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US warns of worsening Iraq crisis Elements of 'civil war' in Iraq
(about 2 hours later)
The security situation in Iraq will get worse unless action is taken to reverse increasing communal and insurgent clashes, a US intelligence report says. A US intelligence assessment on Iraq says "civil war" accurately describes certain aspects of the conflict, including intense sectarian violence.
The National Intelligence Estimate, produced by 16 US spy agencies, cites sectarian violence as the main threat. However the report, compiled by US security agencies, adds that the controversial term does not adequately sum up the complexity of the situation.
The report uses the controversial term "civil war" to describe key elements of the conflict, but says it does not adequately reflect its complexities. The National Intelligence Estimate gives a bleak assessment of Iraq's future unless the violence is stemmed.
The report was described as "tough but fair" by a White House spokesman. The White House described the report as "tough but fair".
The document uses "civil war" to describe elements of the conflict, including "the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence and population displacements".
Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq National Intelligence EstimateCoalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq National Intelligence Estimate
US national security advisor Steve Hadley said the report, presented to President George W Bush on Thursday, was "a tough look at Iraq". It says violence between Sunnis and Shias is being driven by increasing polarisation within Iraqi society, compounded by a weak government and security force.
But he said it was "not at war" with the president's new strategy on Iraq, announced last month, of sending 21,500 additional troops to the region. The UN says the war has produced the biggest movement of refugees in the Middle East since the creation of Israel in 1948.
'Civil war' However, the report points out that the conflict also includes Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgent attacks on coalition forces, and widespread violence by criminals.
The report said: "The term civil war does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict... Nonetheless the term civil war accurately describes key elements." US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said the term "civil war" over-simplified the situation.
The key elements are listed as "the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence and population displacements". "I believe that there are essentially four wars going on in Iraq: one is Shia-on-Shia, principally in the south; the second is sectarian conflict, principally in Baghdad; third is the insurgency; and fourth is al-Qaeda," he told reporters before the intelligence estimate was issued.
However, as well as sectarian violence, the report points out that there is also conflict within the Shia community and also from elements sympathetic to al-Qaeda.
The National Intelligence Estimate says violence between Sunnis and Shias is being driven by increasing polarisation, compounded by a weak government and security force.
'Ominous consequences''Ominous consequences'
It warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked. The report also warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked.
"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate.""Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate."
Bombings and mortar attacks are a daily threat to Iraqi civiliansIt adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."Bombings and mortar attacks are a daily threat to Iraqi civiliansIt adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."
US national security advisor Steve Hadley said the report was "a tough look at Iraq" but that it was "not at war" with the president's plans to send 21,500 additional troops.
The BBC's Ian Watson in Washington says the Bush administration is likely to use the report to justify the president's new strategy, as it concludes the Iraqi security forces will be hard-pressed to operate on their own against Shia militias.The BBC's Ian Watson in Washington says the Bush administration is likely to use the report to justify the president's new strategy, as it concludes the Iraqi security forces will be hard-pressed to operate on their own against Shia militias.
The document argued against a quick withdrawal of US troops, saying it would fracture the Iraqi army, strengthen al-Qaeda elements in the country and significantly increase violence.The document argued against a quick withdrawal of US troops, saying it would fracture the Iraqi army, strengthen al-Qaeda elements in the country and significantly increase violence.
It also says Iran and to a lesser extent Syria are contributing to a worsening of the situation.It also says Iran and to a lesser extent Syria are contributing to a worsening of the situation.
The report is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.The report is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.