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Debatable impact: Albanese and Dutton to face off again but experts question whether showdown will shift votes Debatable impact: Albanese and Dutton to face off again but experts question whether showdown will shift votes
(about 7 hours later)
Leaders’ debate performances rarely change election outcomes but any gaffes or missteps can get amplified later, experts sayLeaders’ debate performances rarely change election outcomes but any gaffes or missteps can get amplified later, experts say
Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton will face off on Wednesday night inside the ABC’s Parramatta studios in the second of four election leaders’ debates.Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton will face off on Wednesday night inside the ABC’s Parramatta studios in the second of four election leaders’ debates.
Albanese was judged the winner of the first encounter, a Sky News-hosted people’s forum in which a crowd of average voters posed questions on topics ranging from housing and the fuel excise to GP costs and the Gaza conflict.Albanese was judged the winner of the first encounter, a Sky News-hosted people’s forum in which a crowd of average voters posed questions on topics ranging from housing and the fuel excise to GP costs and the Gaza conflict.
ABC Insiders host and Canberra press gallery veteran David Speers will moderate Wednesday’s showdown, presenting a different set of challenges for the prime minister and the opposition leader.ABC Insiders host and Canberra press gallery veteran David Speers will moderate Wednesday’s showdown, presenting a different set of challenges for the prime minister and the opposition leader.
Leaders’ debates are a feature of each campaign, billed – in particular by the host broadcaster – as make-or-break moments capable of turning the campaign.Leaders’ debates are a feature of each campaign, billed – in particular by the host broadcaster – as make-or-break moments capable of turning the campaign.
But campaign veterans have differing opinions as to how decisive the set-piece events actually are.But campaign veterans have differing opinions as to how decisive the set-piece events actually are.
Yaron Finkelstein, who was Scott Morrison’s principal private secretary, said for all the hype surrounding leaders’ debates, the contests rarely shifted votes. Yaron Finkelstein, who was Scott Morrison’s principal private secretary, said for all the hype surrounding leaders’ debates the contests rarely shifted votes.
“It’s high stakes in the sense they [leaders] think that a mistake will be fatal, because there is a lot of debate hype,” Finkelstein said.“It’s high stakes in the sense they [leaders] think that a mistake will be fatal, because there is a lot of debate hype,” Finkelstein said.
“But of course, as we know, it becomes about the commentary later. But it’s never had a real impact on how people vote. It might reinforce what you already thought, but [it] rarely switches votes.”“But of course, as we know, it becomes about the commentary later. But it’s never had a real impact on how people vote. It might reinforce what you already thought, but [it] rarely switches votes.”
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Ryan Liddell, who served as chief of staff to the former Labor leader Bill Shorten, said debates were taken “incredibly seriously” because they could shape the agenda for the next phase of the campaign.Ryan Liddell, who served as chief of staff to the former Labor leader Bill Shorten, said debates were taken “incredibly seriously” because they could shape the agenda for the next phase of the campaign.
Liddell said Joe Biden’s horror show in the first US presidential debate with Donald Trump in 2024 – which hastened his exit from the race – had “stiffed a few spines” in political circles about the risks of “nonchalant debate prep”.Liddell said Joe Biden’s horror show in the first US presidential debate with Donald Trump in 2024 – which hastened his exit from the race – had “stiffed a few spines” in political circles about the risks of “nonchalant debate prep”.
“There is a huge risk of an error being amplified, which is why both sides take them so seriously,” he said.“There is a huge risk of an error being amplified, which is why both sides take them so seriously,” he said.
Sean Kelly, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, said as the notional frontrunner in the campaign, Albanese’s goal would be “not stuffing up”.Sean Kelly, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, said as the notional frontrunner in the campaign, Albanese’s goal would be “not stuffing up”.
“I don’t think these debates are quite the events they used to be,” he told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.“I don’t think these debates are quite the events they used to be,” he told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.
“But I do think making mistakes while the entire press gallery is watching on and ready to turn them into news stories is a huge potential problem.”“But I do think making mistakes while the entire press gallery is watching on and ready to turn them into news stories is a huge potential problem.”
The debates are distinct from everyday campaign press conferences and television and radio interviews, requiring a specific type of preparation from a leader and their inner circle.The debates are distinct from everyday campaign press conferences and television and radio interviews, requiring a specific type of preparation from a leader and their inner circle.
Albanese has been known to use mock debates as part of his preparation, with a rotating cast of senior Labor colleagues role-playing his Liberal opponent.Albanese has been known to use mock debates as part of his preparation, with a rotating cast of senior Labor colleagues role-playing his Liberal opponent.
Debate day typically involves a morning press conference, allowing the leaders to bunker down in the afternoon ahead of the primetime event.Debate day typically involves a morning press conference, allowing the leaders to bunker down in the afternoon ahead of the primetime event.
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The leaders must be cognisant of the specific debate format.The leaders must be cognisant of the specific debate format.
The sort of shouting that typifies parliamentary question time is nowhere to be seen in town hall-style debates such as last week’s people’s forum, where Albanese and Dutton made very deliberate attempts to appear personable to average voters.The sort of shouting that typifies parliamentary question time is nowhere to be seen in town hall-style debates such as last week’s people’s forum, where Albanese and Dutton made very deliberate attempts to appear personable to average voters.
The leaders’ advisers are constantly updating briefs in the days and weeks prior, foreshadowing the types of questions their boss might face.The leaders’ advisers are constantly updating briefs in the days and weeks prior, foreshadowing the types of questions their boss might face.
Often the topics raised on debate night are predictable.Often the topics raised on debate night are predictable.
But the unscripted nature of debates lends itself to a surprise – and it doesn’t always come from the audience.But the unscripted nature of debates lends itself to a surprise – and it doesn’t always come from the audience.
At a Sky News people’s forum during the 2019 campaign, Morrison famously encroached into Shorten’s section of the stage in an apparent attempt to intimate the Labor leader.At a Sky News people’s forum during the 2019 campaign, Morrison famously encroached into Shorten’s section of the stage in an apparent attempt to intimate the Labor leader.
Shorten responded with humour, dubbing Morrison a “classic space invader”.Shorten responded with humour, dubbing Morrison a “classic space invader”.
“They [Morrison’s team] obviously would have war-gamed that, and we had no idea, obviously, what was coming, or anything like that. But television amplifies aggression massively and it looked ridiculous,” Liddell said.“They [Morrison’s team] obviously would have war-gamed that, and we had no idea, obviously, what was coming, or anything like that. But television amplifies aggression massively and it looked ridiculous,” Liddell said.
“To Bill’s credit he used humour and ridicule as a way of defusing it and Morrison ends up looking like a goose. It looked weird, which fed into people’s perceptions that Morrison was a bit of a weird unit.”“To Bill’s credit he used humour and ridicule as a way of defusing it and Morrison ends up looking like a goose. It looked weird, which fed into people’s perceptions that Morrison was a bit of a weird unit.”
Shorten won the debate.Shorten won the debate.
A fortnight later, Morrison pulled off his “miracle” election win.A fortnight later, Morrison pulled off his “miracle” election win.