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Inside the campaign cocoon, sure-footed Albanese outboxes dour Dutton Inside the campaign cocoon, sure-footed Albanese outboxes dour Dutton
(about 20 hours later)
From the first moments, the Labor leader has shown confidence in the party’s positive message in contrast to his opponent’s more negative styleFrom the first moments, the Labor leader has shown confidence in the party’s positive message in contrast to his opponent’s more negative style
Anthony Albanese’s first appearance of the federal election campaign – a carefully planned, staged-managed roadshow – was not planned at all.Anthony Albanese’s first appearance of the federal election campaign – a carefully planned, staged-managed roadshow – was not planned at all.
As the prime minister’s vehicle moved through the Murrumba Downs shopping centre car park, a snap decision was made to hop out and greet gym goers on their Saturday morning workout. It was a risk, exposing Albanese to hecklers, or worse.As the prime minister’s vehicle moved through the Murrumba Downs shopping centre car park, a snap decision was made to hop out and greet gym goers on their Saturday morning workout. It was a risk, exposing Albanese to hecklers, or worse.
This wasn’t just any shopping centre; it was in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Brisbane’s northern suburbs. But as he strode into Fitstop gym, the Labor leader was received not as an intruder but a celebrity.This wasn’t just any shopping centre; it was in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Brisbane’s northern suburbs. But as he strode into Fitstop gym, the Labor leader was received not as an intruder but a celebrity.
“Let’s go defend Medicare!” he shouted to raucous cheers.“Let’s go defend Medicare!” he shouted to raucous cheers.
The interaction will be a footnote in the history of the 2025 campaign. But it was instructive because it showed something so lacking on the opening day of Albanese’s 2022 campaign: confidence.The interaction will be a footnote in the history of the 2025 campaign. But it was instructive because it showed something so lacking on the opening day of Albanese’s 2022 campaign: confidence.
At a press conference at a nearby Medicare urgent clinic, he demonstrated a quality that has betrayed him so often in the past three years: sharpness.At a press conference at a nearby Medicare urgent clinic, he demonstrated a quality that has betrayed him so often in the past three years: sharpness.
Albanese had found his groove. And after rushing surprise new income tax cuts through parliament on election eve, in the face of Coalition resistance, he found his message, too.Albanese had found his groove. And after rushing surprise new income tax cuts through parliament on election eve, in the face of Coalition resistance, he found his message, too.
“Peter Dutton will cut everything except your taxes.”“Peter Dutton will cut everything except your taxes.”
The campaign cocoonThe campaign cocoon
In the sheltered cocoon of the campaign trail, the travelling media don’t get much chance to consume much beyond what’s happening in front of you.In the sheltered cocoon of the campaign trail, the travelling media don’t get much chance to consume much beyond what’s happening in front of you.
That’s partly by design of the advancers and advisers designing the campaign schedule, endlessly moving from one place to another but never really having any time to see beside what they want you to see; but it has been striking to see, even at a distance, how different Albanese’s campaign events have been from Dutton’s.That’s partly by design of the advancers and advisers designing the campaign schedule, endlessly moving from one place to another but never really having any time to see beside what they want you to see; but it has been striking to see, even at a distance, how different Albanese’s campaign events have been from Dutton’s.
In Dutton’s first, he has interacted outside with the general public just twice: once at an Assyrian cultural festival in Fairfield, then chatting to a few motorists at a Sydney petrol station.In Dutton’s first, he has interacted outside with the general public just twice: once at an Assyrian cultural festival in Fairfield, then chatting to a few motorists at a Sydney petrol station.
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Every other event has been closed off, in private areas: an empty brewery on a quiet Saturday, two factories in fenced industrial areas, an empty function room in a far-flung winery, a private dining room in a Chinese restaurant, two rooms full of supporters on his Dickson home turf.Every other event has been closed off, in private areas: an empty brewery on a quiet Saturday, two factories in fenced industrial areas, an empty function room in a far-flung winery, a private dining room in a Chinese restaurant, two rooms full of supporters on his Dickson home turf.
