This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . The next check for changes will be

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo

The article has changed 27 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 15 Version 16
US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump? US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?
(5 days later)
Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.
The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is - will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?The big question now is - will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?
As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.
Who is leading national polls?Who is leading national polls?
Harris has had a small lead over Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July and she remains ahead - as shown in the chart below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number.Harris has had a small lead over Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July and she remains ahead - as shown in the chart below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number.
Harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers in the first few weeks of her campaign, building a lead of nearly four percentage points towards the end of August.Harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers in the first few weeks of her campaign, building a lead of nearly four percentage points towards the end of August.
The numbers were relatively stable through September, even after the only debate between the two candidates on 10 September, which was watched by nearly 70 million people. The polls were relatively stable in September and early October but they have tightened in the last couple of weeks, as shown in the chart below, with trend lines showing the averages and dots for individual poll results for each candidate.
In the last few days the gap between them has tightened, as you can see in the poll tracker chart below, with the trend lines showing the averages and the dots showing the individual poll results for each candidate. While national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the whole country, they're not the best way to predict the election result.
While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election.
That's because the US uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.That's because the US uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.
What is the electoral college?What is the electoral college?
Who is winning in swing state polls?Who is winning in swing state polls?
Right now the polls are very tight in the seven states considered battlegrounds in this election and neither candidate has a decisive lead in any of them, according to the polling averages. Right now the leads in the swing states are so small that it's impossible to know who is really ahead from looking at the polling averages.
If you look at the trends since Harris joined the race, it does help highlight some differences between the states - but it’s important to note that there are fewer state polls than national polls so we have less data to go on and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower. Polls are designed to broadly explain how the public feels about a candidate or an issue, not predict the result of an election by less than a percentage point so it's important to keep that in mind when looking at the numbers below.
In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the lead has changed hands a few times since the start of August but Trump has a small lead in all of them at the moment. It's also important to remember that the individual polls used to create these averages have a margin of error of around three to four percentage points, so either candidate could be doing better or worse than the numbers currently suggest.
In the three other states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - Harris had led since the start of August, sometimes by two or three points, but in recent days the polls have tightened significantly and Trump now has a very small lead in Pennsylvania. If you look at the trends since Harris joined the race, it does highlight some differences between the states.
In Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, the lead has changed hands a few times since the start of August but Trump has a small lead in all of them at the moment. It’s a similar story in Nevada but with Harris the candidate who is slightly ahead.
In the three other states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - Harris had led since the start of August, sometimes by two or three points, but the polls have tightened significantly and Trump now has a very small lead in Pennsylvania.
All three of those states had been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same then she will be on course to win the election.All three of those states had been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same then she will be on course to win the election.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day that Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in the seven swing states.In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day that Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in the seven swing states.
In Pennsylvania, Biden was behind by nearly 4.5 percentage points when he dropped out, as the chart below shows. It is a key state for both campaigns as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.In Pennsylvania, Biden was behind by nearly 4.5 percentage points when he dropped out, as the chart below shows. It is a key state for both campaigns as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.
How are these averages created?How are these averages created?
The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, external, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, external, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.
As part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).As part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).
You can read more about the 538 methodology here, external.You can read more about the 538 methodology here, external.
Can we trust the polls?Can we trust the polls?
At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other in all of the swing states - and when the race is that close, it’s very hard to predict winners. The polls have underestimated support for Trump in the last two elections and the national polling error in 2020 was the highest in 40 years according to a post-mortem by polling experts - so there’s good reason to be cautious about them going into this year’s election.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population. The polling miss in 2016 was put down to voters changing their minds in the final days of the campaign and because college-educated voters - who were more likely to support Hillary Clinton - had been over-represented in polling samples.
Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November. In 2020, the experts pointed to problems with getting Trump supporters to take part in polls, but said it was “impossible” to know exactly what had caused the polling error, especially as the election was held during a pandemic and had a record turnout.
Pollsters have made lots of changes since then and the polling industry “had one of its most successful election cycles in US history” in the 2022 midterm elections, according to analysts at 538, external.
But Donald Trump wasn’t on the ballot in the midterms and we won’t know until after election day whether these changes can deal with the influx of irregular voters he tends to attract.
Listen: How do election polls work?Listen: How do election polls work?
Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.
SIMPLE GUIDE: How you can get most votes but loseSIMPLE GUIDE: How you can get most votes but lose
EXPLAINER: The seven states that will decide the electionEXPLAINER: The seven states that will decide the election
GLOBAL: Harris or Trump? What Chinese people wantGLOBAL: Harris or Trump? What Chinese people want
ON THE GROUND: Democrats take fight deep into Trump countryON THE GROUND: Democrats take fight deep into Trump country
FACT-CHECK: What the numbers really say about crimeFACT-CHECK: What the numbers really say about crime
Read more about: Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | US electionRead more about: Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | US election