UK 'will miss' renewables target

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The government's target of generating 10% of Britain's electricity from renewable sources by 2010 is unlikely to be met, a report has concluded.

Researchers from Cambridge Econometrics estimate that the UK's renewables supply will be only 8% by 2010.

Last year the government admitted it would not meet another 2010 target of reducing greenhouse emissions by 20%.

The government said planning delays were an issue on wind farms, but said the 2010 target could still be met.

Cambridge Econometrics does believe the UK is on track to meet longer-term objectives on renewables.

The company developed computer models involving economic, environmental and energy parameters for the latest edition of its biannual UK Energy and the Environment report.

New policies that give incentives to the development of non-carbon renewable energy are needed Paul Ekins

"Our forecasts suggest that renewables will only account for 8% of UK electricity generation in 2010, compared with around 4% in 2005," said senior consultant Professor Paul Ekins.

"It is clear that new policies that give incentives to the development of non-carbon renewable energy, particularly offshore wind, are needed."

The government's primary policy tool is the Renewables Obligation (RO), which requires electricity suppliers to source a percentage of their output from renewable technologies such as wind, solar and hydro. The percentage grows annually.

Other measures include grants for small-scale renewable installations. But industry figures have regularly criticised the small size of the sums allocated when compared with investments in countries such as Germany and Japan.

Driving issue

The British Wind Energy Association, the trade body for companies in the dominant UK renewables sector, warned last year that planning applications for wind farms were now taking up to four years to process.

A spokesman for the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) acknowledged planning delays were an issue, but suggested the 2010 target could still be met.

Emissions from transport are likely to continue rising for some time

"It's too early to say how much renewable electricity there will be by 2010, but if we make quick progress in addressing the barriers to large-scale deployment, such as access to the grid and planning delays, we can perform well against the target," he said.

"There is more than 14,000 megawatts of onshore and offshore wind capacity either consented or in the planning system, which would be more than enough to reach the 10% mark."

The driving force behind the government's renewables targets is a desire to curb the UK's carbon dioxide emissions, which have risen slightly in recent years.

Last year, ministers admitted that the target of a 20% cut in CO2 output between 1990 and 2010, a policy commitment which Labour outlined before the 1997 general election, would not be met.

Significant reductions in some other greenhouse gases mean that the UK will comfortably meet its Kyoto Protocol target of a 12.5% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012, Cambridge Econometrics believes.

By 2020, its projections suggest better results for the government, with a 20% target for renewable electricity likely to be achieved, alongside a reduction of about 15% in CO2 emissions.

Electricity generation and energy-intensive industry will become cleaner, it believes, while emissions from air and road transport continue to rise.

The forecasts could be affected by a number of factors, including fuel prices and the outcome of European Union negotiations this week on energy and climate.