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| How do you carry out opinion polls in Iraq? | How do you carry out opinion polls in Iraq? |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| WHO, WHAT, WHY? The Magazine answers... | WHO, WHAT, WHY? The Magazine answers... |
| A BBC pollster at work in IraqThe fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has led the BBC and others to canvass opinion in the country. So how do you do that in a state which is violent and fearful? | A BBC pollster at work in IraqThe fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has led the BBC and others to canvass opinion in the country. So how do you do that in a state which is violent and fearful? |
| It will come as no surprise that gathering reliable data in Iraq is an extremely tough and dangerous exercise. | It will come as no surprise that gathering reliable data in Iraq is an extremely tough and dangerous exercise. |
| Carrying out an opinion poll - like the one commissioned by the BBC (in alliance with other media organisations) - poses many safety issues, with researchers facing personal risk because of escalating violence. | Carrying out an opinion poll - like the one commissioned by the BBC (in alliance with other media organisations) - poses many safety issues, with researchers facing personal risk because of escalating violence. |
| There are also concerns about people being too frightened to give a stranger an honest answer about sensitive subjects, including politics. The method of collecting data also comes under close scrutiny. | There are also concerns about people being too frightened to give a stranger an honest answer about sensitive subjects, including politics. The method of collecting data also comes under close scrutiny. |
| WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular feature in the BBC News Magazine - aiming to answer some of the questions behind the headlines | WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular feature in the BBC News Magazine - aiming to answer some of the questions behind the headlines |
| Leading medical journal the Lancet was criticised after publishing research by a US university last October claiming the invasion of Iraq had led to the deaths of an estimated 655,000 Iraqis. At the time it was 10 times higher than any other estimate, even by human rights organisations. | Leading medical journal the Lancet was criticised after publishing research by a US university last October claiming the invasion of Iraq had led to the deaths of an estimated 655,000 Iraqis. At the time it was 10 times higher than any other estimate, even by human rights organisations. |
| The research was done by a team of Iraqi doctors who visited 1,849 households asking residents about recent deaths in the household. | The research was done by a team of Iraqi doctors who visited 1,849 households asking residents about recent deaths in the household. |
| Answering its critics, the journal said its method more reliable than counting dead bodies, given the obstacles preventing more comprehensive fieldwork in the country. | Answering its critics, the journal said its method more reliable than counting dead bodies, given the obstacles preventing more comprehensive fieldwork in the country. |
| With all these limitations, how do you carry out an opinion poll in Iraq? | With all these limitations, how do you carry out an opinion poll in Iraq? |
| Ethnic match | Ethnic match |
| The BBC poll was conducted by the US-based market research company D3 Systems. More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq. The interviews were done between 25 February and 5 March 2007 and the number conducted in each area depended on population size. | The BBC poll was conducted by the US-based market research company D3 Systems. More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq. The interviews were done between 25 February and 5 March 2007 and the number conducted in each area depended on population size. |
| All the researchers were Iraqi and organisers tried, as much as possible, to match the ethnic and religious background of the interviewers with the neighbourhoods they were visiting. The questioning was done in Arabic or Kurdish. | All the researchers were Iraqi and organisers tried, as much as possible, to match the ethnic and religious background of the interviewers with the neighbourhoods they were visiting. The questioning was done in Arabic or Kurdish. |
| IRAQ POLL RESULTS href="/1/hi/world/middle_east/6464277.stm">Read the findings | |
| The interviewers were given a specific location to start from and then visited every third house on the left until they had finished the interviews assigned to them. | The interviewers were given a specific location to start from and then visited every third house on the left until they had finished the interviews assigned to them. |
| This method was used to ensure they didn't just visit nice or safe-looking houses. Supervisors were also sent back to check the route they followed. | This method was used to ensure they didn't just visit nice or safe-looking houses. Supervisors were also sent back to check the route they followed. |
| Once at the house, the interviewer made a list of the people aged 18 and over. The person interviewed was the one with the birthday closest to the date of the interviewer had come to the house. | Once at the house, the interviewer made a list of the people aged 18 and over. The person interviewed was the one with the birthday closest to the date of the interviewer had come to the house. |
| This was to ensure the interviewer didn't just select the nicest or most willing person from the household. The system also helped to make sure there was a random distribution of ages, genders and other demographic characteristics. | This was to ensure the interviewer didn't just select the nicest or most willing person from the household. The system also helped to make sure there was a random distribution of ages, genders and other demographic characteristics. |
| Harassed | Harassed |
| The work could be dangerous and frustrating. Some pollsters reported witnessing bomb attacks and clashes between rival groups as they went door to door. Others said they were harassed by police or local militia groups who wanted to know why they were asking questions. | The work could be dangerous and frustrating. Some pollsters reported witnessing bomb attacks and clashes between rival groups as they went door to door. Others said they were harassed by police or local militia groups who wanted to know why they were asking questions. |
| They also had to deal with the daily problems of moving around the country. | They also had to deal with the daily problems of moving around the country. |
| "Roads are closed and obstacles come up after bombs go off, there are curfews put in place - these are frustrations they have to face in doing their work," says D3's Matt Warshaw. "They are no different than what any other Iraqi has to face in their day to day life." | "Roads are closed and obstacles come up after bombs go off, there are curfews put in place - these are frustrations they have to face in doing their work," says D3's Matt Warshaw. "They are no different than what any other Iraqi has to face in their day to day life." |
| Pollsters would use birth date to determine who to interviewDespite the security climate, most Iraqis did agree to take part, even though the people on their doorstep appeared unexpectedly and were strangers. | Pollsters would use birth date to determine who to interviewDespite the security climate, most Iraqis did agree to take part, even though the people on their doorstep appeared unexpectedly and were strangers. |
| They agreed to be interviewed on a broad range of topics, from the supply of electricity to their homes to their views on Iraqi politics. | They agreed to be interviewed on a broad range of topics, from the supply of electricity to their homes to their views on Iraqi politics. |
| The refusal rate was on average between 20% and 30%, the organisers say - that's lower than in the US and the UK. | The refusal rate was on average between 20% and 30%, the organisers say - that's lower than in the US and the UK. |
| There is debate about whether people who might be fearful would really give honest answers. Mr Warshaw says his impression was that most Iraqi people wanted their opinions known. | There is debate about whether people who might be fearful would really give honest answers. Mr Warshaw says his impression was that most Iraqi people wanted their opinions known. |
| "I don't see an overwhelming reason why Iraqis should be dishonest in polling and I don't see any evidence that they were. I think the majority of people want others to hear what's happening in their lives." | "I don't see an overwhelming reason why Iraqis should be dishonest in polling and I don't see any evidence that they were. I think the majority of people want others to hear what's happening in their lives." |