Partly it’s security reasons: as evidenced by two Rising Tide protesters gatecrashing events on day one, and his phalanx of burly security heralding his arrivals.Partly it’s security reasons: as evidenced by two Rising Tide protesters gatecrashing events on day one, and his phalanx of burly security heralding his arrivals.
The same group gatecrashed Albanese’s visit to Maitland hospital on Thursday, one of two incursions into his highly controlled campaign after a far-right agitator disrupted his opening-day conference.The same group gatecrashed Albanese’s visit to Maitland hospital on Thursday, one of two incursions into his highly controlled campaign after a far-right agitator disrupted his opening-day conference.
Dutton may be able to stay out of the public eye, but he can’t avoid media scrutiny as easily, and this week was marked by another more significant development.Dutton may be able to stay out of the public eye, but he can’t avoid media scrutiny as easily, and this week was marked by another more significant development.
It was the first time in three years of Liberal leadership that Dutton faced sustained, day-after-day pressure to answer questions, to expand on policies and thought bubbles, to flesh out the half-answers and sledges that he casually drops in the middle of sentences, which has become a hallmark of his communication style.It was the first time in three years of Liberal leadership that Dutton faced sustained, day-after-day pressure to answer questions, to expand on policies and thought bubbles, to flesh out the half-answers and sledges that he casually drops in the middle of sentences, which has become a hallmark of his communication style.
He was also not really saying anything. A week into the campaign, he is not really talking about his policies or making compelling arguments beyond general criticism of the government, leaving himself open to be challenged on details and past remarks.He was also not really saying anything. A week into the campaign, he is not really talking about his policies or making compelling arguments beyond general criticism of the government, leaving himself open to be challenged on details and past remarks.
The ‘choice’The ‘choice’
Albanese and senior Labor strategists didn’t panic as the Coalition inched ahead in the opinion polls midway through 2024. They were confident the contest would tighten and turn in their favour when voters were confronted with the “choice” of a Dutton or an Albanese government.Albanese and senior Labor strategists didn’t panic as the Coalition inched ahead in the opinion polls midway through 2024. They were confident the contest would tighten and turn in their favour when voters were confronted with the “choice” of a Dutton or an Albanese government.
Their task, then, was to define what that “choice” was.Their task, then, was to define what that “choice” was.
The prime minister believes the fatal error in Kamala Harris’s US presidential campaign was a failure to offer a substantial policy alternative to counter Donald Trump’s America-first agenda.The prime minister believes the fatal error in Kamala Harris’s US presidential campaign was a failure to offer a substantial policy alternative to counter Donald Trump’s America-first agenda.
Since August last year Albanese and his team have been devising what’s described internally as the “offer”, a second-term agenda built on investments in Medicare, education and childcare.Since August last year Albanese and his team have been devising what’s described internally as the “offer”, a second-term agenda built on investments in Medicare, education and childcare.
The pitch to voters in 2025 would also frame the “risk”, highlighting the supposed threat a Dutton government poses to those essential services.The pitch to voters in 2025 would also frame the “risk”, highlighting the supposed threat a Dutton government poses to those essential services.
The two aims have converged around Labor’s central campaign commitment to “strengthen” the Medicare universal health system.The two aims have converged around Labor’s central campaign commitment to “strengthen” the Medicare universal health system.
After that first event in Dickson, Albanese and the health minister, Mark Butler, visited hospitals or healthcare clinics in Perth, Adelaide and Burnie, pledging new funding, spruiking Labor’s promises and warning it would all be in jeopardy if Dutton won on 3 May. That the Coalition has matched each of Labor’s health commitments has done little to dampen the attacks.After that first event in Dickson, Albanese and the health minister, Mark Butler, visited hospitals or healthcare clinics in Perth, Adelaide and Burnie, pledging new funding, spruiking Labor’s promises and warning it would all be in jeopardy if Dutton won on 3 May. That the Coalition has matched each of Labor’s health commitments has done little to dampen the attacks.
