who do not welcome such intervention, there is a clear momentum behind its activity.Mr Stansfield says that although al-Qaeda is challenged in some areas by local leaders who do not welcome such intervention, there is a clear momentum behind its activity.
Iraq's neighbours also have a greater capacity to affect the situation on the ground than either the UK or the US.Iraq's neighbours also have a greater capacity to affect the situation on the ground than either the UK or the US.
The report accuses each of Iraq's major neighbouring states - Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - of having reasons "for seeing the instability there continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments".The report accuses each of Iraq's major neighbouring states - Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - of having reasons "for seeing the instability there continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments".
The briefing paper says: "These current harsh realities need to be accepted if new strategies are to have any chance of preventing the failure and collapse of Iraq."The briefing paper says: "These current harsh realities need to be accepted if new strategies are to have any chance of preventing the failure and collapse of Iraq."
'Engage the enemy''Engage the enemy'
Mr Stansfield contends that the American security surge is moving violence to different areas, but is not overcoming it.Mr Stansfield contends that the American security surge is moving violence to different areas, but is not overcoming it.
Certainly there is a growing sense in London and Washington that the American commander in Iraq, Gen David Petraeus, is likely to ask for more time to continue the surge later this summer to deliver results.Certainly there is a growing sense in London and Washington that the American commander in Iraq, Gen David Petraeus, is likely to ask for more time to continue the surge later this summer to deliver results.
That will confront the Bush administration with a real dilemma.That will confront the Bush administration with a real dilemma.
US President George W Bush has vetoed a bill that would have set a deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. The bill was approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.US President George W Bush has vetoed a bill that would have set a deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. The bill was approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Congressional opponents of the war believe the veto signals that now it is the President alone who must take responsibility for continuing America's involvement, and the casualties.Congressional opponents of the war believe the veto signals that now it is the President alone who must take responsibility for continuing America's involvement, and the casualties.
The report urges the governments in London and Washington to include radical cleric Moqtada Sadr, who leads the Mehdi army, one of the major Shia militias, as a political partner, no longer treating him as an enemy - and by increasing the involvement of other countries in the region. The report urges the governments in London and Washington to include radical cleric Moqtada Sadr, who leads the Mehdi army, one of the major Shia militias, as a political partner and no longer treat him as an enemy.
It also calls for the involvement of other countries in the region.