This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . The next check for changes will be
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/05/what-is-driving-the-winter-flu-crisis-in-england
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| What is driving the winter flu crisis in England? | What is driving the winter flu crisis in England? |
| (31 minutes later) | |
| Is influenza causing more problems than normal this year and what else is behind pressures on the NHS? | Is influenza causing more problems than normal this year and what else is behind pressures on the NHS? |
| As figures reveal the number of people admitted to hospital in England with flu quadrupled last month, we take a look at what is driving the crisis, and whether the situation is likely to be repeated next winter. | As figures reveal the number of people admitted to hospital in England with flu quadrupled last month, we take a look at what is driving the crisis, and whether the situation is likely to be repeated next winter. |
| Is flu causing more problems than normal this year? | Is flu causing more problems than normal this year? |
| Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) suggests flu levels and hospital admissions are higher than this time last year. | Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) suggests flu levels and hospital admissions are higher than this time last year. |
| According to the most recent figures, the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza increased to 14.09 per 100,000 population in the week ending 29 December 2024, compared with 10.69 per 100,000 the previous week, and 8.72 per 100,000 the week before. | According to the most recent figures, the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza increased to 14.09 per 100,000 population in the week ending 29 December 2024, compared with 10.69 per 100,000 the previous week, and 8.72 per 100,000 the week before. |
| “I don’t think it helped that the flu vaccine was offered later this year, compared to last, for some groups,” said Dr Simon Williams, a behavioural scientist and public health researcher at Swansea University. “However, it is not unprecedented to have a December spike in flu cases: we saw something similar in 2022.” | “I don’t think it helped that the flu vaccine was offered later this year, compared to last, for some groups,” said Dr Simon Williams, a behavioural scientist and public health researcher at Swansea University. “However, it is not unprecedented to have a December spike in flu cases: we saw something similar in 2022.” |
| The 2022-23 season was the first time flu had been widespread since the start of the Covid pandemic, and was associated with 14,500 excess deaths – the highest figure since the 2017-18 season. | The 2022-23 season was the first time flu had been widespread since the start of the Covid pandemic, and was associated with 14,500 excess deaths – the highest figure since the 2017-18 season. |
| Figures from NHS England have revealed there was an average of 4,469 flu patients in hospital in England every day in the last week of December 2024. While lower than the same point in 2022, when the figure reached 5,441, there is no sign yet that they have passed their peak. | Figures from NHS England have revealed there was an average of 4,469 flu patients in hospital in England every day in the last week of December 2024. While lower than the same point in 2022, when the figure reached 5,441, there is no sign yet that they have passed their peak. |
| Prof Julian Redhead, the NHS national clinical director for urgent and emergency care, said: “These latest figures show the pressure from flu was nowhere near letting up before we headed into the new year, skyrocketing to over 5,000 cases a day in hospital as of the end of last week and rising at a very concerning rate.” | |
| What else is behind the NHS pressures? | What else is behind the NHS pressures? |
| Flu is only one component of what some have nicknamed the “quad-demic” that is affecting hospitals. As Redhead noted, as well as flu there are ongoing pressures from Covid, while RSV and norovirus hospital cases are higher than last year. | Flu is only one component of what some have nicknamed the “quad-demic” that is affecting hospitals. As Redhead noted, as well as flu there are ongoing pressures from Covid, while RSV and norovirus hospital cases are higher than last year. |
| There are also the ongoing, chronic pressures the NHS is facing, including a lack of available beds. | There are also the ongoing, chronic pressures the NHS is facing, including a lack of available beds. |
| Sir Andrew Pollard, a professor of paediatric infection and immunity at the University of Oxford, said: “The latest data suggest that the spread of flu in the 2024-25 season is likely to be at its peak around now, which means maximum flu pressure on the NHS is now.” | |
| Who is most affected by flu? | Who is most affected by flu? |
