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Climate change 'can be tackled' Climate change 'can be tackled'
(30 minutes later)
The growth in greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed at reasonable cost, experts at a major UN climate change conference in Bangkok have agreed.The growth in greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed at reasonable cost, experts at a major UN climate change conference in Bangkok have agreed.
Boosting renewable energy, reducing deforestation and improving energy efficiency can all help, they said.Boosting renewable energy, reducing deforestation and improving energy efficiency can all help, they said.
This is the third report this year from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and aims to set out the costs and benefits of various policies.This is the third report this year from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and aims to set out the costs and benefits of various policies.
IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri said the report was "stunning".IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri said the report was "stunning".
"Human society as a whole has to look for changes in consumption patterns," he told reporters at a news conference in the Thai capital."Human society as a whole has to look for changes in consumption patterns," he told reporters at a news conference in the Thai capital.
New clauses added to the report at the last moment clarify the potential for nuclear power and lifestyle changes to cut emissions.New clauses added to the report at the last moment clarify the potential for nuclear power and lifestyle changes to cut emissions.
'Action needed' Continued growth
"It's all done," Peter Lukey, a member of the South African delegation, told the Associated Press news agency. Greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 70% since 1970, and will rise by between 25% and 90% over the next 25 years under "business as usual", with fossil fuels set to continue as the world's dominant energy source.
"Everything we wanted to see was there and more. The message is: We have to do something now." "If we continue to do what we are doing now, we are in deep trouble," observed Ogunlade Davidson, a senior author on the report.
The report makes clear that greenhouse gases are rising, and without intervention will continue to rise, with fossil fuels likely to remain the dominant energy supply for decades to come. During the early part of the week, China had repeatedly tried to tone down some elements of the draft text, delegates said, being keen to remove references to scenarios which it feared could affect its short-term economic growth.
I can tell you that the probability for achieving 450ppm in anything approaching the world as it now is almost impossible Professor Stephen Schneider China repeatedly tried to tone down some elements of the draft text prepared for the start of the week-long discussions, delegates said. But in later sessions it played a more consensual hand.
It was keen to remove references to scenarios which it fears could affect its short-term economic growth.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already this year produced the two other elements of this global assessment report - its fourth since 1990 - dealing respectively with the science of climate change and on the potential impacts.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already this year produced the two other elements of this global assessment report - its fourth since 1990 - dealing respectively with the science of climate change and on the potential impacts.
Stable futuresStable futures
The report assesses the likely costs to the global economy of stabilising greenhouse gases at various concentrations in the atmosphere.The report assesses the likely costs to the global economy of stabilising greenhouse gases at various concentrations in the atmosphere.
Vehicle emissions are not tackled well, the IPCC believes Aiming for a total greenhouse gas concentration equivalent to 650 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide would reduce global GDP by about 0.2%, it says, whereas a more ambitious target of 550ppm would cost about 0.6% of global GDP, says the BBC's environment correspondent Richard Black.Vehicle emissions are not tackled well, the IPCC believes Aiming for a total greenhouse gas concentration equivalent to 650 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide would reduce global GDP by about 0.2%, it says, whereas a more ambitious target of 550ppm would cost about 0.6% of global GDP, says the BBC's environment correspondent Richard Black.
The current atmospheric concentration is about 425ppm, and many climate scientists now argue that only agreeing to keep below about 450ppm can prevent major climatic consequences.The current atmospheric concentration is about 425ppm, and many climate scientists now argue that only agreeing to keep below about 450ppm can prevent major climatic consequences.
The IPCC draft says keeping concentrations at this level could cost up to 3% of GDP.The IPCC draft says keeping concentrations at this level could cost up to 3% of GDP.
"I can tell you that the probability for achieving 450ppm in anything approaching the world as it now is almost impossible," commented Professor Stephen Schneider from Stanford University in California, who helped draft the IPCC's first report this year on the science of climate change."I can tell you that the probability for achieving 450ppm in anything approaching the world as it now is almost impossible," commented Professor Stephen Schneider from Stanford University in California, who helped draft the IPCC's first report this year on the science of climate change.
"But a temperature rise over 2-3C leads to potential mass extinctions, serious problems with coasts, mountain glaciers disappearing, melting ice sheets... and one has to talk about stabilisation at 450-550ppm range to have a better than 20-30% chance of preventing that.""But a temperature rise over 2-3C leads to potential mass extinctions, serious problems with coasts, mountain glaciers disappearing, melting ice sheets... and one has to talk about stabilisation at 450-550ppm range to have a better than 20-30% chance of preventing that."
The IPCC does not make policy recommendations, but even so China, with some other delegations, sought to play down references to the lower stabilisation levels.The IPCC does not make policy recommendations, but even so China, with some other delegations, sought to play down references to the lower stabilisation levels.