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Tough N.Y. Election Holds Lessons for Republicans and Democrats Alike Tough N.Y. Election Holds Lessons for Republicans and Democrats Alike
(about 4 hours later)
With a few races still up in the air, New Yorkers were awakening Wednesday to signs of Democratic resilience in the face of some surprising Republican gains. With a few races still up in the air on Wednesday, New Yorkers were parsing returns and finding signs of both Democratic resilience and some surprising Republican gains.
Tuesday’s most consequential result — Gov. Kathy Hochul’s victory — still wasn’t being acknowledged by her Republican opponent, Representative Lee Zeldin, who said late that night that he still had hope that Election Day voters might put him over the top. The Associated Press, which called the race early Wednesday, disagreed. Tuesday’s most consequential result was Gov. Kathy Hochul’s victory over her Republican opponent, Representative Lee Zeldin, who ran a spirited campaign but fell short.
Still, Republicans did notch their strongest statewide performance in decades, using crime and inflation to outrun their party’s performance nationally. With the vast majority of the votes counted, Ms. Hochul’s margin looked more like that of a governor of a hotly contested swing state than deep blue New York. “This race was a once-in-a-generation campaign with a very close margin in the bluest of blue states,” Mr. Zeldin said in a concession on Wednesday afternoon.
Republicans also appeared to have picked up several congressional seats, an accomplishment in a state where registered Democrats outnumber them more than two to one. While many races remained unsettled, postelection analysis had already begun. Indeed, in a state where they are outnumbered by registered Democrats by more than two to one, Republicans posted their strongest statewide performance in decades, using crime and inflation to outrun their party’s performance nationally. With the vast majority of the votes counted, Ms. Hochul’s margin looked more like that of a governor of a hotly contested swing state than deep blue New York.
Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2002, but had visions that Mr. Zeldin — who ran a steady and energetic campaign focused on crime and inflation — would break that streak on Tuesday. But Ms. Hochul ran up the score in New York City — the mother lode of Democratic votes. She rode out Mr. Zeldin’s stronger showing on Long Island, his home turf, and in other suburban and upstate areas. Republicans picked up several congressional seats, including a shocking upset of Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democrats’ House campaign arm, as postelection analysis had already begun.
Republicans also had high hopes for down-ballot candidates like Joseph Pinion, a conservative commentator challenging Senator Chuck Schumer, and Michael Henry, a Queens attorney facing Attorney General Letitia James. Neither Mr. Pinion nor Mr. Henry managed to make either race close. Mr. Schumer’s race was called right after polls closed in Brooklyn — his and Ms. James’s home borough. Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2002, but had visions that Mr. Zeldin — a conservative and friend of Donald J. Trump who focused on crime and inflation — would break that streak. But Ms. Hochul ran up the score in New York City — the mother lode of Democratic votes. She rode out Mr. Zeldin’s stronger showing on Long Island, his home turf, and in other suburban and upstate areas.
Republicans also had hopes for down-ballot candidates like Joseph Pinion, a television commentator challenging Senator Chuck Schumer, and Michael Henry, a Queens attorney facing Attorney General Letitia James. Neither Mr. Pinion nor Mr. Henry managed to make either race close. Mr. Schumer’s race was called right after polls closed in Brooklyn — his and Ms. James’s home borough.
Ms. Hochul’s win came after a deep-pocketed campaign, and in spite of millions in outside spending on Mr. Zeldin’s behalf. The contest proved, yet again, that the biggest winners in statewide races may well be the consultants and other political professionals who work on campaigns.Ms. Hochul’s win came after a deep-pocketed campaign, and in spite of millions in outside spending on Mr. Zeldin’s behalf. The contest proved, yet again, that the biggest winners in statewide races may well be the consultants and other political professionals who work on campaigns.
Representative Elise Stefanik, the self-styled “Ultra MAGA” upstate congresswoman who is the third-ranking Republican in the House, had confidently predicted a “red tsunami.” She said her party could take 15 of the state’s 26 congressional seats in the next Congress. That big wave, however, didn’t swell, as control of the House remained uncertain on Wednesday, and a haul of 15 Republican seats in New York seemed mathematically impossible. Representative Elise Stefanik, the self-styled “Ultra MAGA” upstate congresswoman who is the third-ranking Republican in the House, had confidently predicted a “red tsunami,” saying her party could take 15 of the state’s 26 congressional seats in the next Congress. That big wave, however, didn’t swell, as control of the House remained uncertain on Wednesday, and a haul of 15 Republican seats in New York seemed mathematically impossible.
Republicans — who currently hold eight seats in New York — did make concrete gains, and may have a signature win if Assemblyman Mike Lawler is declared the victor in the 17th Congressional District, in suburbs north of New York City. On Wednesday morning, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, conceded to Mr. Lawler. The Associated Press has not yet called the race.. Republicans — who currently hold eight seats in New York — did make concrete gains, including a signature win for Assemblyman Mike Lawler, who knocked out Mr. Maloney in the 17th Congressional District, in the suburbs north of New York City.
Republicans also seemed to have picked up seats on Long Island and perhaps in the Hudson Valley, where Marc Molinaro, a former Republican candidate for governor, was on track to head to Congress. In central New York, the party may have also held onto a light-blue district: Brandon Williams, a first-time Republican candidate, had a slim lead over Francis Conole. Republicans also picked up seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, where Marc Molinaro, a former Republican candidate for governor, was declared the winner by The Associated Press in the 19th Congressional District, after losing a special election in August to Democrat Pat Ryan. Thanks to the state’s tortured redistricting process, Mr. Ryan then ran — and was leading — in the adjacent 18th Congressional District, though the race had not been called.