“Under our prime minister, you’ll get lower taxes and stronger Medicare. Under Peter Dutton, you’re going to get higher taxes and a gutted Medicare,” Butler told a press conference at Adelaide’s Flinders Medical Centre.“Under our prime minister, you’ll get lower taxes and stronger Medicare. Under Peter Dutton, you’re going to get higher taxes and a gutted Medicare,” Butler told a press conference at Adelaide’s Flinders Medical Centre.
Butler was a fixture in the campaign’s first week, travelling with Albanese along with the prime minister’s chief-of-staff, Tim Gartrell, media chief, Fi Sugden, and principal private secretary, David Epstein.Butler was a fixture in the campaign’s first week, travelling with Albanese along with the prime minister’s chief-of-staff, Tim Gartrell, media chief, Fi Sugden, and principal private secretary, David Epstein.
Butler’s presence was logical given the health focus. But he served another purpose as one of Albanese’s closest confidantes, offering a calming influence in the pressure-cooker of a campaign’s opening round.Butler’s presence was logical given the health focus. But he served another purpose as one of Albanese’s closest confidantes, offering a calming influence in the pressure-cooker of a campaign’s opening round.
So too was Penny Wong. The foreign minister was at Albanese’s side for much of the first week as the spectre of Donald Trump’s “liberation day” hung over the campaign.So too was Penny Wong. The foreign minister was at Albanese’s side for much of the first week as the spectre of Donald Trump’s “liberation day” hung over the campaign.
As Albanese dined with Greg Norman in Melbourne on Wednesday night, he was resigned to what the golfing legend’s friend, Trump, was about to inflict on Australia and the rest of the world at 7am the next morning.As Albanese dined with Greg Norman in Melbourne on Wednesday night, he was resigned to what the golfing legend’s friend, Trump, was about to inflict on Australia and the rest of the world at 7am the next morning.
The prime minister had danced around Trump and tariffs in the days prior, refusing to pre-empt the announcement or Australia’s response.The prime minister had danced around Trump and tariffs in the days prior, refusing to pre-empt the announcement or Australia’s response.
At 8.21am on Thursday, the dancing stopped. “This is not the act of a friend,” Albanese said.At 8.21am on Thursday, the dancing stopped. “This is not the act of a friend,” Albanese said.
Boxed into a cornerBoxed into a corner
If Albanese dances, Dutton bobs and weaves like a boxer.If Albanese dances, Dutton bobs and weaves like a boxer.
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It’s hard to pick him up on inconsistencies or outright falsehoods (like his repeated claim that he wants to cut “Labor’s 41,000 new public servants in Canberra” – less than a quarter live in the nation’s capital) because he drops a crumb and then barrels on to the next thing, in his signature flat, calm monotone. He doesn’t get mad or agitated, as Albanese sometimes does; he doesn’t screw up his face at a question he doesn’t like.It’s hard to pick him up on inconsistencies or outright falsehoods (like his repeated claim that he wants to cut “Labor’s 41,000 new public servants in Canberra” – less than a quarter live in the nation’s capital) because he drops a crumb and then barrels on to the next thing, in his signature flat, calm monotone. He doesn’t get mad or agitated, as Albanese sometimes does; he doesn’t screw up his face at a question he doesn’t like.
We asked on Thursday whether he still believes Donald Trump is a “big thinker” who brings “gravitas” to international affairs, as he said in February. Dutton countered that his comment was about Trump’s efforts to negotiate an agreement for Hamas to release Israeli hostages: close, but not quite, we interject mid-answer, saying his comments were actually in relation to Trump’s plan to take over and redevelop Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.We asked on Thursday whether he still believes Donald Trump is a “big thinker” who brings “gravitas” to international affairs, as he said in February. Dutton countered that his comment was about Trump’s efforts to negotiate an agreement for Hamas to release Israeli hostages: close, but not quite, we interject mid-answer, saying his comments were actually in relation to Trump’s plan to take over and redevelop Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
Dutton barely pauses, not deviating from his answer, even when confronted in real-time that he’s either misremembering or stretching the truth.Dutton barely pauses, not deviating from his answer, even when confronted in real-time that he’s either misremembering or stretching the truth.
Dutton gives little away, in fact. He listens quietly to the questions and answers the way he wants. He doesn’t get snippy or cranky. Even confronted with inconsistencies, he simply rolls on, unhurried and outwardly unfazed.Dutton gives little away, in fact. He listens quietly to the questions and answers the way he wants. He doesn’t get snippy or cranky. Even confronted with inconsistencies, he simply rolls on, unhurried and outwardly unfazed.
He is under pressure, though, and facing a ticking clock on questions he refuses to answer – there’s only so much longer he can promise that the gas modelling will come “soon”, that he will announce his public service cuts “at an appropriate time”. He’s getting questions on this nearly daily, and even joking that the “anticipation” of journalists will soon wear off.He is under pressure, though, and facing a ticking clock on questions he refuses to answer – there’s only so much longer he can promise that the gas modelling will come “soon”, that he will announce his public service cuts “at an appropriate time”. He’s getting questions on this nearly daily, and even joking that the “anticipation” of journalists will soon wear off.
The only visible measure of stress in the week was in a warm brickworks in McMahon, his back to a hot oven, when a large bead of sweat dripped conspicuously down his forehead as he declined to give details of his gas plan, his public service cuts, his nuclear details, and three floated-then-quickly-popped proposals for referendums.The only visible measure of stress in the week was in a warm brickworks in McMahon, his back to a hot oven, when a large bead of sweat dripped conspicuously down his forehead as he declined to give details of his gas plan, his public service cuts, his nuclear details, and three floated-then-quickly-popped proposals for referendums.
Match fitMatch fit
Filomena was restless.Filomena was restless.
The Canberra nonna’s daughter, Ren Knerr, had opened her home in the suburb of Downer to Albanese and the travelling media pack, providing a backdrop for an announcement to “outlaw” supermarket price gouging.The Canberra nonna’s daughter, Ren Knerr, had opened her home in the suburb of Downer to Albanese and the travelling media pack, providing a backdrop for an announcement to “outlaw” supermarket price gouging.
Filomena put on a generous spread, including shortbread, a cheesecake and a pile of struffoli, a doughnut-like desert from her native southern Italy. She doesn’t bake as much as she used to. She can’t afford to.Filomena put on a generous spread, including shortbread, a cheesecake and a pile of struffoli, a doughnut-like desert from her native southern Italy. She doesn’t bake as much as she used to. She can’t afford to.
But the prime minister was running late, possibly taking a private moment to decompress after an interview on ABC’s Insiders earlier that morning.But the prime minister was running late, possibly taking a private moment to decompress after an interview on ABC’s Insiders earlier that morning.
“Where is the prime minister?” Filomena asked one of Albanese’s staffers, to which they replied “he’ll be here soon”.“Where is the prime minister?” Filomena asked one of Albanese’s staffers, to which they replied “he’ll be here soon”.
“Yes, so will Christmas!”“Yes, so will Christmas!”
Albanese showed up moments later, greeting the family before tucking into the morning tea. The Labor leader cut out carbs to slim down ahead of the 2022 campaign but was happy to indulge this time.Albanese showed up moments later, greeting the family before tucking into the morning tea. The Labor leader cut out carbs to slim down ahead of the 2022 campaign but was happy to indulge this time.
“I’m trying to keep fit on the campaign and I’m breaking all the rules,” he joked.“I’m trying to keep fit on the campaign and I’m breaking all the rules,” he joked.
Albanese is campaign-fit this time. He’s been in election mode since the first week of January.Albanese is campaign-fit this time. He’s been in election mode since the first week of January.
He’s confident, too. A YouGov poll, published just hours before morning tea in Canberra’s inner-north, showed Labor on track to fall just one seat short of a majority, a dramatic turnaround from one month earlier. But Albanese, both publicly and privately, is adamant Labor can retain power in its own right.He’s confident, too. A YouGov poll, published just hours before morning tea in Canberra’s inner-north, showed Labor on track to fall just one seat short of a majority, a dramatic turnaround from one month earlier. But Albanese, both publicly and privately, is adamant Labor can retain power in its own right.
