This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . The next check for changes will be
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyvyvzrw5eo
The article has changed 15 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 6 | Version 7 |
|---|---|
| Irish election tallies predict upset for some ministers | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Counting will start across the Republic of Ireland at 09:00 local time | Counting will start across the Republic of Ireland at 09:00 local time |
| Counting has begun in the Irish general election, as exit polls suggest a close contest between the three major parties. | Counting has begun in the Irish general election, as exit polls suggest a close contest between the three major parties. |
| Figures from Friday's exit poll show Sinn Féin slightly ahead of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in first preference votes. | Figures from Friday's exit poll show Sinn Féin slightly ahead of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in first preference votes. |
| Early tallies predict that some government ministers may struggle to retain their seats. | |
| A record number of 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are set to be elected, up from 160 in 2020 following a constituency shake-up. | A record number of 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are set to be elected, up from 160 in 2020 following a constituency shake-up. |
| You can follow live results here. | |
| There are now 43 Dáil constituencies (up from 39 in 2020) which will elect between three and five TDs each. | There are now 43 Dáil constituencies (up from 39 in 2020) which will elect between three and five TDs each. |
| One seat in the Dáil goes to the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), so 88 TDs is the number required for an overall majority. | One seat in the Dáil goes to the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), so 88 TDs is the number required for an overall majority. |
| More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats. | More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats. |
| The counting of votes at more than 40 centres across the Republic began at 09:00 local time, with the first results expected later in the afternoon. | The counting of votes at more than 40 centres across the Republic began at 09:00 local time, with the first results expected later in the afternoon. |
| What did Friday's exit poll say? | What did Friday's exit poll say? |
| The exit poll shows a three-way race between the biggest parties | The exit poll shows a three-way race between the biggest parties |
| The figures, published at 22:00 local time, indicated that Sinn Féin has 21.1% of first preference votes, with Fine Gael having 21% and Fianna Fáil sitting in third with 19.5%. | The figures, published at 22:00 local time, indicated that Sinn Féin has 21.1% of first preference votes, with Fine Gael having 21% and Fianna Fáil sitting in third with 19.5%. |
| It also suggested that 20% of the second preference votes goes to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%. | It also suggested that 20% of the second preference votes goes to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%. |
| The exit poll was carried out by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and was based on 5,018 completed interviews outside polling stations. | The exit poll was carried out by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and was based on 5,018 completed interviews outside polling stations. |
| It has a margin of error of 1.4%. | It has a margin of error of 1.4%. |
| The results also suggest a close battle between the smaller parties with less than 2% separating Labour, the Green Party and Social Democrats. | The results also suggest a close battle between the smaller parties with less than 2% separating Labour, the Green Party and Social Democrats. |
| In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin secured 24.53% first preference votes, while Fianna Fáil obtained 22.18% and Fine Gael got 20.86%. | In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin secured 24.53% first preference votes, while Fianna Fáil obtained 22.18% and Fine Gael got 20.86%. |
| Support for independent candidates appears to have dropped, if the exit poll figures reflect the final result, from 15% in 2020 to 12%. | Support for independent candidates appears to have dropped, if the exit poll figures reflect the final result, from 15% in 2020 to 12%. |
| Analysis | Analysis |
| If the exit poll is right, Sinn Féin is on course to win the popular vote for the second general election in a row. | If the exit poll is right, Sinn Féin is on course to win the popular vote for the second general election in a row. |
| But just like in 2020 it has no clear path to power. | But just like in 2020 it has no clear path to power. |
| The outgoing coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are well-placed to have the numbers needed to return to the government benches with the support of a smaller party. | The outgoing coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are well-placed to have the numbers needed to return to the government benches with the support of a smaller party. |
| If the polls are correct the pair could return with between 75 and 80 seats which will leave them just short of the 88 needed for an overall majority. | If the polls are correct the pair could return with between 75 and 80 seats which will leave them just short of the 88 needed for an overall majority. |
| Sinn Féin will hope it performs better than the poll suggests, as it did in 2020. | Sinn Féin will hope it performs better than the poll suggests, as it did in 2020. |
| But it may not be enough to form the coalition of left-leaning parties excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. | But it may not be enough to form the coalition of left-leaning parties excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. |
| Sinn Féin is on course to win the popular vote for the second general election in a row | Sinn Féin is on course to win the popular vote for the second general election in a row |
| Emerging trends | Emerging trends |
| BBC News NI's Aoife Moore in Dublin | BBC News NI's Aoife Moore in Dublin |
| Early tallies are predicting an upset for some government ministers. | Early tallies are predicting an upset for some government ministers. |
| Although not all boxes are open, trends are beginning to emerge. | Although not all boxes are open, trends are beginning to emerge. |