Also still unknown was the winner in the 22d Congressional District, a light-blue area: Brandon Williams, a first-time Republican candidate, had a slim lead over Francis Conole.
Ms. Hochul, who became governor last year after the resignation of Andrew M. Cuomo, became the first woman to be elected governor of New York, ending a nearly 250-year-long streak of men in the governor’s mansion. (Symbolically, that is: The supposedly haunted house became the home of chief executives only in the 1870s.)Ms. Hochul, who became governor last year after the resignation of Andrew M. Cuomo, became the first woman to be elected governor of New York, ending a nearly 250-year-long streak of men in the governor’s mansion. (Symbolically, that is: The supposedly haunted house became the home of chief executives only in the 1870s.)
Ms. Hochul acknowledged that milestone in her acceptance speech on Tuesday night in Lower Manhattan.Ms. Hochul acknowledged that milestone in her acceptance speech on Tuesday night in Lower Manhattan.
“I have felt the weight on my shoulders to make sure that every little girl and all the women of the state, who have had to bang up against glass ceilings everywhere they turn, to know that a woman could be elected in her own right,” she said. “And successfully govern a state as rough and tumble as New York.”“I have felt the weight on my shoulders to make sure that every little girl and all the women of the state, who have had to bang up against glass ceilings everywhere they turn, to know that a woman could be elected in her own right,” she said. “And successfully govern a state as rough and tumble as New York.”
Still, Ms. Hochul’s coattails did not extend far, or perhaps at all. While some key races were still too close to call, Democrats were clinging to supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature, with Senate Republicans gaining seats on Long Island and the Hudson Valley, and Assembly Republicans scoring wins in southern Brooklyn. Still, Ms. Hochul’s coattails did not extend far: While some key races were still too close to call, Democrats were clinging to supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature, with Senate Republicans gaining seats on Long Island and the Hudson Valley, and Assembly Republicans scoring wins in southern Brooklyn.
Not all Long Island congressional races were settled, but a Republican sweep of its four seats seemed possible. Two seats that include Nassau County — both vacated by retiring Democrats — were leaning toward Republicans. They included the Third Congressional District, where George Santos, a financier who attended the Jan. 6 riot, seemed poised to defeat the Democrat Robert Zimmerman. Two seats including Suffolk County appeared to be safely in Republican hands. Ms. Hochul praised unions for helping her pull out her win, and sure enough, unions like Local 32BJ of the Service Employees International Union said they had hundreds of members out knocking on doors in the last two days of the race, as well as working the phones.
Those suburbs fall within the television — and tabloid — market of New York City, which has been flooded by tales of murder and mayhem in streets and subways, many of which were amplified by Republican candidates. (One unwitting collaborator may have been Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, whom some Republicans, including Mr. Zeldin, cited as an ally on the issue of crime.) On Wednesday morning, several other groups were lining up to take credit, including the Working Families Party, a labor-backed organization that some said made up for a weak ground game by the governor’s team.
Luis Ferré-Sadurní and Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting. “In a moment of panic, where a $30mil campaign failed to do basic engagement, and the biggest county Dem party had lost legitimacy, WFP had clarity, clout and trust to energize and mobilize boots on the ground,” Sandy Nurse, a left-leaning Democrat who represents Brooklyn on the New York City Council, wrote on Twitter.
Some Democrats were deeply unhappy with the party’s congressional losses and other mediocre showings. They sought culprits, including Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, whom some Republicans, including Mr. Zeldin, cited as an ally on the issue of crime. Others criticized State Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who called — again — for his resignation on Wednesday.
Republicans had a big night on Long Island, sweeping four seats, including two in Nassau County vacated by retiring Democrats: the Third Congressional District, where George Santos, a financier who attended the Jan. 6 riot, defeated the Democrat Robert Zimmerman, and the Fourth Congressional District, where Anthony D’Esposito was declared the winner over Laura Gillen. Two seats including Suffolk County were also safely in Republican hands, including the one vacated by Mr. Zeldin.
Those suburbs fall within the television — and tabloid — market of New York City, which has been flooded by tales of murder and mayhem in streets and subways, many of which were amplified by Republican candidates.
It also seems likely that the 2019 bail reform law, which eliminated bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies, could remain a potential campaign issue for law-and-order candidates in future election cycles.
In one of the least stressful races, voters overwhelmingly approved the largest environmental bond issue in New York’s history, authorizing Albany to borrow up to $4.2 billion to clean up the environment, reshape infrastructure for climate change and reduce fossil-fuel emissions.
The measure allows the state to spend up to $1.5 billion to curb greenhouse-gas emissions as well as millions of dollars to reduce flooding, restore wetlands, conserve open space and build resilient infrastructure; 35 percent must be spent in disadvantaged communities.
Such a vote could have gotten a boost from the unseasonable weather: The week ending Nov. 7 was the hottest on those dates since record-keeping began in 1869, measured by averaging the week’s daily high temperatures.
The Associated Press also declared that three New York City measures designed to foster racial and economic equity had passed: one amending the City Charter with a “statement of values” calling for a “just and equitable city for all”; another creating an office to require and monitor “racial equity plans” from every city agency; and a third creating a new “true cost of living” measurement.
Luis Ferré-Sadurní, Anne Barnard, Jeffrey C. Mays, Michael Gold and Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting.