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The U.S. Has a New Set of Tools for Bullying the World The U.S. Has a New Set of Tools for Bullying the World
(about 16 hours later)
The greatest collateral damage from last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine has been to various Western European members of NATO, which suddenly find their national interests subordinated to those of their strongest ally.The greatest collateral damage from last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine has been to various Western European members of NATO, which suddenly find their national interests subordinated to those of their strongest ally.
The United States has long wanted Europeans to kick over two of the pillars on which their economies rest: imports of cheap energy from Russia and exports of advanced manufactures to China, Russia’s ally. With the Russian invasion last year, these demands became more importunate. Europe has largely complied with them. The European Union voted for an embargo of Russian oil in the early days of the war. Germany, where dependence on China is arguably strongest, published its first comprehensive strategy for “de-risking” its China trade this past summer.The United States has long wanted Europeans to kick over two of the pillars on which their economies rest: imports of cheap energy from Russia and exports of advanced manufactures to China, Russia’s ally. With the Russian invasion last year, these demands became more importunate. Europe has largely complied with them. The European Union voted for an embargo of Russian oil in the early days of the war. Germany, where dependence on China is arguably strongest, published its first comprehensive strategy for “de-risking” its China trade this past summer.
The cost has been high. In Germany’s case, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predict that it will perform worse this year than any other advanced economy. Certainly there are many reasons for Germany’s slowdown: Interest rates are high, supply chains have been disrupted by disease and war, and the country’s car industry faces new competition from electric vehicles. But it does not help that, as the sociologist Wolfgang Streeck wrote recently in American Affairs magazine, Germany is being asked to participate in “an economic war that is to some extent also a war against Germany itself.”The cost has been high. In Germany’s case, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predict that it will perform worse this year than any other advanced economy. Certainly there are many reasons for Germany’s slowdown: Interest rates are high, supply chains have been disrupted by disease and war, and the country’s car industry faces new competition from electric vehicles. But it does not help that, as the sociologist Wolfgang Streeck wrote recently in American Affairs magazine, Germany is being asked to participate in “an economic war that is to some extent also a war against Germany itself.”
While most Europeans deem Russia a threat on their doorstep, they do not feel the same way about China. A study this past summer by the European Council on Foreign Relations found large majorities, 62 percent continentwide, would wish for Europe to remain neutral should the United States and China ever enter into conflict over Taiwan. Yet last April, when President Emmanuel Macron of France urged his fellow Europeans to preserve their “strategic autonomy” in Sino-American matters and avoid getting swept up in “a logic of bloc against bloc,” he was rebuffed, not just by American politicians but also by certain of his European allies.While most Europeans deem Russia a threat on their doorstep, they do not feel the same way about China. A study this past summer by the European Council on Foreign Relations found large majorities, 62 percent continentwide, would wish for Europe to remain neutral should the United States and China ever enter into conflict over Taiwan. Yet last April, when President Emmanuel Macron of France urged his fellow Europeans to preserve their “strategic autonomy” in Sino-American matters and avoid getting swept up in “a logic of bloc against bloc,” he was rebuffed, not just by American politicians but also by certain of his European allies.
It used to be that when Europeans needed a bit of wiggle room from the American empire on a matter of desperate importance, they could simply claim it. In 2002 and 2003, the chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schröder, and President Jacques Chirac of France defied the government of George W. Bush, refusing to participate in the invasion of Iraq. What has changed to give American preferences the power of binding imperial fiat?
It is partly that Europe’s countries are militarily dependent on the United States. Since most of them have budgeted well under 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense for many years, they are probably more dependent than they were two decades ago. But the system by which the United States seeks to lay down laws for the whole world has more to do with economics than with brute force. Over the past two decades, the United States has made use of a novel, often mysterious set of tools for rewarding those who help it and punishing those who cross it.