| Flu can be particularly serious for older people, the very young, and those with underlying medical conditions. | Flu can be particularly serious for older people, the very young, and those with underlying medical conditions. |
| Indeed while UKHSA data suggests those aged between five and 14 are the most likely to be testing positive for flu, it is older people who are predominantly treated in hospital with the virus. | |
| According to UKHSA figures, in the most recent week, hospital admission rates for flu were highest in those aged 85 years and over, at 88.38 per 100,000 in the trust catchment population, with a rate of 26.1 per 100,000 for those aged up to four years. | According to UKHSA figures, in the most recent week, hospital admission rates for flu were highest in those aged 85 years and over, at 88.38 per 100,000 in the trust catchment population, with a rate of 26.1 per 100,000 for those aged up to four years. |
| What is the situation with flu vaccinations? | What is the situation with flu vaccinations? |
| One possibility is that a lack of protection from influenza may be contributing to the situation in hospitals. | |
| According to the latest figures from UKHSA for England, influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients up to 15 December 2024 was 37.6% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group, 33.1% in pregnant women, 40.3% in children aged two years, and 41.6% in children aged three years. By contrast the figure was 73.0% in adults over 65 years. | According to the latest figures from UKHSA for England, influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients up to 15 December 2024 was 37.6% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group, 33.1% in pregnant women, 40.3% in children aged two years, and 41.6% in children aged three years. By contrast the figure was 73.0% in adults over 65 years. |
| It is difficult to compare uptake across years because the start date for this winter’s vaccination programme for most adults was shifted to the beginning of October to tackle the issue of protection waning over time. UKHSA has said, however, that compared with the equivalent week last season, “vaccine uptake is lower for those aged two years, slightly lower for those aged three years, and higher for pregnant women”. | It is difficult to compare uptake across years because the start date for this winter’s vaccination programme for most adults was shifted to the beginning of October to tackle the issue of protection waning over time. UKHSA has said, however, that compared with the equivalent week last season, “vaccine uptake is lower for those aged two years, slightly lower for those aged three years, and higher for pregnant women”. |
| Despite this, the figures suggest a large number of people deemed at increased risk from flu remain unprotected. | Despite this, the figures suggest a large number of people deemed at increased risk from flu remain unprotected. |
| “There are 11 million people over the age of 65 years so that leaves 2.75 million unvaccinated,” said Pollard. “There is a strong age effect with hospitalisation and so the older adults in this population are more likely to be hospitalised.” | “There are 11 million people over the age of 65 years so that leaves 2.75 million unvaccinated,” said Pollard. “There is a strong age effect with hospitalisation and so the older adults in this population are more likely to be hospitalised.” |
| Another potential factor is the effectiveness of the flu vaccine: this can vary from year to year depending on how well the vaccine matches the circulating strain. | Another potential factor is the effectiveness of the flu vaccine: this can vary from year to year depending on how well the vaccine matches the circulating strain. |
| Pollard said: “We don’t know the vaccine effectiveness yet for this season as it takes time to collect the information and analyse the data, so that answer will come in several weeks’ time. Vaccination remains the cornerstone of protection for the individual and the NHS.” | |
| What else can people do to protect themselves? | What else can people do to protect themselves? |
| Williams said it was important to reduce close contact with others when symptoms hit, adding other useful actions included wearing a mask in hospitals and investing in an air purifier (Hepa filter), noting the latter potentially helps reduce the risk of airborne viruses spreading indoors. | Williams said it was important to reduce close contact with others when symptoms hit, adding other useful actions included wearing a mask in hospitals and investing in an air purifier (Hepa filter), noting the latter potentially helps reduce the risk of airborne viruses spreading indoors. |
| Prof Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser at UKHSA, also stressed the importance of limiting contact with others, especially vulnerable people, if symptoms arose. “If you have symptoms and need to leave the house, our advice remains that you should wear a face covering. Washing hands regularly and using and disposing tissues in bins can reduce the spread of respiratory illnesses,” she said. |