| In Wicklow, which has four seats, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is in fifth place. | In Wicklow, which has four seats, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is in fifth place. |
| Health had been a hot topic in the election campaign as waiting lists continue to rise. | Health had been a hot topic in the election campaign as waiting lists continue to rise. |
| Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Simon Harris is in the same constituency and is leading the way in early tallies. | Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Simon Harris is in the same constituency and is leading the way in early tallies. |
| In Dublin Mid-West, Minister for Children, the Green Party's Roderic O'Gorman, is in trouble at this early stage, currently in sixth place. | In Dublin Mid-West, Minister for Children, the Green Party's Roderic O'Gorman, is in trouble at this early stage, currently in sixth place. |
| O'Gorman had been put in the unenviable position of having responsibility for asylum seeker integration and accommodation - something the current government struggled to get a handle on amid a misinformation campaign from the far right and lack of available beds for refugees. | O'Gorman had been put in the unenviable position of having responsibility for asylum seeker integration and accommodation - something the current government struggled to get a handle on amid a misinformation campaign from the far right and lack of available beds for refugees. |
| Meanwhile, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is likely to take the first seat in the Dublin Central constituency. | Meanwhile, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is likely to take the first seat in the Dublin Central constituency. |
| Social Democrat Gary Gannon and Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe also look safe in their seats. | Social Democrat Gary Gannon and Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe also look safe in their seats. |
| The final seat looks likely to be a close race between the Labour Party senator Marie Sherlock and Independent candidate Gerard Hutch. | The final seat looks likely to be a close race between the Labour Party senator Marie Sherlock and Independent candidate Gerard Hutch. |
| Hutch, also known at The Monk, was cleared of murdering a man during a boxing weigh-in at a Dublin hotel in 2016. | |
| Earlier this month, he was released on bail from custody in Spain. | |
| Hutch was one of nine people arrested in Spain as part of a joint international investigation between the Garda National Bureau of Criminal Investigation and the Guardia Civil into money laundering by the Hutch Organised Crime Group. | |
| How the votes will be counted | How the votes will be counted |
| The Republic of Ireland elects its government using a system of proportional representation known as the single transferable vote. | The Republic of Ireland elects its government using a system of proportional representation known as the single transferable vote. |
| Voters rank candidates in their constituency in order of preference and candidates have to reach a certain number of votes in order to be elected. | Voters rank candidates in their constituency in order of preference and candidates have to reach a certain number of votes in order to be elected. |
| Counting the ballots takes place in multiple rounds. | Counting the ballots takes place in multiple rounds. |
| Each ballot is initially credited to the first choice. | Each ballot is initially credited to the first choice. |
| Once a candidate receives the number of votes required, they are elected and any remaining ballots that are marked with them as first choice are transferred to the second ranked preferences. | Once a candidate receives the number of votes required, they are elected and any remaining ballots that are marked with them as first choice are transferred to the second ranked preferences. |
| Ballots continue to be transferred to the next usable preference until all of the seats in the constituency are filled with candidates who have reached the quota. | Ballots continue to be transferred to the next usable preference until all of the seats in the constituency are filled with candidates who have reached the quota. |
| Read more: How the Republic of Ireland will elect its next parliament | Read more: How the Republic of Ireland will elect its next parliament |
| Once all the seats are filled, the next phase of the process will begin, the task of forming a new government. | Once all the seats are filled, the next phase of the process will begin, the task of forming a new government. |
| When will the results be known? | When will the results be known? |
| Due to the voting system, counting can sometimes last multiple days, and forming a government can take even longer. | Due to the voting system, counting can sometimes last multiple days, and forming a government can take even longer. |
| It took four months after the last general election in 2020 before Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party reached a deal to form a government. | It took four months after the last general election in 2020 before Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party reached a deal to form a government. |
| Sinn Féin became the leading opposition party, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both already ruled them out as a potential coalition partner. | Sinn Féin became the leading opposition party, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both already ruled them out as a potential coalition partner. |
| The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on 18 December but it is unlikely coalition negotiations will have finished by then. | The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on 18 December but it is unlikely coalition negotiations will have finished by then. |
| A government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new Taoiseach (Irish prime minister), but this isn't expected to take place before 2025. | A government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new Taoiseach (Irish prime minister), but this isn't expected to take place before 2025. |
| There will be coverage of the election results on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday and on BBC One NI on Sunday Politics at 10:00 GMT. | There will be coverage of the election results on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday and on BBC One NI on Sunday Politics at 10:00 GMT. |
| The BBC News NI website will be running a live page with the latest updates over the weekend. | The BBC News NI website will be running a live page with the latest updates over the weekend. |