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A letter from Iraq to Tony Blair A letter from Iraq to Tony Blair
(about 4 hours later)
By Jim Muir BBC NewsBy Jim Muir BBC News
One issue threatens to overshadow Tony Blair's legacy, affecting his image and standing at home and abroad, the decision to go to war in Iraq.One issue threatens to overshadow Tony Blair's legacy, affecting his image and standing at home and abroad, the decision to go to war in Iraq.
Even at the time of Saddam's fall, people were wary of the futureI have never written to a politician in my life. But I very nearly made an exception for Tony Blair.Even at the time of Saddam's fall, people were wary of the futureI have never written to a politician in my life. But I very nearly made an exception for Tony Blair.
It was towards the end of 2002, when it was already clear that the invasion of Iraq was only a matter of time.It was towards the end of 2002, when it was already clear that the invasion of Iraq was only a matter of time.
I found myself deeply torn. I had no illusions about the nature of Saddam Hussein. I had followed his brutal antics for years. I had been to his Iraq, and felt the all-pervasive fear instilled by his vigilant and ruthless police state.I found myself deeply torn. I had no illusions about the nature of Saddam Hussein. I had followed his brutal antics for years. I had been to his Iraq, and felt the all-pervasive fear instilled by his vigilant and ruthless police state.
What a relief it was, to get on the plane, and feel that oppressive weight lifted off your shoulders, an experience that most Iraqis were denied. What a relief it was to get on the plane and feel that oppressive weight lifted off your shoulders, an experience that most Iraqis were denied.
But when Saddam's excesses were at their worst, during the war with Iran in the 1980s, he was actually being discreetly supported by the Americans.But when Saddam's excesses were at their worst, during the war with Iran in the 1980s, he was actually being discreetly supported by the Americans.
Washington was turning a blind eye to human rights reports from its own State Department detailing how Iraqi children were being tortured in front of their parents to get them to confess or inform.Washington was turning a blind eye to human rights reports from its own State Department detailing how Iraqi children were being tortured in front of their parents to get them to confess or inform.
In 1988, when the Iraqi air force dropped chemical bombs which killed thousands of Kurds at Halabja, I remember phoning the Pentagon, and being told: "We think it was the Iranians who did it."In 1988, when the Iraqi air force dropped chemical bombs which killed thousands of Kurds at Halabja, I remember phoning the Pentagon, and being told: "We think it was the Iranians who did it."
Bad manBad man
So on a personal level, I would be glad to see the end of Saddam Hussein and his harsh dictatorship.So on a personal level, I would be glad to see the end of Saddam Hussein and his harsh dictatorship.
It was clear, long before it happened, that this was going to be a terrible mess. It had to be But the impending invasion was clearly not about to happen because he was a bad man.It was clear, long before it happened, that this was going to be a terrible mess. It had to be But the impending invasion was clearly not about to happen because he was a bad man.
It might be the right thing, but it was being done for the wrong reasons - reasons that had more to do with the global ambitions of the ascendant neo-conservatives in Washington, and their desire to engineer a New Order in the Middle East.It might be the right thing, but it was being done for the wrong reasons - reasons that had more to do with the global ambitions of the ascendant neo-conservatives in Washington, and their desire to engineer a New Order in the Middle East.
The chosen pretexts for the war - Saddam's alleged weapons of mass destruction and links with international terror - turned out to be simply invalid.The chosen pretexts for the war - Saddam's alleged weapons of mass destruction and links with international terror - turned out to be simply invalid.
I have often thought, over these past four years, of that regular cartoon slot in the satirical magazine Private Eye, entitled "Things We Seldom See".I have often thought, over these past four years, of that regular cartoon slot in the satirical magazine Private Eye, entitled "Things We Seldom See".
It features situations which would be blindingly logical, but just never happen.It features situations which would be blindingly logical, but just never happen.
I wanted to propose one where President Bush addresses Saddam Hussein and says:I wanted to propose one where President Bush addresses Saddam Hussein and says:
"Mr Hussein, you were right. There were no weapons of mass destruction, and no links with terrorism. We'd like to apologise, and give you your country back.""Mr Hussein, you were right. There were no weapons of mass destruction, and no links with terrorism. We'd like to apologise, and give you your country back."
Apart from misgivings about Washington's real motives and objectives, it was clear, long before it happened, that this was going to be a terrible mess. It had to be.Apart from misgivings about Washington's real motives and objectives, it was clear, long before it happened, that this was going to be a terrible mess. It had to be.