He spent the first week on the offensive, campaigning in the Liberal-held seats of Dickson in Brisbane, Deakin in Melbourne, Sturt in Adelaide and Braddon in northern Tasmania.He spent the first week on the offensive, campaigning in the Liberal-held seats of Dickson in Brisbane, Deakin in Melbourne, Sturt in Adelaide and Braddon in northern Tasmania.
The Labor camp is pleased with how smooth things are running. But the veteran political hard-heads close to Albanese and inside campaign HQ know campaigns are long, unexpected disruptions will occur and Dutton will rebound from a bad first week.The Labor camp is pleased with how smooth things are running. But the veteran political hard-heads close to Albanese and inside campaign HQ know campaigns are long, unexpected disruptions will occur and Dutton will rebound from a bad first week.
‘Not getting ahead of myself’‘Not getting ahead of myself’
The cost-of-living pressure on households, an incumbent killer during the global inflation crisis, won’t ease with a single rate cut, a $150 energy rebate and $5-a-week tax cut in 15 months’ time.The cost-of-living pressure on households, an incumbent killer during the global inflation crisis, won’t ease with a single rate cut, a $150 energy rebate and $5-a-week tax cut in 15 months’ time.
Labor remains deeply worried about Melbourne’s outer suburbs, where discontent with Jacinta Allan’s state government threatens half a dozen seats.Labor remains deeply worried about Melbourne’s outer suburbs, where discontent with Jacinta Allan’s state government threatens half a dozen seats.
After the popular premiers Roger Cook and Peter Malinauskas appeared with Albanese in Western Australia and South Australia, Allan was conspicuously absent from the prime minister’s two Melbourne press conferences.After the popular premiers Roger Cook and Peter Malinauskas appeared with Albanese in Western Australia and South Australia, Allan was conspicuously absent from the prime minister’s two Melbourne press conferences.
Albanese has had stumbles. One, literally, on stage after he addressed a mining union conference in the New South Wales Hunter Valley on Thursday afternoon.Albanese has had stumbles. One, literally, on stage after he addressed a mining union conference in the New South Wales Hunter Valley on Thursday afternoon.
Another at a press conference in Perth, when he said he couldn’t rule out forming a coalition with the Greens – the opposite of what he intended to say.Another at a press conference in Perth, when he said he couldn’t rule out forming a coalition with the Greens – the opposite of what he intended to say.
Albanese could have tripped up again on Friday, when asked at a Daily Telegraph-hosted event in Blacktown for one word to sum up the politically charged subject of migration.Albanese could have tripped up again on Friday, when asked at a Daily Telegraph-hosted event in Blacktown for one word to sum up the politically charged subject of migration.
The prime minister paused, hesitated and then replied: “Balanced.” It was a safe and measured response, avoiding a trap that may have so easily ensnared him in 2022.The prime minister paused, hesitated and then replied: “Balanced.” It was a safe and measured response, avoiding a trap that may have so easily ensnared him in 2022.
Albanese won the week. Even Dutton may admit that. But it’s just one week.Albanese won the week. Even Dutton may admit that. But it’s just one week.
“I’m not getting ahead of myself,” Albanese said. “Elections are hard to win, and there are four weeks left in this campaign.”“I’m not getting ahead of myself,” Albanese said. “Elections are hard to win, and there are four weeks left in this campaign.”
Guardian Australia political reporters Dan Jervis-Bardy and Josh Butler are travelling with the Albanese and Dutton campaigns Guardian Australia political reporters Dan Jervis-Bardy and Josh Butler have been travelling with the Albanese and Dutton campaigns
Guardian Australia political reporters Dan Jervis-Bardy and Josh Butler are travelling with the Albanese and Dutton campaigns Guardian Australia political reporters Dan Jervis-Bardy and Josh Butler have been travelling with the Albanese and Dutton campaigns