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Anthony Zurcher: What I'm seeing from results so far Anthony Zurcher: This race is tilting towards Trump
(about 2 hours later)
Watch: The state of the race so far in 60 seconds The US presidential election is far from decided, but the playing field appears to be steadily tilting toward Donald Trump.
Hopes – on both sides – that there could have been some kind of decisive last-minute movement of voter preferences one way or the other appear to be unfounded. The electoral map is beginning to look more like 2016, when Trump won, than 2020, when he lost.
Polls are closed across many of the East Coast battleground states, and votes are being tabulated at a rapid clip. An early picture of this historic presidential race is beginning to come into view. Across the US, in counties that have reported their results, the former president is making modest but noticeable headway.
While the final outcome is still in doubt, it appears increasingly likely that America is in for another nail-biter of an election. Trump has been projected to win North Carolina, the first of the seven battleground states to be decided. He leads in Georgia, on the back of a strong performance in traditional rural areas.
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Full results: Check the count state by stateFull results: Check the count state by state
When will we know who has won?When will we know who has won?
In Georgia and North Carolina – states that Donald Trump all but has to win – the former president is doing even better in the traditional rural areas than he did in 2020. Kamala Harris is matching Joe Biden’s totals in the urban and suburban counties, but so far she has not made a marked improvement.
While these vote margins could shift, narrow Trump victories in Georgia and North Carolina would mean all eyes once again turn to the Democratic “Blue Wall” states along the Great Lakes. The scenario where Harris delivers a knock-out punch on election night would fail to materialise. Kamala Harris is largely matching Joe Biden’s totals in the urban and suburban counties, but so far it has not been enough for her to close the gap with the former president.
At that point, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania become her best – perhaps only – path to the White House. And in Pennsylvania, the final results might not be known for days. The Sun Belt door to a Harris presidential victory is slamming shut. North Carolina, the one battleground state that Trump won in 2020, remains in his column.
We’ve also got another batch of exit poll data, shedding light on the divide between men and women in this election. All eyes are again turning to the Democratic “Blue Wall” states along the Great Lakes, where Trump has also built narrow leads. There are indications that Harris is not meeting Democratic expectations in the urban and suburban areas of those states, either, and that could be the difference between victory and defeat.
The Harris campaign is still pointing toward a path to victory along these great lake states, but if the tide turns in her favour, the shift won’t happen until the big cities finish reporting their tallies. That will take hours if not days.
In close presidential elections, key battleground states tend to break in one direction. So far, the movement has been toward the Republicans – both for Donald Trump and for many of the party’s top Senate candidates.
At Trump’s election-watch party in Mar-a-Lago, the mood is festive. At Howard University, where Harris faithful have gathered, the situation is tense.
If the current electoral trends continue, former president Trump will be on his way toward becoming president-elect Trump.
Anxiety v excitement: BBC correspondents report from the Harris and Trump HQs
A batch of exit poll data also provides some early clues about how Americans voted, shedding light on the divide between men and women in this election.
Not surprisingly, a majority of women are backing Kamala Harris, while men are giving their support to Donald Trump.Not surprisingly, a majority of women are backing Kamala Harris, while men are giving their support to Donald Trump.
What is a bit surprising, at least according to these findings, is that the 54% of women voting for Harris doesn’t match the 57% that backed Joe Biden in 2020.What is a bit surprising, at least according to these findings, is that the 54% of women voting for Harris doesn’t match the 57% that backed Joe Biden in 2020.
All that talk of a historic political divide between the two genders may have been premature.All that talk of a historic political divide between the two genders may have been premature.
Exit poll results often shift as the hours tick by and should be seen as general guide and not a detailed map, but if Democrats have lost ground with women voters compared to four years ago, it would be extremely concerning for the Harris camp.Exit poll results often shift as the hours tick by and should be seen as general guide and not a detailed map, but if Democrats have lost ground with women voters compared to four years ago, it would be extremely concerning for the Harris camp.
One thing is clear at this point, however. Turnout in this election is once again approaching the highest level in modern American history. It may even eclipse the 65.9% mark set in 2020.One thing is clear at this point, however. Turnout in this election is once again approaching the highest level in modern American history. It may even eclipse the 65.9% mark set in 2020.
Both Trump and Harris have repeatedly said that the stakes in this election are high. The American public seems to have heeded that call.Both Trump and Harris have repeatedly said that the stakes in this election are high. The American public seems to have heeded that call.
This analysis will be updated as more results come in.This analysis will be updated as more results come in.
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