Confessional cocktailConfessional cocktail
Iraq is a patchwork country, an ethnic and confessional cocktail, of Arabs and Kurds, Turkomans and Chaldaeans, Sunnis and Shiites.Iraq is a patchwork country, an ethnic and confessional cocktail, of Arabs and Kurds, Turkomans and Chaldaeans, Sunnis and Shiites.
Iraq has been plagued with civil unrest and violenceSuch countries are usually held together by a strong centralised dictatorship, which could be benign or tyrannical.Iraq has been plagued with civil unrest and violenceSuch countries are usually held together by a strong centralised dictatorship, which could be benign or tyrannical.
As soon as you admit the concept of democracy and take the lid off, it is bound to be difficult and chaotic in the best of conditions, in a place with no democratic traditions or culture.As soon as you admit the concept of democracy and take the lid off, it is bound to be difficult and chaotic in the best of conditions, in a place with no democratic traditions or culture.
To blow the regime and all its control mechanisms away virtually overnight, through the massive use of force by people from halfway around the world, would inevitably plunge the country and the region into a long period of chaos, whatever exact form it would take.To blow the regime and all its control mechanisms away virtually overnight, through the massive use of force by people from halfway around the world, would inevitably plunge the country and the region into a long period of chaos, whatever exact form it would take.
That is why I lay sleepless in my bed in Tehran, mentally composing that letter to Tony Blair that I never wrote.That is why I lay sleepless in my bed in Tehran, mentally composing that letter to Tony Blair that I never wrote.
I was going to tell him, on the basis of three decades living and working in the region, that he was on the brink of a massive historical blunder.I was going to tell him, on the basis of three decades living and working in the region, that he was on the brink of a massive historical blunder.
I never sent it, because I knew of course that it would not make a blind bit of difference, apart from perhaps salving my own conscience, and allowing me to say: "I told you so" - something that would bring no satisfaction at all.I never sent it, because I knew of course that it would not make a blind bit of difference, apart from perhaps salving my own conscience, and allowing me to say: "I told you so" - something that would bring no satisfaction at all.
And so, four years on, look at what a terrible mess Mr Blair can now say goodbye to, and hand on to Gordon Brown.And so, four years on, look at what a terrible mess Mr Blair can now say goodbye to, and hand on to Gordon Brown.
Long nightmareLong nightmare
Where there used to be tight state control, there is massive terrorism on a daily basis. The Americans have been bombing Baghdad again, to quell Sunni militants and Shiite militias.Where there used to be tight state control, there is massive terrorism on a daily basis. The Americans have been bombing Baghdad again, to quell Sunni militants and Shiite militias.
At the end of the day, the British are minor players, politically important partners brought in on the coat-tails of the Americans They are building walls to separate districts, euphemistically calling them "gated communities". Millions of Iraqis have fled the country.At the end of the day, the British are minor players, politically important partners brought in on the coat-tails of the Americans They are building walls to separate districts, euphemistically calling them "gated communities". Millions of Iraqis have fled the country.
In the south, British troops are trying to stifle Shiite militias which know they only have to wait, because the British will be gone before long.In the south, British troops are trying to stifle Shiite militias which know they only have to wait, because the British will be gone before long.
A transition of leadership in London is not going to make much difference on the ground in Iraq.A transition of leadership in London is not going to make much difference on the ground in Iraq.
Gordon Brown will be locked into a situation which he might or might not have chosen to get into in the first place, but will now be stuck with, and his options will be limited.Gordon Brown will be locked into a situation which he might or might not have chosen to get into in the first place, but will now be stuck with, and his options will be limited.
At the end of the day, the British are minor players, politically important partners brought in on the coat-tails of the Americans.At the end of the day, the British are minor players, politically important partners brought in on the coat-tails of the Americans.
It is the outcome of their last-ditch struggle to control Baghdad and central Iraq that is crucial to the country's future.It is the outcome of their last-ditch struggle to control Baghdad and central Iraq that is crucial to the country's future.
If it does not work, the coalition troops may start pulling out and we may find that Iraq's long nightmare has only just begun.If it does not work, the coalition troops may start pulling out and we may find that Iraq's long nightmare has only just begun.
From Our Own Correspondent was broadcast on Thursday, 10 May, 2007 at 1100 GMT on BBC Radio 4. Please check the programme schedules for World Service transmission times.From Our Own Correspondent was broadcast on Thursday, 10 May, 2007 at 1100 GMT on BBC Radio 4. Please check the programme schedules for World Service transmission times.