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| What are my chances of living to 100? | What are my chances of living to 100? |
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| WHO, WHAT, WHY? The Magazine answers... Having fun helpsTen years after betting £100 that he would live to be 100, a man is celebrating his centenary birthday with a cheque for £25,000. Would you be wise to place a similar bet? | WHO, WHAT, WHY? The Magazine answers... Having fun helpsTen years after betting £100 that he would live to be 100, a man is celebrating his centenary birthday with a cheque for £25,000. Would you be wise to place a similar bet? |
| It's the milestone that many dream of reaching, but few actually do. Alec Holden was offered generous odds of 250-1 when he was 90 years old that he would live to 100, much to the regret of bookmaker William Hill. | It's the milestone that many dream of reaching, but few actually do. Alec Holden was offered generous odds of 250-1 when he was 90 years old that he would live to 100, much to the regret of bookmaker William Hill. |
| The mathematics of life expectancy calculations undertaken by actuaries are very complex. | The mathematics of life expectancy calculations undertaken by actuaries are very complex. |
| THE ANSWER Pretty grim - just 8% if you are a man currently aged 40; almost 12% if you are a woman the same age Rates are usually applied to newborn babies and how old they can expect to live, if the current death rates applied. On current estimations, 100 would still command long odds - boys born in the UK will on average live to almost 77 and girls to 81. | THE ANSWER Pretty grim - just 8% if you are a man currently aged 40; almost 12% if you are a woman the same age Rates are usually applied to newborn babies and how old they can expect to live, if the current death rates applied. On current estimations, 100 would still command long odds - boys born in the UK will on average live to almost 77 and girls to 81. |
| Their chances of living to 100 are 18.1% for boys; 23.5% for girls, according to the Office for National Statistics. The odds for a 40-year-old male reading this article are somewhat longer, at just 8%. A 40-year-old woman has an 11.7% chance of reaching the magic three figures. | Their chances of living to 100 are 18.1% for boys; 23.5% for girls, according to the Office for National Statistics. The odds for a 40-year-old male reading this article are somewhat longer, at just 8%. A 40-year-old woman has an 11.7% chance of reaching the magic three figures. |
| The major factors in determining life expectancy - genetics, getting cancer and being in a fatal accident, for example - are out of your control and down to luck, says Brian Stollery, an expert in human ageing. | The major factors in determining life expectancy - genetics, getting cancer and being in a fatal accident, for example - are out of your control and down to luck, says Brian Stollery, an expert in human ageing. |
| LIFE EXPECTANCY AROUND UK At birth 2003-5 England Male: 76.9 Fem: 81.2Wales M: 76.3 F: 80.7Scotland M: 74.2 F: 79.3N Ireland M: 76.0 F: 80.8UK M: 76.6 F: 81.0 Source: ONS "But other factors in people's control will have an influence," he says. "Having a healthy lifestyle, keeping fit. Preserving mental health requires keeping the brain active." | LIFE EXPECTANCY AROUND UK At birth 2003-5 England Male: 76.9 Fem: 81.2Wales M: 76.3 F: 80.7Scotland M: 74.2 F: 79.3N Ireland M: 76.0 F: 80.8UK M: 76.6 F: 81.0 Source: ONS "But other factors in people's control will have an influence," he says. "Having a healthy lifestyle, keeping fit. Preserving mental health requires keeping the brain active." |
| It's difficult to quantify how much these play a part, he says, but smoking is significant because it affects lung and brain capacity and increases cancer risk. | |
| "But people smoke all their life and live to 100 and some never smoke and die of lung cancer at 50." | "But people smoke all their life and live to 100 and some never smoke and die of lung cancer at 50." |
| Where people live is not a factor in itself but there can be cultural influences associated with different parts of the UK, says Dr Stollery. | Where people live is not a factor in itself but there can be cultural influences associated with different parts of the UK, says Dr Stollery. |
| Gender difference | Gender difference |
| Stress can affect the heart so people who respond well to challenges in life can benefit in old age, while having a good pension helps buy some of the things that can increase well-being, he adds. | Stress can affect the heart so people who respond well to challenges in life can benefit in old age, while having a good pension helps buy some of the things that can increase well-being, he adds. |
| By the time you get to 90 you've gone past a lot of the things that usually kill you Danny DorlingHuman geographer Man wins £25,000 bet at 100 | By the time you get to 90 you've gone past a lot of the things that usually kill you Danny DorlingHuman geographer Man wins £25,000 bet at 100 |
| Women in the UK tend to live longer because their hearts are better in old age, say researchers at the Liverpool John Moores University. One evolutionary theory is that the hunter-gatherer tasks took their toll on younger men and the social importance of older women as advisers and passing on cultural meant they survived. | Women in the UK tend to live longer because their hearts are better in old age, say researchers at the Liverpool John Moores University. One evolutionary theory is that the hunter-gatherer tasks took their toll on younger men and the social importance of older women as advisers and passing on cultural meant they survived. |
| But once people reach 90, like Alec Holden, normal rules don't apply, says Danny Dorling, professor of human geography at Sheffield University. | But once people reach 90, like Alec Holden, normal rules don't apply, says Danny Dorling, professor of human geography at Sheffield University. |
| "By the time you get to 90 you've gone past a lot of the things that usually kill you, the bulk of cancers apart from prostate, your heart is fairly sound and so people who die in their 90s tend to die from different things than other people." | "By the time you get to 90 you've gone past a lot of the things that usually kill you, the bulk of cancers apart from prostate, your heart is fairly sound and so people who die in their 90s tend to die from different things than other people." |
| WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular feature in the BBC News Magazine - aiming to answer some of the questions behind the headlines Research suggests people at 90 tend to stop worrying about ill health and instead worry about people close to them, he says. | WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular feature in the BBC News Magazine - aiming to answer some of the questions behind the headlines Research suggests people at 90 tend to stop worrying about ill health and instead worry about people close to them, he says. |
| But it's not all good news at 90, says Mr Dorling. The chances of outliving your children rises significantly at that age and grief about losing a child is no less in old age than in young. | But it's not all good news at 90, says Mr Dorling. The chances of outliving your children rises significantly at that age and grief about losing a child is no less in old age than in young. |
| And younger people really ought to worry more about enjoying life and being happy, and less thinking about how they can make it to their 70s and 80s. | And younger people really ought to worry more about enjoying life and being happy, and less thinking about how they can make it to their 70s and 80s. |
| "It's largely out of their hands and if they're spending their time worrying about how to life forever, what are they living for?" | "It's largely out of their hands and if they're spending their time worrying about how to life forever, what are they living for?" |
Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |