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Blair 'will be gone in 12 months' Blair 'will be gone in 12 months'
(20 minutes later)
Tony Blair will probably quit in 12 month's time, Cabinet Minister David Miliband has said. Tony Blair will probably quit in 12 month's time, Cabinet minister David Miliband has said.
Mr Miliband said he had no reason to challenge the "conventional wisdom" about Mr Blair's departure plans.Mr Miliband said he had no reason to challenge the "conventional wisdom" about Mr Blair's departure plans.
It is the first time a senior minister has given a definite timescale, but he stressed Mr Blair had not told him.It is the first time a senior minister has given a definite timescale, but he stressed Mr Blair had not told him.
Letters are believed to be circulating among Labour MPs demanding Mr Blair give more details of his exit plans - or even saying he should go now.Letters are believed to be circulating among Labour MPs demanding Mr Blair give more details of his exit plans - or even saying he should go now.
Speculation about Mr Blair's retirement from No 10 has been fuelled further by a leaked memo planning a farewell tour so "the public remember him as he should be".Speculation about Mr Blair's retirement from No 10 has been fuelled further by a leaked memo planning a farewell tour so "the public remember him as he should be".
Uncertainty fearsUncertainty fears
The prime minister has said he will step down before the next election but is refusing to give more details about his plans at this month's Labour conference in Manchester.The prime minister has said he will step down before the next election but is refusing to give more details about his plans at this month's Labour conference in Manchester.
He has faced mounting calls for him to end the uncertainty in recent days.He has faced mounting calls for him to end the uncertainty in recent days.
He should be the star who won't even play that last encore Leaked memo from Blair allies In full: leaked memoHe should be the star who won't even play that last encore Leaked memo from Blair allies In full: leaked memo
And now BBC Newsnight's Michael Crick says MPs elected only last year have drafted a letter which praises Mr Blair's achievements but says it is time for him to go.And now BBC Newsnight's Michael Crick says MPs elected only last year have drafted a letter which praises Mr Blair's achievements but says it is time for him to go.
Two other letters are said to be circulating, one from MPs elected in 2001 and another from ministerial aides.Two other letters are said to be circulating, one from MPs elected in 2001 and another from ministerial aides.
The letter from the 2001 intake is said to have been coordinated by normally loyal Blairite MPs Sion Simon and Chris Bryant. The letter from the 2001 intake is said to have been co-ordinated by normally loyal Blairite MPs Sion Simon and Chris Bryant.
Mr Simon has refused to comment on the reports, telling The Guardian newspaper: "If such a confidential letter existed, its existence and contents remain confidential." Mr Simon has refused to comment on the reports, telling the Guardian newspaper: "If such a confidential letter existed, its existence and contents remain confidential."
None of the MPs' letters have so far been delivered to Downing Street.None of the MPs' letters have so far been delivered to Downing Street.
A year to go?A year to go?
Mr Miliband told BBC Radio 4's Today programme Mr Blair had not told him about a date.Mr Miliband told BBC Radio 4's Today programme Mr Blair had not told him about a date.
But he added: "The conventional wisdom is that the prime minister sees himself carrying on for about another 12 months. It seems to me that that conventional wisdom is reasonable."But he added: "The conventional wisdom is that the prime minister sees himself carrying on for about another 12 months. It seems to me that that conventional wisdom is reasonable."
Mr Blair's critics will also seize on a leaked memo obtained by the Daily Mirror newspaper.Mr Blair's critics will also seize on a leaked memo obtained by the Daily Mirror newspaper.
The memo, reportedly drawn up by a group of his allies, including his pollster Philip Gould, says the prime minister's departure should promote the "triumph of Blairism".The memo, reportedly drawn up by a group of his allies, including his pollster Philip Gould, says the prime minister's departure should promote the "triumph of Blairism".
"He needs to go with the crowd wanting more," the memo reportedly says."He needs to go with the crowd wanting more," the memo reportedly says.
"He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future.""He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future."
It says Mr Blair has plans to appear on Blue Peter, Songs of Praise and Chris Evans' radio show in the lead-up to his retirement. It says Mr Blair has plans to appear on Blue Peter, Songs of Praise and Chris Evans's radio show in the lead-up to his retirement.
Other suggestions include spending a day then an overnight stay in half a dozen cities across the country and visiting the 20 most striking buildings opened or redeveloped since 1997.Other suggestions include spending a day then an overnight stay in half a dozen cities across the country and visiting the 20 most striking buildings opened or redeveloped since 1997.
Poll changesPoll changes
Downing Street has declined to comment on the leak.Downing Street has declined to comment on the leak.
BBC political correspondent Norman Smith said that the prime minister may not have seen the leaked memo.BBC political correspondent Norman Smith said that the prime minister may not have seen the leaked memo.
The reports come as a Populus poll suggested David Cameron's Conservatives would have a strong lead over Labour whether Mr Blair stayed on, or was replaced by Gordon Brown or John Reid.The reports come as a Populus poll suggested David Cameron's Conservatives would have a strong lead over Labour whether Mr Blair stayed on, or was replaced by Gordon Brown or John Reid.
The poll of 1,504 people also suggested 30% of Labour voters and 51% of the general public wanted Mr Blair to step down this year.The poll of 1,504 people also suggested 30% of Labour voters and 51% of the general public wanted Mr Blair to step down this year.
Various trade union leaders and Labour MPs have criticised the uncertainty generated by Mr Blair's failure to specify a departure date. Mr Brown will be the strong favourite to take over should Mr Blair step down.Various trade union leaders and Labour MPs have criticised the uncertainty generated by Mr Blair's failure to specify a departure date. Mr Brown will be the strong favourite to take over should Mr Blair step down.
Education Secretary Alan Johnson has said Mr Blair would be handing a "gift" to the opposition parties if he did release a timetable.Education Secretary Alan Johnson has said Mr Blair would be handing a "gift" to the opposition parties if he did release a timetable.