Can a deadlocked Holyrood agree any major reforms?

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It’s been a week dominated by talk of budgets, and the difference that financial capital can make to a government.

But political capital has played a big role too, with the Scottish government ditching some big justice reforms and its plans for a National Care Service looking increasingly wobbly.

The fires started by Humza Yousaf’s decision to end the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens - and consequently his own premiership - continue to burn.

John Swinney is acutely aware of the fact his administration does not carry a majority in the Holyrood chamber.

With this now impacting on the legislation they are attempting to pass, what are the chances of any major reforms making it through parliament before the next election?

John Swinney wanted to build bridges as first minister, but is short on political capital

It was announced this week that sweeping reforms to the justice system were to be watered down, after Justice Secretary Angela Constance admitted there was "not enough cross-party support" for them.

Plans for judge-only rape trials were dropped, along with a proposal to slim down juries.

What is left is mostly the proposal to do away with the Not Proven verdict - plans which Nicola Sturgeon’s government came up with in 2022.

One of the biggest Sturgeon-era legacy projects, the National Care Service, looks increasingly doomed after the Greens joined the other opposition parties in turning against the current vision.

The legislation to set up the service could be marooned at committee stage, with little prospect of ministers coming up with amendments which would please anyone.

Even if the bill was somehow passed, the groups which would actually help the system function - like councils, health boards and staff unions - have also lined up against it.

Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater were kicked out of government less than six months ago

Finance Secretary Shona Robison had already cut back on a number of the government’s pledges in response to budget pressures.

That meant a return of peak rail fares, the scrapping of free bus travel for asylum seekers and a decision to follow Westminster in means-testing winter fuel payments.

Those financial cuts came after Mr Yousaf’s administration had binned a raft of more controversial policies.

Highly Protected Marine Areas were scaled back, the Deposit Return Scheme was kicked into the long grass, and attempts to defend Sturgeon-era gender reforms via the courts were abandoned.

Mr Swinney has followed suit by pushing for a UK-wide approach on banning conversion therapy - hoping that Sir Keir Starmer will bear the brunt of any culture wars which arise, rather than leading the charge as Ms Sturgeon did with self-identification.

Shona Robison will need much of the government's deal-making energy for her budget

So what’s left?

There are a good few bills on the table at Holyrood, but largely now working in safe territory which will not prove overly contentious.

There are some big education reforms going through parliament, with the replacement of the SQA and Education Scotland, but they are familiar fare by now having first been announced in 2021.

There are also questions about how different the new system will ultimately look, after ministers opted for a less radical approach than advisers suggested when it comes to exams.

There is the Housing Bill, which will introduce a new system of rent controls.

But that too faces accusations of being overly timid - the Greens say the rent controls do not go far enough, and Labour say the bill will not see a single house built.

MSPs are about to pass a bill with a new system of climate targets - but that’s only come about because of the failure to hit the old ones.

There is also the Land Reform Bill, which was announced in the 2021 programme for government and has been gradually inching its way through various consultation stages.

Land reform campaigner Andy Wightman - a former MSP - has called it “the least ambitious land reform bill ever introduced to the Scottish Parliament”.

Possibly the most controversial measure before the parliament is the proposal for assisted dying for terminally-ill adults - but that was tabled by Lib Dem MSP Liam McArthur, and it remains unclear how senior members of the government will vote on it.

Parties looking ahead to an election are unlikely to become much more friendly

When it comes to anything politically tricky, Holyrood is frankly deadlocked.

Russell Findlay is re-aligning the Conservatives to a position if anything even more at odds with the SNP's big-government approach.

Labour is desperate to win power for itself. The Greens are still smarting, and the Lib Dems are eyeing a recovery at the next election.

With that poll now on the horizon, there is little incentive for parties to start opening their arms to each other.

There also isn’t much time left for the government to come up with a game-changing new proposal, if they’re to get it through parliament.

Mr Swinney’s programme for government nodded to this grim political reality by proposing very little in terms of new ideas for legislation.

There are some significant proposals, like a bill to criminalise misogyny, but they are the culmination of work that has been in train for years. The misogyny bill is based on a review published in March 2022 - and the proposals should have broad support in parliament.

The first minister’s top priority is eradicating child poverty, but no big new reforms are planned - the Swinney strategy instead seems to be to knit together existing services and policies in a more efficient manner.

Financial pressures have eased somewhat, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves promising an extra £3.4bn for Holyrood next year.

However, the current political environment means almost all of the government's deal-making energies will be consumed with passing their own budget.

Talks will be held with all parties, but particular overtures are being made to the Greens to try to get a deal over the line.

There may be scope, with those extra funds from the Treasury, to restore some of their favoured projects and coax them into at least abstaining.

But beyond that budget bill, it is increasingly difficult to see MSPs in a partisan parliament headed by a government heading into its 18th year in charge managing to agree on anything substantial.