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Who are the rebels in Syria? Who are the rebels in Syria?
(31 minutes later)
The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria.The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria.
Without his group's sudden, devastating advance on Aleppo and then into Hama and Homs from their powerbase in the north-western province of Idlb, there is no doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened.Without his group's sudden, devastating advance on Aleppo and then into Hama and Homs from their powerbase in the north-western province of Idlb, there is no doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened.
But other rebel groups rose up too - and it was most likely that sense of the entirety of Syria turning on the regime that so swiftly led to its collapse.But other rebel groups rose up too - and it was most likely that sense of the entirety of Syria turning on the regime that so swiftly led to its collapse.
Al-Jawlani has for years endeavoured to shift the perception of his organisation from one to be feared for its ideological zealotry into one that could be accepted by Syrians as a pragmatic alternative to the Assad regime.Al-Jawlani has for years endeavoured to shift the perception of his organisation from one to be feared for its ideological zealotry into one that could be accepted by Syrians as a pragmatic alternative to the Assad regime.
Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?
HTS have led the charge into Aleppo
HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.
The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.
It was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad.It was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad.
It was proscribed as a terrorist group by the UN, the US, Turkey and other countries - and it remains so.It was proscribed as a terrorist group by the UN, the US, Turkey and other countries - and it remains so.
But al-Jawlani publicly broke ranks with al-Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and set up a new organisation, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with several other similar groups a year later.But al-Jawlani publicly broke ranks with al-Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and set up a new organisation, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with several other similar groups a year later.
There were doubts at the time - and some still remain - over whether HTS had completely renounced its links with al-Qaeda. But its message in the past week and a half has been one of inclusiveness and a rejection of violence or revenge.There were doubts at the time - and some still remain - over whether HTS had completely renounced its links with al-Qaeda. But its message in the past week and a half has been one of inclusiveness and a rejection of violence or revenge.
But the group has in the past been involved in internecine conflict with other rebel and opposition groups. That could well happen again.But the group has in the past been involved in internecine conflict with other rebel and opposition groups. That could well happen again.
The end of President Assad's rule does not in any way change for now the divisions within Syria, where different groups have held various territories outside goverment control.The end of President Assad's rule does not in any way change for now the divisions within Syria, where different groups have held various territories outside goverment control.
Efforts by HTS towards legitimacy have also been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses.Efforts by HTS towards legitimacy have also been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses.
How Syria's immediate political future develops will not only depend on the organisation's intentions and capabilities, as well as the competing claims and pressures from other groups, but also on the part that the major outside powers that have been most closely involved in the country'r recent history will play.How Syria's immediate political future develops will not only depend on the organisation's intentions and capabilities, as well as the competing claims and pressures from other groups, but also on the part that the major outside powers that have been most closely involved in the country'r recent history will play.
They include most notably Iran and Russia - which supported President Assad - and Turkey - which has backed rebel groups -, as well as the US which still maintains a military presense in the Kurdish-held east of the country.They include most notably Iran and Russia - which supported President Assad - and Turkey - which has backed rebel groups -, as well as the US which still maintains a military presense in the Kurdish-held east of the country.
They are now playing catch up, as they try to set a new strategic course to serve their interests in the aftermath of the downfall of the Assad dynasty.They are now playing catch up, as they try to set a new strategic course to serve their interests in the aftermath of the downfall of the Assad dynasty.
Why is there a war in Syria?
In March 2011, pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in the southern city of Deraa, inspired by uprisings in neighbouring countries against repressive rulers.
When the Syrian government used deadly force to crush the dissent, protests demanding the president's resignation erupted nationwide.
The unrest spread and the crackdown intensified. Opposition supporters took up arms, first to defend themselves and later to rid their areas of security forces. Mr Assad vowed to crush what he called "foreign-backed terrorism".
Hundreds of rebel groups sprang up, foreign powers began to take sides and extremist jihadist organisations such as the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda, became involved.
The violence rapidly escalated and the country descended into a full-scale civil war drawing in regional and world powers.
More than half a million people have been killed and 12 million have been forced to flee their homes, about five million of whom are refugees or asylum seekers abroad.
How did the rebel offensive come about?
The war in Syria had for the past four years felt as if it were effectively over.
President Bashar al-Assad’s rule had essentially been uncontested in the country’s major cities, while some other parts of Syria remained out of his direct control.
These include Kurdish majority areas in the east, which have been more or less separate from Syrian state control since the early years of the conflict.
There had been some continued, though relatively muted unrest, in the south where the revolution against Assad’s rule began in 2011.
In the vast Syrian desert, holdouts from the group calling themselves Islamic State still pose a security threat, particularly during the truffle hunting season when people head to the area to find the highly profitable delicacy.
And in the north-west, the province of Idlib has been held by militant groups driven there at the height of the war.
HTS, the dominant force in Idlib, is the one that has launched the surprise attack on Aleppo.
For several years, Idlib remained a battleground as Syrian government forces tried to regain control.
But a ceasefire deal in 2020 brokered by Russia, which has long been Assad’s key ally, and Turkey, which has backed the rebels, has largely held.
About four million people live there - most of them displaced from towns and cities that Assad’s forces won back from rebels in a brutal war of attrition.
Aleppo was one of the bloodiest battlegrounds and represented one of the rebels’ biggest defeats.
To achieve victory, President Assad could not depend on the country’s under-equipped and poorly motivated conscript army alone, which soon became dangerously stretched and regularly unable to hold positions against rebel attacks.
Instead, he came to rely heavily on Russian airpower and Iranian military help on the ground - mainly through militias sponsored by Tehran.
These included Hezbollah.
There is little doubt that the setback Hezbollah has suffered recently from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, as well as Israeli strikes on Iranian military commanders in Syria, has played a significant part in the decision by jihadist and rebel groups in Idlib to make their sudden, unexpected move on Aleppo.
In the past few months, Israel has intensified its attacks on Iranian-linked groups as well as their supply lines, inflicting serious damage on the networks that have kept these militias, including Hezbollah, operative in Syria.
Without them, President Assad’s forces were left exposed.