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2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages 2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages
(7 days later)
Find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest US presidential election opinion pollsFind out who’s up and who’s down in the latest US presidential election opinion polls
On 21 July, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris. This historic move changed the landscape of the election and how many felt about the race. As the election enters its final weeks, Guardian US is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring. We will update our averages once a week, or more if there is major news.On 21 July, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris. This historic move changed the landscape of the election and how many felt about the race. As the election enters its final weeks, Guardian US is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring. We will update our averages once a week, or more if there is major news.
Latest pollsLatest polls
Polling average over a moving 10-day periodPolling average over a moving 10-day period
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Latest analysis: Harris’s national poll lead is increasing. Even by small margins, these increases may turn out to be significant. Poll-watchers are saying that Harris might not need as big a popular vote lead as Democrats have needed in the past. The reason, roughly summarised, is that while Harris is sustaining narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump is polling better than four years ago in states he still has little chance of winning. An improvement in a non-competitive state is an improvement that will not help him win. Latest analysis: With her highest national polling average since July, Harris is now leading in five of seven key swing states. Nationally, the Guardian’s tracker shows Harris with 49.3% of the vote, compared with 46% for Trump. The election is a month away, and already an estimated 1.4 million Americans have voted as of midday on Friday.
With just over five weeks to go before polling day, none of this is predictive of a final outcome. But it may suggest a scenario where the candidate destined for the White House is the one who wins the most votes – which, after all, is how democracy is meant to work. – Robert Tait, 28 September The race is still extremely close. The simplest path to collecting the 270 electoral votes needed to win is still the blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. While Harris leads Trump in all three according to the Guardian’s analysis (Pennsylvania by 1.2 points, Michigan by 0.1 points and Wisconsin by 2.2 points), those advantages are quite slim. – Sam Levine, 5 October
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Polling over timePolling over time
Polling average over a moving 10-day period. Each circle represents an individual poll result and is sized by 538's pollster ratingPolling average over a moving 10-day period. Each circle represents an individual poll result and is sized by 538's pollster rating
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Notes on dataNotes on data
To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for national polls. Our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. If there were no polls over the the 10-day period, we leave the average blank.To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for national polls. Our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. If there were no polls over the the 10-day period, we leave the average blank.
Polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. Averages from states with small numbers of polls are also more susceptible to errors and biases. Our averages are an estimate of the support that the candidates have in key swing states and on the national stage. The election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in November.Polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. Averages from states with small numbers of polls are also more susceptible to errors and biases. Our averages are an estimate of the support that the candidates have in key swing states and on the national stage. The election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in November.
Read more about the US election:Read more about the US election:
Harris regains small poll lead post-debate as US election inches closerHarris regains small poll lead post-debate as US election inches closer
Can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election?Can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election?
Who is running for president?Who is running for president?
Sign up for The Stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 US presidential electionSign up for The Stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 US presidential election
Read our polling analyses from 7 September, 4 September and 30 AugustRead our polling analyses from 7 September, 4 September and 30 August
Harris regains small poll lead post-debate as US election inches closerHarris regains small poll lead post-debate as US election inches closer
Can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election?Can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election?
Who is running for president?Who is running for president?
Sign up for The Stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 US presidential electionSign up for The Stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 US presidential election
Read our polling analyses from 7 September, 4 September and 30 AugustRead our polling analyses from 7 September, 4 September and 30 August
Candidate illustrations by Sam KerrCandidate illustrations by Sam Kerr
Candidate illustrations by Sam KerrCandidate illustrations by Sam Kerr